From Iran to Ukraine: The growing risk of conflict ~ ask Ian
In this episode of “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down two high-stakes negotiations in Geneva: Russia-Ukraine and indirect US-Iran talks, calling both “underwhelming” with little progress.
Timeline
0:00 — Geneva Talks, Little Progress
Bremmer opens by noting indirect US–Iran negotiations in Geneva. Like the Russia-Ukraine talks, results were underwhelming. No breakthrough, no meaningful concessions.
The key theme: diplomacy is stalled.
0:40 — Escalation Pressure Rising
Urgency is increasing because of the “or else” factor — meaning potential military consequences if talks fail.
1:20 — US Military Positioning
A second US carrier group is rapidly approaching the Persian Gulf. Once in place, US forces would be fully capable of launching strikes on short notice. This signals credible preparation.
1:45 — Iran’s Defensive Moves
Iran is reacting seriously:
- Hardening or burying nuclear facilities
- Moving leadership (including the Supreme Leader) to secure locations
- Complicating any Israeli “decapitation strike”
Tehran appears to believe strikes are possible.
2:45 — Washington’s demands are sweeping:
- End uranium enrichment
- Remove highly enriched uranium
- End ballistic missile capabilities
- Stop support for regional proxy groups
Iran has shown limited willingness on nuclear issues and almost none on missiles or proxies. The US is not offering major sanctions relief in return. These terms go beyond the original nuclear deal.
3:35 — Trump’s Leverage Calculation
Bremmer argues President Trump appears to believe:
- Iran has limited retaliatory capability
- Previous Iranian responses were restrained
- Escalation risks are manageable
This perception may make military action more likely.
4:12 — Iran’s Main Counter-Lever: Oil
Iran signaled its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz through military exercises that briefly suspended traffic. Its message: “We can disrupt global oil supply.”
However, doing so would anger Gulf states that have stayed neutral — limiting how far Iran can go.
The US Appears Undeterred. Bremmer sees little sign that US negotiators or military planners are intimidated by Iran’s oil leverage.
5:08 — Strike Probability
Bremmer estimates the likelihood of US strikes is well above 50%.
The key uncertainty is whether the strikes are limited to nuclear/missile facilities or include broader action targeting the regime. No final decision appears to have been made yet.
Core Takeaways
- Negotiations are producing minimal movement.
- Military positioning is accelerating.
- US demands remain maximalist.
- Iran’s leverage (oil disruption) is real but constrained.
- Risk of strikes in the near term is high.
Bremmer’s bottom line: the situation could change quickly in the coming weeks, with a meaningful probability of military escalation.
