The Supreme Court Just Ruled Trump’s Tariffs Unconstitutional
By Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics
Timeline
0:00 – “The news is that the U.S. Supreme Court just ruled that Donald Trump’s tariffs — which have been basically the sum total of his economic policy since becoming president — are actually unconstitutional, and that only Congress has the authority to tariff countries over a prolonged period of time.
“There may be exceptions, according to the ruling, where Congress can defer that power to the executive for a limited period of time, but it’s always going to be subject to congressional review.”
0:37 – “At this moment, at the time of this recording, the Trump administration has not formally responded to the ruling, but I can guess what it’s going to be. It’s probably going to be a firm rejection of the ruling and a question of how to proceed.”
0:49 – “Step one is that the administration will probably find justification in other laws that are actually fuzzier — because all of those explicitly sunset unless Congress acts.
“Number two is that the Trump administration will go after the Supreme Court itself. The Trump administration has not shied — in fact, has gleefully gone after almost every institution in the United States, whether it’s the SEC or the Federal Reserve or the U.S. military or the lower courts. The idea that it won’t do that for the high court is ridiculous.”
1:20 – “Even though in this 6–3 decision, only one of Trump’s appointees actually sided with the minority — the rest of them sided with the majority here — that is irrelevant to his decision-making process.
“One possibility is that the Trump administration will start to pack the court — basically pick judges that he thinks he can control and force them through Congress, where the Republicans still hold a majority.”
1:48 – “This is how it’s going to go unless and until Congress actually starts legislating in a way that the body was designed by the Constitution, the Founding Fathers — which means standing up to the president.”
2:10 – “And for that to happen, you have to have at least 20 Republican senators and a lot more Republican reps be willing to side opposite of Donald Trump. Because unless you can reach a two-thirds supermajority, what the president says goes — because the president can veto anything that is passed by a simple majority.”
2:27 – “The timing of this guarantees that American politics are about to get a lot spicier than they have been this last year, because we have midterm elections coming up in November. They’re only seven, seven-and-a-half months away.
“Trump has made it very clear that any Republican who sides against him on any issue is going to face a primary challenge — and where he will support somebody who is functionally brain-dead but will do anything that he says.”
2:52 – “And so far, the MAGA core that supports the president has been broadly approving of his policies. So, we get a civil war within the Republican Party is probably the best-case scenario.”
3:05 – “That assumes that Trump doesn’t try to do something like he’s done with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and militarized parts of the federal government — which we cannot rule out.
“But that’s where we are right now. Trump is not going to abandon the tariffs. He’s just going to rename them, which will start a new legal fight, which will take months — unless Congress acts. And if Congress starts to act, it guarantees that the political situation on the American right, among the Republicans, gets really crazy. That’s where we are.”
Summary
What the Supreme Court Just Did
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Trump’s long-running tariff policy unconstitutional. The Court held that only Congress has the authority to impose tariffs on a prolonged basis. While Congress may temporarily delegate that power to the executive branch, such delegation must be explicit and subject to congressional review.
In short: tariffs are a legislative power, not a permanent presidential one.
The ruling was 6–3, and notably, most of Trump’s own appointees sided with the majority.
Why This Is a Big Deal
Peter frames tariffs as essentially the backbone of Trump’s economic policy. If those tariffs are struck down or severely limited, it removes the legal foundation for a major piece of his economic strategy.
However, Peter does not expect compliance.
What Happens Next
Peter outlines several likely responses:
1. The Administration Searches for Workarounds
He expects the White House to justify tariffs under other, “fuzzier” statutes. Many trade and national security laws allow temporary executive tariff authority, but most require congressional action to extend them. That creates legal vulnerability and sets up new court battles.
2. The Administration Attacks the Court
Peter argues that the Trump administration has already challenged multiple U.S. institutions — the SEC, Federal Reserve, military leadership, and lower courts. He expects the Supreme Court will not be treated differently, even though most conservative justices sided with the ruling.
3. Court Expansion or Institutional Pressure
He floats the possibility of attempts to “pack” or reshape the Court if political conditions allow, though that would require congressional cooperation.
Why Congress Is the Real Pivot Point
Peter emphasizes that the Constitution gives Congress control over tariffs. But Congress must act.
For Congress to override a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority. That would mean roughly 20 Republican senators (plus House members) siding against Trump — a major political risk given his influence over primary elections.
Trump has made clear that Republicans who oppose him may face primary challenges backed by his base. So lawmakers face a dilemma:
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Support Trump and avoid primary threats, or
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Reassert congressional authority and risk political retaliation.
The Political Timing
This ruling lands only months before midterm elections. Peter believes this dramatically raises the stakes. If Congress asserts itself, it could trigger internal conflict within the Republican Party. If Congress does nothing, the executive branch continues to push legal boundaries and the issue moves back into the courts.
He calls a Republican “civil war” the best-case scenario. He also notes the possibility of further executive escalation, drawing parallels to how immigration enforcement and federal authority have already been expanded.
Bottom Line
Peter’s core conclusion:
- Trump is unlikely to abandon tariffs.
- He will likely rebrand or restructure them under different legal authorities.
- That triggers new lawsuits and months of legal uncertainty.
- If Congress intervenes, it risks destabilizing Republican party unity ahead of midterms.
- If Congress does not intervene, the executive-legislative balance of power continues to erode.
Peter’s closing message is that this ruling does not resolve the tariff fight — it simply shifts it into a more volatile political phase.
