War Update & Money Talk Portfolio (3/25/2026)
Timeline
0:00: Bounce chart & the 5% rule explained
4:11: October chart update — range targets & war context
7:19: Market reaction to the war — sentiment & psychology
12:33: Dead cat bounce & weak bounce mechanics
15:32: Russell 2000 outperformance — why small caps are rallying
19:13: Reallocation dynamics — gold, silver, Bitcoin
21:24: Q&A: Blue Owl — covered call vs. bull call spread
31:34: Long-term portfolio vs. restricted portfolio — margin comparison
55:09: Q&A: Short puts — shorter vs. longer duration, how to decide
1:01:04: Q&A: Rolling mechanics explained
1:07:07: Round Table Consulting — Anya demo
1:19:19: Stock picks — war & peace scenarios
1:21:09: Barrick Gold deep dive
1:27:26: 10-year yield — danger zone at 4.50%
1:30:08: Fed rate policy & Trump's fiscal contradiction
1:45:42: 2026 core holdings watch list review
1:53:14: Closing thoughts — cash position & fresh horses
Transcript
So this is a bounce chart. Before — and in the good old days, we have now officially been doing this for 20 years. In the good old days before there were iPhones, we did have Excel, and the internet wasn't easy with graphics and stuff like that. It never even occurred to me to make a chart. I don't think in charts — that's another reason. I also think TA is total bullshit. When I think about something, I think more in spreadsheets and what numbers look like on a spreadsheet.
Anyway, so this is our balance chart, and the balance chart is just a mathematical representation of what you see here. We have the 5% rule, and what does the 5% rule say? It says we expect a correction of the move. So if you go to a longer chart — a much longer chart — we rallied from, let's say basically, 5,000 to 7,000.
