What China can learn about the limits of American military capacity
President Trump is stuck. Before he authorized a bombing campaign against Iran, his administration failed to plan for the possibility that Iranian forces would close the Strait of Hormuz. With no good options, Trump has been left to hope that the crucial shipping channel will “open up naturally.” Although Iran is far smaller and poorer than the United States, and many of its top officials have been killed in the past month, its remaining leaders are exercising considerable leverage over Trump and, at least publicly, are ignoring his demand for negotiations.
U.S. forces continue to carry out tactically complex operations, such as the rescue of an airman who ejected from a doomed fighter jet over Iranian territory. But far from resulting in a quick victory against an overmatched rival, Trump’s war in Iran is putting America’s strategic and military weaknesses on display for other rival nations—most notably China, the world’s other great military and economic power. Yet by revealing that the United States has not adapted enough to the latest changes in how military conflicts are fought, recent events could well alter Beijing’s risk-benefit calculations about, for instance, seizing Taiwan.
