Here’s some reading for the holiday. I know the articles we’ve shared haven’t been very upbeat this year, but people have survived under worse political regimes than the Trump administration, and the economy has not collapsed despite enormous policy uncertainty and open corruption. The market this year has nonetheless performed strongly, with the S&P 500 up roughly 17–18% year-to-date, even in the face of forces that reasonably should weigh on growth—chaotic tariff policies, labor dislocation, persistently high prices, and rising fears of an AI-driven market bubble.
Will the market and the economy perform as well next year as they did this past one? Here are some (mostly rosy) S&P 500 price targets:
Below are articles by several forecasters laying out their expectations for the year ahead. I will add to these articles, so check back for more!
2026 Outlook: US Stocks and Economy, Charles Schwab, by Liz Ann Sonders, Kevin Gordon
We believe the macro environment will continue to be unstable given policy crosscurrents and a wobbly labor market, but stocks can likely churn higher given a firmer earnings backdrop.
Want to Know Where the Market Is Going? Don’t Trust This, or Any, Forecast. By Jeff Sommer, NY Times
Wall Street stock gurus are making predictions again. Our columnist got into the game with a number he doesn’t believe.
2026 Market Outlook: Key Themes and Predictions, Observer News Enterprise
As the final weeks of 2025 draw to a close, the global financial landscape is entering a pivotal transformation. The “AI Gold Rush” that defined the previous two years is evolving from a speculative frenzy into a disciplined era of monetization and operational efficiency. Simultaneously, a unique confluence of fiscal stimulus and central bank normalization is setting the stage for what analysts are calling a “non-recessionary easing cycle” for the year ahead.
[By “liquidity injection,” the author appears to be referring not to any guaranteed policy action, but to a mix of expected election-cycle fiscal spending and looser financial conditions if the Federal Reserve continues cutting rates. The former depends on legislative outcomes that remain uncertain, while the latter depends on inflation dynamics and economic data—not on Congress. Neither outcome is assured.]
