Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.
Winston
Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).
JJennings
Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.
IHS4GOD
Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.
JBaker
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!
Jromeha
Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it.
I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.
Autolander
The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !
1234gel
I went LEVEL 4 because of YOU! That's right, buddy!! And I started putting my options trades in my comments...also because of YOU! That's hard to do. I Love PD!! He's just a man about Work!
Chris Valley (author)
Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!
Kustomz
Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS,
closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,
RMM
In options trading, one must remain flexible with the ability to adjust to take advantage of the unexpected moves in the market. It is like chess - spend most of your time strategizing the next move. A good understanding of options is necessary to change direction and make adjustments as the market moves against you. I have a friend that honed his option skills while a member of Phil's elite membership over a period of two years. With the education acquired, he made over $2 Mil in that period, trading options and following the plays put on by Phil. If making money is your goal, then he is the go-to guy, as he knows option strategies better than anyone, and market timing is also a skill he has mastered.
1234gel
100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!
SSDirk
Thanks for you guidance – Your "student" will be passing on the McMuffins and having Lobster dinners tonight!
Aquila
Aapl/Phil
Thanks for your advice, always appreciated.
So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop.
Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50
Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed.
And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings)
So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock.
Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not.
Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun!
More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset.
Thanks!
Maya1
This site, for me, is where I have learned how to use options & futures. It is also where I get a constant flow of new ideas. In addition, it's great to know that I have many sources, mostly Phil, if I get lost in a trade. I have been here for 8 years, and am grateful to PHIL and fellow members. I manage about half a million, and although I may not always achieve what Phil does, I am not complaining. I have learned so much. Thank you Phil!
DClark41
Thanks Phil, your note at the close was responsible for making those silly GOOG sellers pay for my NYC sojourn, nice!!
zeroxzero
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.
Tchayipov
I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.
Escohen5
Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )
Iflantheman & Gel1
Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!
Steven Parker
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade...
but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys....
and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
HJ Kobbeman
Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.
Skasiah
I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.
Autolander
Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks.
I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."
Zeroxzero
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Deano
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.
Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this year’s voting.
Although the outcome in the 2020 presidential race remained uncertain the next day, it was evident that polls collectively faltered, overall, in providing Americans with clear indications as to how the election would turn out.
And that misstep promises to resonate through the field of survey research, which was battered four years ago when Donald Trump carried states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where polls indicated he had almost no chance of winning. Prominent, poll-based statistical forecasts also went off-target in 2016.
Those failings deepened the embarrassment for a field that has suffered through – but has survived – a variety of lapses and surprises since the mid-1930s. Many of those flubs and failings are described in my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections.”
Criticism was intense in some quarters Wednesday. Politico’s widely followed “Playbook” newsletter was notably scathing. “The polling industry is a wreck,” it declared, “and should be blown up.”
Many surprises
While that assessment seems extreme, especially given polling’s resiliency over the decades, the poll-driven expectation that former Vice President Joe Biden would lead Democrats in a sweeping “blue wave” went unfulfilled. Biden may still win the presidency, but it will not be in a landslide.
Biden’s overall polling lead, as compiled by RealClearPolitics.com, stood at 7.2 percentage points on the morning of Election Day. A little more than 24 hours later, his lead in the national popular vote was almost 3 percentage points.
CNN posted national polls on the presidential race, taken between 10/16/20 and 11/1/20.Screenshot, CNN, CC BY
Pollsters often seek comfort, and protection, from critics in asserting that pre-election surveys are not predictions. But the nearer they are…
In a surprise last minute decision, the flagship stock exchange listing of Ant Group was suspended by regulators in China and Hong Kong. The Chinese tech giant, backed by Alibaba billionaire Jack Ma, was to be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history.
The suspension puts in doubt the future of the US$34.4 billion share sale, part of the US$313 billion dual listing of this giant financial technology (fintech) payments company. The move followed a regulatory interview between the Chinese Financial Stability and Development Committee and Ma, the company’s ultimate controller. The committee’s chair, Vice Premier Liu He, was of the opinion that fintech companies needed to be better regulated amid an ongoing global debate about whether fintechs should be regulated as financial companies or technology companies.
Liu made a valid point, albeit with unfortunate timing. Similar debates are being conducted in the US where fintech companies face multiple regulators with overlapping authorities. The issue goes to the heart of the fintech revolution and the future of banking: what constitutes financial intermediation?
Traditional banking vs fintech
A bank is an intermediary. It has a customer relationship and borrows funds by way of deposits (liabilities). It uses these to lend or invest (assets). In facilitating this mediation banks provide a service by providing a store of money and a mechanism to transmit that money. With improvements in fintech, however, money can be stored electronically, lenders and investors can source funds directly over the internet, and money transfer can be done digitally.
As a result, fintech companies such as Ant Group have the potential to disintermediate banking. To put it in simple terms, financial technology can cut out the middle man and enjoy a regulatory advantage. This increases the reach of financial services, but it raises the question of whether we need to fundamentally change the way we conduct financial transactions. The solution in China is to simply extend the regulatory net.
Presidential candidate Joe Biden has called for Americans to have patience as states continue counting their legitimately filed ballots. Donald Trump, instead, attacked the legitimate counting of these votes in numerous states and declared himself the winner around 2:30 a.m. this morning from the East Room of the White House. Trump said he wanted all vote counting to stop and would be taking his case to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Trump’s fit of pique over the continued counting of mailed-in ballots in Pennsylvania is like the defendant who has killed his parents and is now demanding that the Judge show him mercy because he’s an orphan.
It was the Republican State Legislature in Pennsylvania that earlier this year refused the request by counties to be allowed, because of the pandemic, to begin counting the mailed-in ballots prior to election day. As of this morning, more than 1.4 million, timely received, mailed-in ballots remain to be counted in Pennsylvania.
After the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that mailed-in ballots that are postmarked before or by election day can be received in the mail up to three days later and still be counted, the Republican Party of Pennsylvania sought to overturn that decision at the U.S. Supreme Court. The Supreme Court declined to take up the matter, stating that “there is simply not enough time at this late date to decide the question before the election.”
The delay in receiving mailed-in ballots in Pennsylvania and other states may have been intentionally engineered by Trump’s Postmaster General, Louis DeJoy, who is being sued in D.C. Federal Court by the NAACP. Members of the U.S. Senate, including Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, have filed an Amicus brief in that matter, telling the court the following:
“Amici therefore have a substantial interest in ensuring that this Court recognizes that when the Postal Service and Postmaster General failed to follow the procedures set forth in 39 U.S.C. § 3661—which requires that the Postal Regulatory Commission and members of the public have the opportunity to weigh in before the Postal Service implements certain changes—they not only violated the plain text of § 3661 but also acted counter to Congress’s plan in enacting that legislation…
Telling kids on Christmas Eve that they have to be patient to find out what gifts they might receive doesn’t make them happy. The same idea hasn’t made many adults happy on election night 2020, either. For 100 years, media of many kinds tried to be the first with the most results.
That changed in 2020. A raging pandemic, a polarized country, a close race, past polling failures, presidential claims of voter fraud and more made everyone anxious. Media figures who knew they’d have to call the election felt more anxious than most. So they used metaphor to shape public expectations about their election night reporting.
A metaphor is a linguistic device that sees something in terms of something else, usually to highlight an important idea. If we see a football team as the Bears or Lions, we know they’re not literally animals but they are ferocious. As a scholar of presidential rhetoric and political campaign speeches, I’m used to metaphors, as are most people. We often don’t even see them.
For instance, I’ve been using the same metaphor here as the media used in the days before the election: sight. People often equate seeing with knowing. We know a metaphor asks us to “see” this in terms of that, like a villain with a midnight-black soul. Metaphors work to shape our perceptions of the events, ideas or people they describe.
On election night, much of the nation’s media leadership worried that Americans would not see clear results. They used two sight metaphors to describe the problem and its solution.
Election workers in Pennsylvania, like the one seen here, couldn’t begin verifying mail-in ballots until Election Day, meaning there may be significant delays before full results are available.AP Photo/Laurence Kesterson
Neither disinformation nor voter intimidation is anything new. But tools developed by leading tech companies including Twitter, Facebook and Google now allow these tactics to scale up dramatically.
Earlier this fall, Twitter announced new measures to tackle disinformation, including false claims about the risks of voting by mail. Facebook has likewise vowed to crack down on disinformation and voter intimidation on its platform, including by removing posts that encourage people to monitor polling places.
Google has dropped the Proud Boys domain that Iran allegedly used to send messages to some 25,000 registered Democrats that threatened them if they did not change parties and vote for Trump.
But such self-regulation, while helpful, can go only so far. The time has come for the U.S. to learn from the experiences of other nations and hold tech firms accountable for ensuring that their platforms are not misused to undermine the country’s democratic foundations.
Voter intimidation
On Oct. 20, registered Democrats in Florida, a crucial swing state, and Alaska began receiving emails purportedly from the far-right group Proud Boys. The messages were filled with threats up to and including violent reprisals if the receiver did not vote for President Trump and change their party affiliation to Republican.
Less than 24 hours later, on Oct. 21, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Christopher Wray gave a briefing in which they publicly attributed this attempt at voter intimidation to Iran. This verdict was later corroborated by Google, which has also claimed that more than 90% of these messages were blocked by spam filters.
The eagerly anticipated and yet also dreaded day has finally arrived. In the interest of preserving this day lest post-traumatic-stress-disorder kicks in and eviscerates the nightmares of the last four years from our memory banks, we thought we would capture in photos the vibes of what the American presidential election has come to.
The front cover of the New York Daily News, in the photo above, perfectly captures the queasy stomachs that the majority of Americans are experiencing today. But in an utterly bizarre action, at 6:50 a.m. this morning, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were suggesting that the stock market would open up more than 400 points. There is definitely some invisible hand buying up futures on maximum leverage to move the market higher this morning.
If you need further evidence of fake market optimism for corporate stocks this morning, consider what national retailers that cater to the one percent think about what might happen today. Stores in Soho and on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan have boarded up their display windows with vast swaths of ugly brown plywood. Retailers taking cover include Tiffany & Co., Dior, Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Bloomingdale’s and Macy’s flagship store. Likewise, Washington, D.C. is preparing for flying projectiles with hotels, shops and restaurants decked out in plywood.
Polls point to a decisive defeat for Donald Trump. But his unexpected win in 2016 still has opponents rattled, fearing the same divisive rhetoric that characterised his 2016 campaign could help him scrape home.
The US has not been so divided by politics, religion and identity in decades. Particularly troubling are the nation’s inflamed ethnic divisions.
Overall, polls show a majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of “race relations”.
But now, as in 2016, what matters is the view of voters in the “rust-belt” states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvannia, which all swung to Trump in 2016 on the back of strong support from white working-class voters.
By racialised economics they mean the important sentiment underlying Trump’s support was not “I might lose my job” but “people in my group are losing jobs to that other group”. Individualised economic anxiety was replaced by group fears and perceived grievances.
Our more recent research, using a nationally representative sample of nearly 500,000 Americans, largely supports this contention. It also suggests that behind the appeal of this ethnic identity politics hide deeper issues of social disconnectedness.
Biden and Trump supporters clash prior to the vice-presidential debate in Salt Lake City on October 7 2020.Jeff Swinger/AP
With Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic dominating 2020, and an opponent who isn’t Hillary Clinton, the dog whistling to white voters looks unlikely to work as it did four years ago.
But the problems Trump has weaponised won’t be defused merely by his defeat.
Remember when Trump said that if we “get rid of ballots” there won’t be a transition of power? Looks like a few Republicans took that to heart. They’re not stopping with absentee ballots. They’re going after any ballots in Democratic-leaning areas.
A group of Republicans filed a petition earlier this week to halt “drive-through” voting in Harris County. The Texas Supreme Court has already held that drive-through voting is legal under Texas law. Moreover, county officials have invited voters to vote using this method. Tossing out those ballots the day before the election would create chaos: 120,000+ voters would have to return on Tuesday to recast their ballots.
For a deep dive into how bogus this lawsuit is, see this thread:
The petitioners are not the GOP party or any organized group. They are a few voters and people running for local office. The remedy they seek is
After tumbling on Wednesday, amid hopes for a Trump victory in the election and the return of 'law and order', US gunmaker stocks are soaring the last two days as the odds of a Biden victory continue to rise...
Source: Bloomberg
This should not be a total surprise since we have ...
By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Lester Knispel bought the $1.5 million white-columned house on the second fairway. His Porsche is now parked in the garage. And family pictures hang in the living room.
But Lester and his wife have never set foot inside their new country club home! They live in California, and didn’t want to visit Florida during the lockdowns.
So instead they toured the five-bedroom mansion virtually, bought it, and then shipped the car and furniture soon after. “I never thought I’d buy something like this, sight unseen” Knis...
Many of our cycle methods suggest 2021 will see another major top in stocks. But how far down? Forecasting how large the correction may be is any ones guess, any thing from 10% to 66% is on the table.
Assuming the US elections do not shock, the built up energy (CAUSE) will release higher asset prices (EFFECT) for 4 to 8 months. The massive generation of COVID US M2 money supply is sitting in bank accounts ready to be leveraged (buy buy buy) by the major Wall Street banks. Yes you can confirm that the global liquidity is high and ready to hunt for a home.
Chart 1: The Kitchin cycle continues to work (notice the margin of error band).
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not sh...
The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.
The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...
The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign.
Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.