Portfolio Review & FED Minutes (2/18/2026)
Timeline
0:00 – Webinar intro + agenda (portfolio review, Fed minutes)
0:42 – Windows update / Yahoo default-search rant
1:01 – Recent content recap
1:55 – Portfolio review setup (short-term vs long-term review plan)
2:13 – S&P range review (6,800–7,000) + 50DMA / consolidation setup
3:43 – NASDAQ as “tiebreaker” (AI winners vs SaaS weakness)
4:24 – How moving averages “flatten”
6:09 – What technical analysis does/doesn’t do + trend analogy
8:02 – RSI basics + what current RSI implies
8:40 – Core market thesis: big-cap advantage + AI adoption pressure
10:30 – Tech spending baseline + AI replacing IT/software tasks
12:07 – “AI does your taxes”
13:49 – Range update + RSI speed/implication for downside limits
15:29 – 200DMA rising support + why further drop is less likely
18:19 – NASDAQ technicals (RSI 30 area, “death cross” mention)
19:15 – Stock list process + earnings review approach
20:17 – SaaS survival thesis: “fight back” with AI + branded/curated AIs
22:09 – Phil’s AGI backstory (Claude/Kyote/Bodie etc.)
26:53 – Future of branded corporate AGIs + SaaS business model shift
28:54 – “Warren AI” as options teacher (education tool concept)
29:24 – Platform-dependency risk (reliance on OpenAI/Anthropic parallels)
30:29 – Salesforce valuation drawdown + PE compression
32:12 – Analyst tracking / identifying “who knows what they’re doing”
34:21 – Using AI to monitor analyst notes + alerts
35:48 – Q&A: $700/month portfolio goal (10% target) + risk scaling
39:09 – “Teach you to fish”
41:25 – Q&A: CRM/SaaS risk debate + “fear trade” framing
43:51 – Model T analogy
48:34 – Uses Gemini to summarize the post + “be the house”
54:18 – “Matrix vs physical world” investing theme + centralization risk
57:56 – Trade of the year: Pfizer thesis
1:01:10 – Asymmetric risk + “free spreads” discipline
1:07:23 – Fed minutes arrive
1:07:50 – Adjustments over panic: “sell more premium” framework
1:09:41 – Macro/regulatory context
1:10:27 – Portfolio construction notes + red flags list
1:13:56 – Q&A: selling premium (calls vs puts; margin)
1:15:19 – Long-term vs short-term portfolios + hedge role + account sizing
1:17:02 – Q&A: don’t “catch up” copying hedges; wait for new setups
1:19:58 – “Good for new trade” tags in portfolio reviews
1:21:38 – AI-generated daily trade ideas + example (OXY)
1:25:01 – Tech hiccups / tries to pull up Fed minutes + context setup
1:30:22 – Fed minutes analysis: “stealth easing” + liquidity plumbing theme
1:36:54 – Housing affordability + why rate cuts don’t “solve” it
1:42:18 – “Hitting your own supply” (T-bills, deficits) + why it can unwind
1:48:16 – Phil’s recap: stealth easing + Fed politics + rate assumptions
1:51:32 – Closing remarks
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Transcript
Phil: What did I want to do today?
