Phil's Newsletter

Wednesday Wind Down for 2017

Not much is happening.

That doesn't stop us from making money in the markets, of course, but we have to be a bit selective in picking and choosing our spots.  Yesterday morning, for example, a pipeline explosion in Libya sent oil rocketing up to test $60 and, as it was climbing, I put out the following note to our Members at 11:09 am:

Oil exploding higher, $59.55 and /RB $1.796 - even though there's no logic to that following oil higher because a pipeline explode in Libya so I like /RB short under the $1.80 line with tight stops above.

That's all good Fundamental Trading is:  Read the news, think about what it means and play for or against the market reaction.  In this case, it was an over-reaction so we went against the market.  When oil hit $60 (/CL) we shorted that too as $60 is a tough line to cross and we expected at least some rejection there and, this morning, we just cashed in at $59.50 for a $500 per contract gainj already.

As to Gasoline (/RB), that was good for a quick $1,411.20 on two contracts into the close – not bad for a day trade, right?  Even if you have a $500,000 portfolio that you parked in CASH!!! and it's sitting on the sidelines, making $1,000 per trading day is $200,000 a year – that's a 40% annual return with some simple Futures trades while you wait for some good opportunities to re-deploy your cash!

Futures trading is a very valuable tool to have in your trading toolbox but, like anything worthwhile, it takes a lot of practice and that's why we do a lot of Futures work in our weekly webinars.  There will not be a Live Trading Webinar this week, however, as I'm on semi-vacation in Las Vegas, where I'm applying our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" method to the poker tables.

Image result for winning pokerAside from the bluffing and luck aspects of the game, winning consistently at poker is just like good portfolio-building, we try to take a consistent series of positive risk/reward positions and manage…
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Tinsel Tuesday – Market Decorations Expected to Last Out the Week

Image result for santa on vacationWhy are you here?

I'm not here, I'm in Las Vegas!  It's 4am here – I have nothing else to do and the markets close at 1pm (PST) and I'll have a full day of fun in the sun after that – what's your excuse?  The US markets are open but not Europe, because they are not idiots – so expect very low volumes and take nothing seriously this week.

Nothing serious seems to have happened in the morning other than Apple (AAPL) getting some negative notes on IPhone X demand that's sending that stock and their suppliers about 2.5% lower in pre-market, which should put a drag on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and the Dow and S&P – all of which have AAPL as their largest component.  This could all be BS, where unscrupulous fund managers are taking advantage of the holiday – as well as Apple's refustal to comment on rumors – to knock the stock down.  

We can play along by shorting the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) but they are already falling but the Russell (/TF) is lagging at 1,545 so I'd short them for a cross below, with tight stops above.  Speaking of Futures, congrats to those who played along with our long play on Natural Gas (/NGV8) from last Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar as we got a great pop this morning and an even nicer $1,200 gain – Merry Christmas to all of our Members!  

Now Coffee (/KC) has dipped back to $120, which is where we like to play them long with tight stops below that line.  We already put that note out to our Members earlier this morning, in our Live Chat Room.  The Nasdaq already hit our $1,000 per contract goal for gains from last week's short, where I said to our Members on Thursday morning:

Dow looks intent on giving us another chance to short at 24,850 (/YM) and that should be 2,690 (/ES), 6,500 (/NQ) and 1,550 (/TF) so all good shorting spots to watch (with tight


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Friday Market Follies – BitCoin Drops 30% from the Highs, What Bubble?

Bubble, what bubble?

We're not saying BitCoin (GBTC) is dead, just because it fell 30% this week.  That seems to happen to it every few months and it hasn't happend since September, so it was overdue for a correction.  We sold our BitCoins and BitCoinCashes(?) as $18,500 and $3,500 seemed kind of silly to me but we're still accepting GreenCoin until the end of the month as payment for our 2018 Annual Memberships and they are cheap today at 0.000285 while we're converting at 0.00044 so close to a 50% discount on the exchange!  

We bought our 4 BitCoins 2 years ago for $600 each and we traded two for 150M GreenCoins (GRE) and let the other two ride.  Last week, as BitCoin raced up towards $20,000, we managed to get out at $18,500 so a nice 2,983% return on our investment but, even at just 0.000285, our 150M GreenCoins are now $42,750 – so doing better than BitCoins for now!  There are lots of small, alt currencies out there – GreenCoin is simply the one we decided to play with but, keep in mind, we're in them for $1,200 (not even counting the BitCoin profits) – not really a make or break trade!  

The fact that we're trying to get more of them is a sign that we don't think crypto is going away but that doesn't mean we want to buy a BitCoin for $13,000 or $10,000 or $5,000 or $3,000.  Now $1,000 I'll buy 10 or 20 (still with the profits from our first 4) but what makes a BitCoin worth more than a GreenCoin other than BitCoin is more popular at the moment?  Well, I don't think BitCoin is likely to get more popular but the sky is the limit with GreenCoin and, even at a penny, we'll be Millionaires – so it's a much more fun gamble, isn't it?  

Yesterday, the Long Island Iced Tea Corp (LTEA) said they were changing their name to the Long Blockchain Corp or some such nonsense and the stock jumped 346%.  For those of you who remember the pet food seller, Pets.com, this is the kind of nonsense you see at the height of a speculative bubble – people just trying to associate themselves with the…
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GDPhursday – No Way We Make 3% This Year

The final Q3 GDP Report is out this morning.

While the quarterly figure is supposed to come in at 3.3%, the first Q was only 1.2% and Q2 was 3.1% and that averages 2.53%, far, far below Trump's claim of 3% and, in order to hit 3% for the year, Q4 would have to jump to 4.5% – and that's not very likely at all.  2.5% GDP growth is better than last year's 1.5% average growth rate but far, far shy of 2015's 2.92% because, in reality, it's hard to grow an $18,570,000,000,000 economy 3%, which would be adding $557Bn.  

$557Bn is the entire GDP of Argentina, the 21st ranked country by GDP.  Saudi Arabia is 20th at $646Bn, which is 3.4% of our economy.  Isreal's GDP is $318Bn, just 1.7% of our own so, essentially, the US builds an entire Israel and absorbs it into our economy every 6 months.  Singapore is $296Bn, Ireland is $293Bn,  Portugal $204Bn… you get the idea – $557Bn is a lot of money – and that's why people who tell you we're going to punch up to that level and beyond are full of crap and assume you have no idea how to do the math, so you'll swallow their crap and repeat it to other people as if it's a fact.  

According to the Tax Policy Center's report on the Trump Tax Plan that just passed the House and Senate, we are growing something by 5% of our GDP but, unfortunately, it's the level of Debt to our GDP, which already stands at 108% with just over $20Tn in debt.  Even at just 1.5%, our Government is spending $300Bn a year in interest on that debt but the Fed is raising rates at least 1% next year so that will add another $200Bn in interest payments, taking up 40% of our anticipated GDP growth. 

That can quickly get much, MUCH worse if inflation kicks up and people demand more for bonds to keep up or if the Dollar devalues if, for example, someone were to pass irresponsible tax legislation that gave huge tax breaks to the rich while doing nothing to improve the lives of 90% of the people who live in the country, which would leave little possibility for GDP growth unless,…
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Which Way Wednesday? S&P 3,000 in 2018?

1,500.

That's where the S&P 500 topped out in both 1999 and in 2007 – in both cases right before crashing and giving up 50% of that level.  That didn't stop analysts from calling for higher highs or assuring us that the markets were still a buy – even as they were collapsing.  That's because the analysts and the TV stations don't work for you – they work for their sponsors and their sponsors are the investment banks and brokers that make their money off your transactions – they will never tell you to go to CASH!!! – they want you to BUYBUYBUY all the time.

Only one of 12 "equity strategists" polled by Marketwatch can imagine the market goes lower in 2018 and, frankly, I'm not one of them either as I think we do end up around 3,000 by the end of the year.  I'm simply expecting a correction first.  IF the market keeps going into August, it will become the longest bull rally in history at 9 years – 8 of them under Obama and 1 of them under the guy who claims all the credit for it.  Bush Jr took credit for the Clinton rally too – that didn't turn out well for him or America.

We went to CASH!!! two weeks ago because we think the market is currently being held up simply because no one wants to sell and take a profit in 2017, when the taxes paid on those gains will be substantially higher than they will be next year.  In fact, you can see from Morgan Stanley's chart that tracks Intra-Year Declines in the market, that this year has been a real outlier and there may be a lot of pent-up demand for selling that will be unleashed in 2018.

Or maybe not.  That's why we're in CASH!!! – the market is too scary to stay in but also way too scary to bet against – so we're sitting it out and waiting for the dust to settle.  There are still plenty of things to buy.  We reviewed our Top Trades yesterday and found several stocks we'd love to add to our new portfolios in 2018 already.  Still, it's slim
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Top Trades Tuesday – Reviewing our 1st Half Trades of 2017

Image result for top trade ideas

We're currently on a trading break.

We went to CASH!!! two weeks ago (12/5) and we're going to start January 2nd with 4 brand new Member Portfolios and sure, we've been finding a few new trade ideas over the past couple of weeks – just not for our official portfolios.   It will be nice to have a clean start in 2018, 3 portfolios using 3 trading styles with $100,000 (Short-Term, Butterfly and Option Opportunity) and the $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio, which we cashed in at just under $2M after 4 years of trading (Nov, 2013). 

We also have Top Trade Alerts at PSW – those are our favorite trade ideas from our Live Member Chat Room each week and they are sent out by Email and Text Alert to our Members as well.  Our last Review, published at the end of September, covered the first half of the year and, through May 31st, we had put out 27 Top Trade Alerts (about one a week) and 21 (77%) had already been winners vs 6 losers for a $43,850 profit.  That, of course, includes hedges, which are not supposed to win – so a pretty good collection of trade ideas!  

In fact, the losers are the main reason our Members love the Top Trade reviews as we get a second chance to look at companies which we considered a good value, that got even cheaper a few months later.  In the September Review, we had 3 losing trade ideas in March, April and May so, before we get into the June trades, let's look at what we did with those losers.  

Our Monday, March 20th short on Tesla (TLSA) failed us but we rolled it into another short and got our win in May, so not really a loser but the original trade was.  More valuable though, was our discussion of how to play and we'll look at those two new ideas from the September 30th Review:

When a trade like that moves against you, you can roll the short calls.  For instance, TSLA is now $340 and the Oct $300 calls are $43.50 and the Jan $340 calls are $31.20 so we could


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Monday Market Madness – Tax Loopholes and Wage Slavery go Hand in Hand

It hasn't even been signed yet.

That hasn't stopped the S&P futures from testing 2,700 (/ES) and Dow (/YM) from testing 2,4850 this morning as the new GOP tax bill seems to be "in the bag" and the House Speaker, Paul Ryan, is now promising us an "average" $2,059 tax break for a "typical" family of four making $73,000/year.  If you take them at their word (and when has Congress ever lied to you?), then 100M housholds will save $200Bn a year yet, somehow, Corporations save another $200Bn AND the new tax cuts BOOST Federal Revenues because those companies will turn right around and put that money into building new factories and hiring millions of workers, which will boost total reciepts.  What can possibly go wrong?

Nothing, according to the Index Futures, which are blasting higher about 0.5% this morning and that's lagging Europe, which is up over 1% – which seems kind of odd as the whole purpose of these tax cuts is supposedly to make us more competitive with Europs so wouldn't our gain be a detriment to them?  Well, best not to think about logical things like that when we're trying to enjoy the rally, right?  

Image result for gop tax loopholesCertainly, we don't want to read the actual bill, because it is one scary document!  "The more you read, the more you go, 'Holy crap, what’s this?’” Greg Jenner, a former top tax official in George W. Bush’s Treasury Department, told Politico last week. “We will be dealing with unintended consequences for months to come because the bill is moving too fast.”  

On Friday,  a group of 13 tax law professors and lawyers, many of whom have been vocal opponents of the Republican plan, published a 34-page paper offering a taste of what those unintended consequences might be. You know how people have been joking about incorporating themselves ever since these tax bills started kicking around? That’s almost certainly going to be a thing. Investors may be able to shelter their investment profits by stuffing them into C-Corporations, which are in line for a low, 20 percent tax rate. 

Many individuals could save on their income taxes by gaming proposed tax breaks for passthrough businesses—firms like
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Quad Witching Friday – Big Futures Gains Likely to Evaporate

The Futures are up again.  

It's very exciting, especially if you took our trade ideas from yesterday's morning Report, which were:

  • Dollar (/DX) long at 93 – out at 93.50 for $500 per contract gains (playable again this morning)
  • Oil (/CL) long at $56.50 – out at $57.50 for $1,000 per contract gains
  • Gasoline (/RB) long at $1.65 – out at $1.675 for $1,000 per contract gains.  
  • Natural Gas (/NG) long at $2.66 – out at $2.71 for $500 per contract gains.  

So Merry Christmas and Happy Hunukkah to you all – now we can go shopping!  I told you it was fun to play the Futures and that's why we don't mind cashing out during uncertain times – it certainly doesn't prevent us from making money.  Even if we drop $1M to the sidelines, making $3,000 a day while we wait for the markets to cool off isn't a bad way to pass the time.  

Today we'll be looking for another chance to short the indexes, if they get back to yesterday's highs but, so far, no takers.  Dow is closest (/YM) but only 24,635, very shy of 24,700 so our only active play at the moment is the Dollar (/DX) long at 93 again though we do still have active long trades on /NGV8 (October Nat Gas contracts) now $2.74 and /KCH8 (March Coffee) now $120.50 – but those aren't day trades.  

One commodity not doing well this winter is chicken wings, with prices down 30% since Football season started and Conservative commenters are blaming NFL protests for spoiling people's appetites but I'd say Republican policies which are destroying the buying power of the Middle Class are having a negative effect on $1/each wings.  The same goes for Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), who blamed players taking a knee for hurting their business – where 9 wings are $13.49 and celery is EXTRA.  

I'd short BWLD but Arby's just bought them and we can't short Arby's because they are private.  That's another reason we went to CASH!!! in our portfolios, we're going to have to think carefully about…
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$10,000 Thursday – Last Week’s Silver Play Beats BitCoin

Who says you can't make money in this market?

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar we closed out the long Silver (/SI) trade we discussed in last week's Webinar, as well as last Thursday's PSW Report, where I said:

We actually picked up some Silver Futures (/SI) as they fell back to $15.85 and that's down $2.15 (12%) since September and our 5% Rule™ says that's a 10% drop with a 20% overshoot and, while that's no guarantee of a bottom (real support comes at $15.50) – it's worth a poke down here as we don't expect the Dollar to pop 94 very easily and Gold (/YG) is testing $1,250, which is good support on the yellow side.  

Yesterday's Fed Statement sent both gold and silver flying higher (and BitCoin lower) and we took the money and ran live, during the Webinar with a $10,000 overall gain on 8 contracts that gained 0.25 each at $50 per penny, per contract (the day's gain is coming of a dip).  It's not that we don't still like gold and silver – it's just that making $10,000 in a week is good money – so why risk a reversal?  If they don't pull back to give us another entry, then we'll find something else to trade (and we identified several in yesterday's Webinar).  

The reason we're cautious today is the Dollar (/DX) is down at 93 and that's too low, especially with our Fed in a tighening cycle and already the BOE failed to match the raise and, if the ECB holds off on raising rates too, the Dollar will pop so, this morning, in our Live Member Chat Room, I said to our Members:

If ECB stays easy then Dollar likely to pop so I do like /DX long over 93 with tight stops below.

I think /CL can be played long over $56.50 with tight stops below and /RB over $1.65 with tight stops below now.  


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Why Worry Wednesday – The Fed Will Save Us Every Time

Bubbles, bubbles, everywhere.  

BitCoin has passed tulips in 1637 as the biggest bubble that ever existed.  The S&P bubble (see yesterday's post) is only up 300% in 8 years – hardly a blip on a chart where BitCoins (/XBT) is now up 6,500% in 3 years.  Amazingly, it was only two weeks ago when I said "We Will All Be Billionaires" if the markets keep growing at this pace yet the pace most certainly has continued, with our Money Talk portfolio (see yesterday) hitting +80% in yesterday's trading.  

There were no changes and no adjustments – just the same 4 positions going from +70% to +80% in two weeks while BitCoin went from $11,200 to $18,000 (+69%) and our GreenCoins went from 0.000220 to 0.000812 (+269%) before crashing back down to 0.000305 as we reminded people not to be greedy and take profits in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room.  Of course the whole thing is ridiculous, but it's a ridiculous thing we can play with – so why not?

We're still accepting GreenCoins (GRE) as payment for 2018 Annual Memberships during the month of December at 0.00044 so, if you can buy them for 0.000300, you're getting a 25% discount at the moment but I'd offer 0.000200 – as those lows are still filling if you are patient.  That gives you a 50% discount on Annual Memberships so, assuming you wanted an Annual Membership anyway, it's a free way to go through the process of playing the cryto market and, if you get lucky, GRE pops again and you can sell them for 4x, which pays for the Membership (2x) and leaves you 2x in your pocket as well!

Image result for bitcoin milestonesSee how easy it is to make money in America – we just make everyone rich on a weekly basis – what could possibly go wrong?  Two weeks ago, if you bought a BitCoin for $11,200 to exchange for GreenCoins (that's how small cryptos work, they trade in BitCoins) and you waited until they were back at 0.00022 on the 8th, your BitCoin was at $20,000 and you only needed 22.7M GreenCoins for a Premium…
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Phil's Favorites

Why Big Tech is Plotting an Invasion of the Healthcare Market

 

Why Big Tech is Plotting an Invasion of the Healthcare Market

Courtesy of Visual Capitalist

The idea of using modern tech to transform the multi-trillion dollar healthcare industry has been around for a long time.

In 1996, legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneur Jim Clark launched his third startup, Healtheon, which was focused on what he called the “Magic Diamond”. The diamond represented the $1.5 healthcare market in the U.S. and its shape came from the doctors, providers, payers, and consumers slotted into the four outer points.

In the middle of the diamond, Clark had placed his new company Healtheon, which...



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Zero Hedge

Amazon Begins Delivering Packages To The Trunk Of Your Car

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Announcements and leaks about new Amazon products and programs have been dropping almost daily as CEO Jeff Bezos is presumably pulling out all the stops to ensure that he remains the world's richest man.

Yesterday, it was a report about Amazon's "top secret" project to build its next blockbuster consumer product: A robotic home assistant that...



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Insider Scoop

Kerrisdale Short Report Says St. Joe's Real Estate Plan 'Pure Fantasy'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related JOE 28 Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market Session 8 Stocks Moving In Monday's After-Hours Session ...

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Chart School

Semiconductors Approach 200-day MA; S&P Sleeper Play

Courtesy of Declan.

There were modest losses today with most indices holding the status quo from Friday. The one exception was the Semiconductor Index as it lost over 1% in a confirmed break of support. However, it does have the 200-day MA for a likely test tomorrow. All technicals are negative and relative performance took another step lower but no change there.


The Nasdaq broke bearish wedge support but is resting on a minor support level.  Today saw a new On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger but the 6,800/7,500 trading ra...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tops $9,000 As NY Fed Says "Doesn't Pass Test Of What Currency Should Be"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up almost 40% from its lows right before Tax-Day, breaking back above $9,000 for the first time in over a month.

But while Bitcoin is rebounding, the rest of the cryto-space is soaring...with Ripple up 85% and Ethereum up lamost 65% in the last two weeks...

As it seems 'risk-on' is back in the cryptocurrency markets after a month or two of tax turmoil...

Additionally, Bloomberg ...



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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>