Author Archive for Zero Hedge

‘Good News Is Bad News’? – Tech, Bonds, & Bullion Are All Getting Whacked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Small Caps are soaring… short-squeezed ever higher but the big tech Nasdaq is down hard today…

Bonds are being sold

And gold (and silver) are being dumped…

Is "good" jobs news, "bad" money-printing/stimulus news? And therefore "sell it all"?





US Oil Rig Count Hits 15-Year-Low, Shale Remains In ‘Survival’ Mode

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 4 in the past week to 176, according to oil-field services company Baker Hughes. That represented a decline of 588 from the year-ago period, when there were 764 oil rigs drilling in the US and is the lowest since 2004…

The U.S. oil-rig count is often seen as a proxy for activity in the sector, but for now production has held up…

But, as OilPrice.com's Irina Slav notes, after slashing capex plans for 2020 and idling rigs by the dozen, U.S. shale drillers are still not ready to return to their default state of perpetual growth. Oil is simply too cheap for that, so they are staying in survival mode, maintaining production with no plans to start boosting it anytime soon. Shale producers are caving in to low oil prices and worried investors, pledging to stick to production maintenance for the time being, Bloomberg reported this week, citing updates by several of the larger shale drillers in the United States. Modest growth in production is the most that any of these producers can offer their shareholders, with some cutting their earlier production guidance for this year and declining to provide any update on 2021.

According to some, U.S. onshore oil production shed as much as 2 million bpd when the double blow of the Saudi-Russian price war and the coronavirus pandemic struck. It will be a while before it recovers, and analysts see this “while” as at least a couple of years. Some even doubt that the industry will recover to its pre-crisis state at all.

Prices are at the heart of the problem, of course. This week benchmarks have been trending higher, but the rally has been limited: after both the API and the EIA reported substantial inventory declines that pushed West Texas Intermediate higher, today the U.S. benchmark was down at the time of writing, albeit modestly. Oil prices will likely continue to move extra-dynamically in the coming months as the spread of Covid-19 continues to cast a thick shadow over the future of the energy industry.

Karr Ingham,


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Inequality Has Never Been Bigger: Financial Assets Hit A Record 620% Of GDP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It was about a year ago when we showed a snapshot of the outrages wealth imbalance in the US with the help of just one metric: as of Aug 2019, Wall Street (US private sector financial assets) was 5.5x the size of Main Street (US GDP), and as BofA's Michael Hartnett pointed out, between 1950 & 2000 the norm was 2.5-3.5x. His conclusion, as recent events have sadly confirmed "Wall Street is now "too big to fail"."

Well fast forward one global pandemic and one unprecedented bailout later, which none other than Hartnett himself framed in the best possible way as follows…

"The monetary and the fiscal stimulus in terms of the announcements thus far, it comes to $20 trillion, $8 trillion of monetary stimulus and $12 trillion of fiscal stimulus. And that number is – it's a little over 20% of global GDP. So it's just astonishing and breathtaking and you have to sort of pinch yourself sometimes to sort of realize that it's actually happening."

… when in his latest Flows and Liquidity report, the BofA Chief Investment Officer provided an update on this most critical metric and it's a doozy.

Dubbing it the "Nihilistic Bull", Hartnett describes the current market as the consequence of a decade-long backdrop of Maximum Liquidity & Minimal Growth still Maximum Bullish, and more importantly, it has led to the value of US financial assets (Wall Street) now hitting an all time high 6.2X size of GDP (Main Street). In other words, not only is Wall Street now "even bigger to fail", but in its attempt to "fix" inequality, the Fed has made it greater than ever, and the now daily violence on America's streets is the most immediate consequence… if only those people protesting knew that they should target their anger not at the Capitol but the Marriner Eccles building.

Going back to the chart above, and the market that spawned it, Hartnett writes that "nothing matters but liquidity…GDP loss of $10tn & US claims 53mn numbed by $21tn policy stimulus, $2bn per hour central bank asset purchases." Furthermore, according to the BofA credit strategist, "the structural view on low yields now shared by


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Wirecard Fraudsters Looted $1 Billion From The Company Just Before ‘The Hammer Came Down’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Yesterday, we reported that a former Wirecard business partner named Christopher Bauer who likely played a key role in the $2 billion accounting fraud that was exposed in June, precipitating the company's slide into bankruptcy, had apparently turned up dead in Manila. Or that's at least what Bauer wanted the world to think.

As the FT's digging into Wirecard's sprawling fraud takes its reporters across Southeast Asia, the paper's intrepid reporters have apparently found a series of suspicious loans to Bauer's third-party company, an couple other Wirecard 'payment partners' that look more like the company was being looted by executives and probable participants in the fraud right before the hammer came down.

That hammer came in the form of KPMG's independent report, which was, ironically, commissioned by the company under pressure from the media and investors. These loans were made to partner companies in the Dubai, Singapore and Philippines, further complicating, and potentially obscuring, the fraud. Bauer's former company, PayEasy, and a handful of others named below.

Here's more from the FT:

Money flowing out of the company accelerated in the months before the collapse. About €155m appears to have been paid out over the first three months of 2020. The bulk of the new loans extended in early 2020 went to Ocap — a Singapore-based company run by a former Wirecard executive whose wife at the time still worked in a senior position at the company. In the first quarter, Ocap received almost €100m, giving it a total debt to Wirecard of €230m, according to a document seen by the FT and two people familiar with the matter. Ruprecht Services, another Singapore-based payments company, received a loan of €40m in the first quarter, lifting its total outstanding debt to Wirecard to €53m, according to a person familiar with the details. It suspended operations this week. The additional lending to the two Singapore-based entities pushed Wirecard’s total loans to business partners in Asia to €870m ($1bn) by March 2020, according to a document seen by the Financial Times. The additional lending came even as KPMG was conducting a special audit at Wirecard in an effort to confirm or refute allegations published in the FT about accounting fraud at


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Schiff: People Don’t Understand The Significance Of $2,000 Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold reached a new milestone Tuesday, breaking above $2,000 for the first time ever. The yellow metal closed just above $2,017 an ounce. Peter talked about gold’s new record high and what it’s telling us in his latest podcast. He says most people still don’t really understand the significance of $2,000 gold.

Peter noted that when gold first peaked its head above $2,000, it immediately sold off. He said that kind of nervousness is exactly what he wants to see in a gold bull market.

Instead of wanting to buy the breakout, they want to sell the high print. And that’s exactly what they did. And of course, once gold pulled back, all the buying that drove it up to $2,000 in the first place was still there. The problem for the sellers, or the shorts, is once it got back above 2,000 again, all the people who wanted to sell 2,000 gold had already sold and the smart money had bought it from them.”

Peter said gold could be building support above $2,000, although it’s too early to tell.

I’ve been saying that the support has been inching higher and higher and higher as more and more buyers enter the market and the supply of sellers is diminished.”

Peter said more evidence of the wall of worry is that we haven’t seen a big rush into gold stocks yet. They are doing well, but they are nowhere near their 2011 highs even though the price of gold is higher than it was at that peak.

I don’t think we’re going to see a meaningful correction in this market until we see that rush, until we see some money actually coming off the sideline, until we see some mainstream investors coming into gold.”

Peter said he was listening to CNBC and one analyst was explaining why gold’s move above $2,000 wasn’t a big deal and predicting the yellow metal will sell off as soon as real interest rates go positive.


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“Tsunami Of Rage”: Lebanon Braces For Mass Protests Over Blast, Economy In Free Fall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Lebanon is bracing itself for a return to the massive demonstrations and riots which gripped the streets for much of last year, leading to closures of highways, banks, and public buildings. Like the years-long banking crisis, the government is seen as directly responsible for this week's epic tragedy.

Already Thursday night small, sporadic angry protests popped up downtown areas of Beirut. It's expected that following ongoing searches of rubble, as well as funerals for the over 135 killed, and initial clean-up efforts of a capital city covered in glass, mass demonstrations are expected to explode

It was already a country on the brink, but the Tuesday blast centered on the port which had such force as to be compared to a mini-nuke has reportedly displaced 300,000 people – many of which saw entire walls of their homes ripped out – already in a dire situation of huge unemployment especially among young people, skyrocketing inflation, and a banking system teetering on collapse, which already saw closures for weeks at a time over the past year.

There's also of course the COVID-19 crisis which has not abated yet. But even before pandemic shutdowns in Lebanon the World Bank projected a whopping 45% of the population would be below the poverty line by the end of 2020.

Thus anger at widespread government corruption and ineptitude was already swelling before it was revealed that the government allowed 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate to be left in unsafe conditions right on the doorstep of populous residential areas.


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US Consumer Credit Rises For The First TIme Since The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After three months of record declines, total US consumer credit posted its first increase in the month of June since the covid crisis, rising by a modest $8.9 billion, below the $10 billion expected, but the positive print since February nonetheless.

In total, June consumer credit rose 2.6% at an annual rate to $4.125 trillion up from $4.116 trillion in May, according to the latest G.19 statement.

Broken up into its components, revolving credit actually posted another modest drop, but nothing compared to the record credit card repayment seen in April when credit card balances shrank by nearly $60 billion.

Meanwhile, the trend higher in auto and student loans, i.e., non-revolving credit, continued apace rising by $11.3BN in June after a $10.3bn increase in May and a rare contraction in April.

Finally, when looking at the biggest component of US household debt after mortgages, namely auto loans and student loans, it's as if nothing every happened, with both series hitting new all time highs.

With total credit now once again positive, and revolving credit likely having gone green in July, it appears that life in America – where virtually everyone spends well beyond their means – is back to normal. At least until the next forced state shutdowns a few weeks from now to ensure that the economy is in complete shambles by the time Nov 3 rolls by.





Illinois Reports More Than 2,000 New COVID-19 Cases For First Time Since May: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Miami-Dade hospitalizations lowest since 7/10
  • Illinois reports 2k+ new cases for first time since May 24
  • Gov Cuomo says NY schools can reopen next month
  • Arizona cases decline, deaths tick higher
  • Florida sees continued decline in new cases
  • Global total tops 19 million
  • Newsom says Cali struggling to fix under-counting bug
  • Philippines, Indonesia add new cases
  • Hong Kong launches free testing scheme for all 7.5 million residents
  • India passes 2 million cases, joining US and Brazil
  • U of Washington scientists project 300k US deaths by December

* * *

Update (1325ET): Illinois just reported its biggest daily spike in new cases since May for the second day in a row on Friday as cases in the Midwestern state start to make a comeback. For first time in more than 2 months, the state reported 2,000 new COVID-19 cases (2,084 to be exact), while Gov. Pritzker announced new emergency rules for mask requirements.

The state also reported another 21 deaths. The state last passed 2,000 new cases on May 24, with 2,508 new cases reported during a 24-hour period. That brought the state's total to 190,508, and total deaths to 7,613.

Meanwhile, Miami-Dade hospitalizations have declined to their lowest level in nearly a month…

  • MIAMI-DADE COVID-19 HOSPITAL PATIENTS 1,785, FEWEST SINCE 7/10

* * *

Update (1145ET): NY Gov Cuomo announced Friday that schools can reopen across New York state next month.

He also released the latest COVID-19 numbers.

Today's update on the numbers:

Of the 70,170 tests reported yesterday, 714 were positive (1.0% of total).

Total hospitalizations are at 579.

Sadly, there were 5 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/cdZ56yDq6r

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) August 7, 2020

* * *

Update (1125ET): Arizona reported a slight decline in new COVID cases day-over-day, with 1,406 mew cases, compared with 1444 yesterday. However, deaths ticked higher to 79 from 74. The total climbed to 4,081. Hospitalizations fell by


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California Becomes 3rd State To Report More Than 10,000 COVID-19 Deaths: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • California becomes 3rd state to top 10k deaths
  • Miami-Dade hospitalizations lowest since 7/10
  • Illinois reports 2k+ new cases for first time since May 24
  • Gov Cuomo says NY schools can reopen next month
  • Arizona cases decline, deaths tick higher
  • Florida sees continued decline in new cases
  • Global total tops 19 million
  • Newsom says Cali struggling to fix under-counting bug
  • Philippines, Indonesia add new cases
  • Hong Kong launches free testing scheme for all 7.5 million residents
  • India passes 2 million cases, joining US and Brazil
  • U of Washington scientists project 300k US deaths by December

* * *

Update (1410ET): California on Friday became the third US state to top 10,000 deaths – the exact death toll is 10,011 – after reporting 142 new deaths on Friday. It’s the first time a state has seen deaths eclipse 10k since the US’s ‘second wave’ started in June.

Still, it’s well behind New York’s toll of 32,756 and New Jersey’s 15,849 dead.

The day’s data had at least one silver lining: Hospitalizations, meanwhile, fell by 137 to 5,932, down from a peak of close to 8,000.

The state also reported 8,436 new cases (more than the prior day) bringing its total to 538,416.

With more than 8,500 coronavirus deaths, and 7,740, respectively, Texas and Florida could pass the same milestone shortly.

* * *

Update (1325ET): Illinois just reported its biggest daily spike in new cases since May for the second day in a row on Friday as cases in the Midwestern state start to make a comeback. For first time in more than 2 months, the state reported 2,000 new COVID-19 cases (2,084 to be exact), while Gov. Pritzker announced new emergency rules for mask requirements.

The state also reported another 21 deaths. The state last passed 2,000 new cases on May 24, with 2,508 new cases reported during a 24-hour period. That brought the state’s total to 190,508, and total deaths to 7,613.

Meanwhile, Miami-Dade hospitalizations have declined to their lowest level in nearly a month…

  • MIAMI-DADE COVID-19 HOSPITAL PATIENTS 1,785, FEWEST SINCE 7/10

* * *

Update (1145ET): NY Gov Cuomo announced Friday that schools can reopen across New York state next month.

He also released the latest COVID-19 numbers.


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5 Ways “The New COVID Normal” Is Getting Worse And Worse

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

It’s been a big few days for the New Normal narrative and, through the deliberately cultivated haze of confusion, it’s not hard to see the world they want to build is taking shape.

1. AUSTRALIA’S CURFEW

The state of Victoria, and the city of Melbourne, have declared a “state of disaster” and instituted a lockdown and curfew. The state’s 6.3 million inhabitants, nearly 5 million in the city, have to follow these restrictions:

  • Workplaces and shops that are not deemed essential will close or reduce their hours from Wednesday midnight but services such as supermarkets, petrol stations and doctors will remain open.

  • “Permitted” or essential workers will have to carry a special permit to work outside the home.

  • There is a nightly curfew in force: between the hours of 8pm and 5am you cannot leave home except for work or to get or provide urgent care.

  • You must stay within five kilometres of your home to shop or exercise.

  • If you leave the house to exercise, it should be for only one hour each day.

  • While up to two people can still exercise together, people should shop on their own – groups in public, even from the same household, are no longer allowed.

  • Schools will shift to remote learning except for vulnerable students and children of permitted workers.

  • Childcare centres will close to all but vulnerable children and those of essential workers.

  • Funerals can continue with a maximum of 10 people but weddings are off except for rare, compassionate reasons.

Since march, Australia has had 247 Covid19 deaths, across the entire country. The median age of these deaths is over 80.

2. UK DOCTOR: “MEN SHOULD TAKE FEMALE HORMONES TO PREVENT COVID19 INFECTION”

Dr Amir Khan appeared on ITV’s Good Morning Britain today, suggesting men – who are notionally at increased risk of coronavirus infection – should take a contraceptive pill filled


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ValueWalk

System error blocked coronavirus stimulus checks from being sent to 26 states

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Discussions are still ongoing to finalize the next coronavirus package. If things go as per the expectations, we could have a stimulus deal next week and the IRS would start sending out the checks. Many, however, are still waiting for their first coronavirus stimulus checks, including those who didn’t get the payment due to an IRS system error.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

No coronavirus stimulus checks yet

As per an updated message on the IRS ...



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Zero Hedge

House Ethics Committee Finds Rashida Tlaib Violated Campaign Finance Rules

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Jack Philips via The Epoch Times,

The House Ethics Committee found Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a member of the so-called “Squad,” violated campaign finance rules by receiving a campaign salary after she was no longer a candidate.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Why stock splits disappeared from our lives

 

Why stock splits disappeared from our lives

Courtesy of 

Apple is splitting its stock 4-for-1 in two weeks. What does it mean for you? What might it mean for the broader market? And why have stock split announcements become so scarce in recent years? Did something change?

The peak of the stock split era was from 1995 through 2000. Investors were buying stocks specifically because they were about to split. It was one of the dopiest aspects of an ...



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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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