FED Beige Book & Portfolio Reviews (1/14/2026)
Back in the swing of things! Phil goes over our FED Beige Book & our Portfolio Reviews!
Timeline
0:00 – Market open reaction and sector selloff (tech weakness, defensive rotation)
1:10 – Oil, utilities, financials overview and Venezuela oil commentary
1:55 – Credit card stocks (Visa/Mastercard) and Trump interest-rate cap policy
4:10 – Small caps vs. mega caps and capital concentration discussion
6:45 – Credit access, fees, and systemic impact on lower-income consumers
10:20 – Viewer questions and discussion about camera/video format
12:55 – Index check: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow, oil, and market breadth
15:10 – Introduction to Fed Beige Book and AGI Round Table framework
16:20 – AGI Round Table market outlook and sector themes
18:00 – Explanation of AGI personas and analytical roles
19:35 – Roundtable Consulting Group live demo with “Anya”
23:00 – Consulting use cases for businesses and staffing/AI replicas
30:00 – Deeper explanation of AGI consulting workflow and capabilities
39:45 – Broader discussion on AI, labor displacement, and productivity
45:50 – Market outlook recap from AGI perspectives
49:10 – Political approval ratings and sentiment data
51:25 – Tesla, market resistance levels, and index consolidation
53:20 – Technical framework using moving averages and ranges
58:20 – Money Talk portfolio performance overview
59:45 – Synchrony (SYF) trade case study and risk management
1:06:15 – Stock familiarity, pattern recognition, and Buffett principles
1:09:35 – $700/month portfolio performance and long-term compounding
1:11:30 – New trade ideas (Helen of Troy and others)
1:17:50 – Comparing returns to hedge fund benchmarks
1:24:00 – Portfolio strategy principles (“be the house” options approach)
1:26:10 – Transition to detailed Fed Beige Book analysis
1:33:20 – Beige Book findings: growth softening, labor stress, tariffs
1:37:40 – AI impact on labor demand and business decision-making
1:49:20 – Policy uncertainty, tariffs, and deficit implications
1:56:00 – Fed policy outlook: cuts, QT, and inflation constraints
2:00:20 – Q&A on trades, silver market, and execution details
2:03:40 – Closing remarks and next webinar preview
Summary
Phil opened with a market rundown showing broad tech weakness, defensive rotation, and relative strength in energy and utilities, while cautioning that headline economic data is masking growing stress beneath the surface.
