Wartime Investing (3/11/2026)
Tough time to be dealing with anything right now, but Phil has got you covered!
Timeline
0:00 – Market overview and early index levels
3:40 – War impact on markets and geopolitical risk
7:40 – Media narratives and information chaos during conflict
11:00 – Oil supply, strategic reserves, and Strait of Hormuz risk
16:00 – Energy disruption scenarios and global economic impact
21:00 – Oil inflation, stagflation, and economic consequences
26:40 – Tech sector outlook and semiconductor discussion
29:30 – AI infrastructure, data centers, and strategic targets
31:00 – Market breadth and sector selloff analysis
34:30 – Magnificent 7, gold flows, and money supply dynamics
40:30 – Oil prices and consumer inflation effects
43:40 – Portfolio strategy: hedging vs moving to cash
49:00 – AI-generated news summaries and media automation
52:00 – Corporate tech news and autonomous driving developments
56:00 – Investor psychology during market declines
57:30 – Buying opportunities after selloffs
1:00:00 – War scenarios and asymmetric market risk
1:07:00 – Game theory and portfolio risk management
1:10:00 – Example trades: GLW and Nike
1:16:00 – Portfolio adjustments and selling premium in high VIX
1:20:00 – Airline fuel hedging example
1:24:00 – ULCC options trade discussion
1:27:00 – Taking profits vs holding positions
1:31:00 – GEO detention center business discussion
1:34:00 – Novo Nordisk shorting pressure example
1:37:00 – Bitcoin supply dynamics
1:40:00 – SoFi investment thesis
1:44:00 – Portfolio compounding and long-term strategy
Transcript
We can see what's going on. The Dow is down 350. The S&P is down. Now, the Dow, we don't care about the Dow. The Dow is a stupid index. So we kind of ignore it. The S&P — oh, I could bring my mic over here. Sorry, I got a cold on the boat, too. So my throat is scratchy.
All right.
