Author Archive for Zero Hedge

Dollar & Bond Yields Tumble As Powell Hints At Bond Purchases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1440ET): When pressed on the actions that The Fed might take to manage year-end 'malarkey' in the funding markets, Fed Chair Powell admitted – as we had pre-warned – that The Fed was open to purchasing coupons (not just bills):

"If it does become appropriate to buy something other than Treasury bills, the Fed will do so. "

This sparked selling in the USD and a bid for 2y notes – exactly what we warned about in October.

Source: Bloomberg

We suspect, if Poszar is correct, that this QE4 (for real) will occur much sooner than Powell thinks.

*  *  *

The dollar is the highlight among price action following The Fed statement, tumbling back below its Oct 30th pre-FOMC levels. Bond yields are sliding lower also and stocks have reflexively rallied modestly…

A big drop in the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

And bond yields are sliding…

Source: Bloomberg

As algos lift stocks back above VWAP

With the rate-trajectory signaling no rate-cut until at least Dec 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

But don't forget that the market is still priced notably below the Fed's Median Dot-Plot…

Source: Bloomberg

 

 





With Bridgewater’s Flagship Fund Trailing Peers, Dalio Shifts Focus To Mentoring Sean “Diddy” Combs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With his flagship Pure Alpha II fund lagging many of its peers, one would think now is a great time for Ray Dalio to consider new ways to get his investors back on track.

Instead, Dalio has gone a different route: mentoring rap stars on the ways of high finance.

Dalio took to Twitter on Tuesday to announce that his new apprentice is hip-hop entrepreneur Sean “Diddy” Combs. In his Tweet, he posted a 25 minute video of a "mentoring session" with Combs, where the two explored techniques including “radical open mindedness.”

Yes, this is coming from the guy with surveillance cameras in his meeting rooms…

“You will also see why I want to help him and why I believe our relationship exemplifies how people with different backgrounds and different perspectives can work together harmoniously for the greater good,” Dalio said on Twitter. 

As we noted days ago, Dalio's rise to celebrity status belies his firm's lagging returns of late.

Strangely, the height of Dalio's popularity appears to be happening at a time when the $40 billion Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund is posting what Bloomberg calls one of its "worst years on record".  

Let's see how this new bit of news fares with Dalio's investors. 


 





Cycle Top? CEO Resignations Jump Amid Collapse In Corporate Confidence

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

CEOs generally have a good lead on the economy and can spot acceleration and deceleration periods in the business cycle. With the current economy cycling lower into year-end, CEOs are departing companies at a record rate, fastest in nearly two decades, amid their collapse in confidence in the outlook of the economy. 

Bloomberg notes that CEOs are voluntarily abandoning ship [their respected companies] as the economic expansion slows and risks a further deceleration into 2020 with the treat of a mild recession in the back half of the year. 

"Historical patterns indicate that when we see this rate of turnover, the economic expansion is almost certainly in its final inning," Bloomberg warned.

Several studies show CEO turnover occurs during the boom cycle and right before a turning point in the economy. As we noted, CEOs have a lead on the economy and understand when a turning could be nearing. 

So it makes sense why the turn over rate is at 17-year highs in the "greatest economy ever," because CEOs understand what could happen next, after all this economic hype from President Trump is exhausted (likely next year) — the economy could turn down. 

Deutsche Bank Research published a spread between corporate confidence and consumer confidence. It shows while the consumer is feeling wondering about the "greatest economy ever," CEOs are quietly exhibiting unprecedented pessimism about the outlook. 

CEOs and C-Suite folks, all of whom have a firm grasp of what lays ahead of the US economy in 2020, are also selling stock at record amounts as markets are pumped to new highs on "trade optimism" headlines and massive central bank money printing. 

Historical patterns show that when CEOs abandon their positions and C-Suite folks dump high amounts of stock, they all know what's coming: a recession. 

 

 

 





Gundlach Blames “Fed Manipulation” For Repo Market Madness

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It wasn't so long ago that Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital, said he would never again appear on CNBC, after a particularly contentious interview last year that led to some brief drama between him and Jim Cramer.

But on Wednesday afternoon, Gundlach invited "the Judge" – CNBC's Scott Wapner – to his company's offices for an hour-long interview where Gundlach explained his relatively recent turn toward bullishness on the US economy and equity market – even though he still has all the long-term gripes about the Fed and monetary policy that he's shared with business journalists for years.

Gundlach started off by saying that "one of the most important statements that has gotten less play than it should is Jay Powell said in late October that we would have to see a 'significant' rise in inflation that is persistent to even consider raising interest rates to fight inflation."

To Gundlach, it's evidence that the Fed wants to keep benchmark rates below the rate of inflation to keep negative real rates in effect for the US economy. He also claimed that the Fed "knows we have a debt problem" and probably wants to push the day of reckoning as far into the future as possible.

"So the Fed wants inflation to be higher, actually, and they've contextualized this by saying 'well, 2% was our target for many years and we fell short, so now we need to fill the gap', which makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think it's cover for wanting interest rates to basically be below the inflation rate, which seems to be the game plan for central banks in developed countries around the world."

"So now we have the 10-year Treasury yield is below the inflation rate and CPI is up at 2%, core CPI is up higher than 2%, and yet the interest rates are being kept below that. The Fed knows that we have a debt problem in the United States and that the way to push the day of reckoning out into the future is to keep interest rates below the inflation rate."

Overall, Gundlach's comments about Jay Powell were largely negative, though he appears to disagree with President Trump about the


continue reading





IATA Slashes 2019 Global Airline Profit Forecast Amid Mounting Macroeconomic Headwinds 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the global economy continues to decelerate into year-end, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is out with a new report warning that airline profits are expected to fall much faster than thought in 2019, with slowing likely to continue through 2020. 

IATA placed most of the blame for the slowdown on the trade wars that have stymied global growth and led to investment uncertainties. 

Reuters noted that IATA slashed its 2019 net profit forecast to $25.9 billion, a 5.1% drop from 2018. 

IATA warned that the global airline industry could see a trough, but that was contingent on whether "trade optimism" continued. 

IATA slashed its 2019 revenue forecast to $838 billion from the $899 billion and said it could see an improvement to $872 billion for 2020. Still, again, the optimism was contingent on a trade resolution between the US and China. 

"Slowing economic growth, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and social unrest, plus continuing uncertainty over Brexit, all came together to create a tougher than anticipated business environment for airlines. Yet the industry managed to achieve a decade in the black, as restructuring and cost-cutting continued to pay dividends," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO.

De Juniac stated that he believes the global economy will bottom in the near term, and 2020 could be a brighter year. Though he might be mistaken, betting on an economic rebound based on "trade optimism" — considering structural declines in the global economy were present several quarters before the trade war started. With China's credit impulse failing to turn up significantly, we don't dispute the idea that stabilization could be seen in the global economy in 2020. Still, the bet of a massive rebound seems far fetched at the moment. 

"It appears that 2019 will be the bottom of the current economic cycle, and the forecast for 2020 is somewhat brighter. The big question for 2020 is how capacity will develop, particularly when, as expected, the grounded 737 MAX aircraft returned to service and delayed deliveries arrive," said De Juniac.

IATA said airlines' net profit per passenger dropped to $5.70 this year from $6.22 in 2018, with the industry's overall


continue reading





“Happening Everywhere In Retail” – Home Depot Links Surge In Thefts To Opioid Crisis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The opioid crisis is evolving and is now becoming a burden on retailers, as addicts race to brick and mortar stores, hoping to steal merchandise, and if successful, sell it on the street or pawn it for cash to pay for their next fix.

An absolutely shocking account of this has come from Home Depot executives, who warn that the nation's out of control opioid crisis has sparked a massive surge in thefts in stores across the country.

Bloomberg says the thefts have been so bad in 2019, that it will likely weigh on Home Depot's operating profit margins next year.

"This is happening everywhere in retail," Chief Executive Officer Craig Menear told investors on a Wednesday morning call.

"We think this ties to the opioid crisis but we're not positive about that."

Home Depot is the first retailer to suggest that the opioid crisis has sparked a recent surge in in-store thefts.

The National Retail Federation has said retailers lose, on average, $51 billion per year, but that number is likely to climb in the years ahead due to the opioid crisis.

In one instance, Menear told investors during the call that thieves were apprehended by law enforcement after attempting to steal $16.5 million worth of goods, of which $1.4 million was headed to Home Depot's stores.

He said many Home Depot stores have been taking high-value inventory, like power tools, off sales floors to avoid thefts.

"We have to be vigilant about it," Ann-Marie Campbell, Home Depot's executive vice president of U.S. stores, said.

"We have initiated several pilots to reduce shrink across the board."

Bloomberg said the increased thefts, possibly linked to opioids, was a "significant" reason why the home improvement retailer's operating profit margins will slide to 14% in 2020.

Home Depot shares slid 2% Wednesday on the news of a weakening outlook and increased thefts.

With millions of


continue reading





Techno Fog’s Giant List Of MSM Hacks Who Swore FBI Didn’t Rely On Steele Dossier

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi wrote on Tuesday following the release of the long-awaited DOJ Inspector General's report on FISA abuse, the FBI went to "extraordinary, almost comical lengths to seek surveillance authority of figures like Trump aide Carter Page."

And as the credibility of the so-called 'Steele Dossier' was rapidly unraveling amid claims that the FBI relied heavily upon the now-discredited document, Democrats and their media lapdogs shifted into overdrive in early 2018 to insist that the agency didn't rely on – or barely relied on – the salacious, Clinton-funded document as part of Carter Page's FISA warrant application.

Keep in mind – New York Times journalist Ali Watkins was sleeping with the married former director of security for the Senate Intelligence Committee - who gave her a copy of Carter Page's FISA applicationwhile the rest of the media and their cronies either swore the FBI's use of the Steele dossier was minimal – or insisted that its claims were either substantiated or 'not disproven.'

To that end, an attorney and researcher who goes by the Twitter handle 'Techno Fog' (@Techno_Fog) has compiled a giant list of media hacks who breathlessly peddled the falsehood about the dossier's inclusion in the FBI's application. And let's also not forget the fact that the FISA court kicked the application back, resulting in an FBI lawyer fabricating evidence to omit the fact that Carter Page worked with the CIA.

Without further ado:


continue reading





Blain: Tomorrow’s UK Election Will Be Shockingly Binary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Blain's Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

“Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow there’ll be sun!”

One day more….

As trade war mumbleswerves rumble on (no more tariff increases), the Impeachment case continues to build its own pointless momentum,  Aramco opens limit up (+10%) (Hint – sell!), and we get ready for Christine Lagarde facing the media after running her first ECB Meeting, all eyes are on the UK – our little island set in a silver sea – where tomorrow we get to vote for the least bad of some very poor choices.  

Suddenly, we have last minute wobbles in UK election predictions. Suddenly, the predicted Tory landslide may be less than expected.   Suddenly, a hung Parliament is, apparently, a “real” possibility. Suddenly, these long Sterling positions look very dangerous.  Suddenly, Labour party are eating into Conservative Support – or so says one poll.  Suddenly I see… the Great Game of British Self Flagellation might be extended for another 5 years or so. Joy oh Joy.. !

Please remove all sharp objects from my desk if it happens. 

Of course, hungoparlphobia is exactly what they Tory strategists want us to fear most.  Scare the Bejesus out of us. Present us with a shocking vision of five more years of excruciating Laura Kuenssberg opinions reports, Andrew Neil public vivisections, Naga and Charlie insulting guests on the Brek-drek couch.  Who would possibly not want that..? (The BBC and Channel 4 will love it – 5 more years of political indecision will ensure no one is asking them the hard questions about what they think their role is in elections. Should they merely report the news, or continue to set the news?) 

Like it not, this election is a critical moment for the UK.  We can move forward and elect a government no one (particularly me) is going to be particularly happy about, or we can continue to wallow in our ongoing collective cognitive dissonance over Brexit.  It’s really simple. It’s not actually about parties, party politics or policies – good or bad as they might be. It’s about making a choice of having a government empowered to act, or not.

Imagine


continue reading





Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Avoid Admitting QE4 Has Begun & Repocalypse Is Imminent

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Fed's balance sheet is expanding at a record rate and 'turn' repo rates are soaring (despite endless daily liquidity provisions); so today's FOMC press conference will be fun to see Powell squirm as he desperately avoids any admission that The Fed is in panic mode – which it is – and will never, ever raise rates ever again (which it won't)…

If everything's so awesome in the economy, why is all of the above occurring?

Watch Live (due to start at 1430ET):

 

 

 





Porsche Has Received 30,000 Pre-Orders For Taycan Electric Sports Car

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As Tesla's market share of the electric vehicle space becomes more contested in early 2020, Reuters has reported that Porsche CEO Oliver Blume told Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper that 30,000 customers in Europe have already placed down payments for its Taycan electric sportscar. 

Blume told the paper that each customer had paid 2,500 euros to reserve the vehicle, and 10,000 of them have placed a firm order to buy the car. 

He said the numbers so far have exceeded the company's expectations.

Taycan, which is Porsche's first series production electric car, will head to US dealerships in 2020. The company is planning on delivering 20,000 of the vehicles next year.

Taycan will compete against the Tesla Model S, both have comparable ranges of approximately 300 miles, and similar acceleration time of 0-60 mph in 3 to 3.5 seconds. 

Porsche is introducing its first electric car into the US market as Tesla controls about 75-80% of US electric vehicle sales. 

Shown below, Tesla Model 3 (estimates via automakers, Clean Technica) was the top-selling electric car in the US in Q3, with about 43,000 units sold. Next was the Tesla Model X with about 6,000 units, Chevy Bolt with 4,800 units, and Tesla Model S with 4,000 units sold.

US electric vehicle sales for the first nine months of the year show that Tesla dominated the US electric car market.

Tesla has noticeably had a jump in the electric vehicle space, but its domination could be running out of time in the early 2020s as major manufacturers, like Porsche and Audi, are bringing online new models that have started series production, which will start entering the US markets in late 2019 and early 2020, ultimately will unleash electric car deflation and drive down prices that could financially strain the "modified Ponzi scheme" known as Tesla. 

 

 

 

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Russia's Only Aircraft Carrier Has Erupted In Flames

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

According to TASS News and social media footage, a fire has erupted onboard Russia's only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, at a naval dock in Murmansk, northwest Russia. The aircraft carrier was undergoing repairs and maintenance when fuel tanks caught fire.

RT News...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

The British election explained in five key phrases

 

The British election explained in five key phrases

Courtesy of Veronika Koller, Lancaster University

The UK government’s decision to hold its third general election since 2015 is a baffling one to many – including the weary voters who have to take part.

Tensions have been high as the country attempts to resolve the identity crisis first sparked by the Brexit vote in 2016. It’s a complicated moment for the nation and, at times like these, it can help to observe the big issues through the lens of language. The slogans and terms that get thrown around again and again during a campaign can often tell us a lot about the bigger picture. Here are five such slogans that can help explain what’s happening in the UK right now.

‘Get Br...

more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) Making A Run For the "Gold"?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Mining company Freeport McMoRan NYSE: FCX is enjoying the tailwind from a strong year for gold and silver prices. And although Copper prices are down, Copper has been turning up lately.

This has helped Freeport’s stock price recover in 2019 and has FCX testing a key breakout level.

Below is a “weekly” chart of Freeport McMoRan (FCX). The shaded channel outlined by each (1) highlights the longer-term downtrend that FCX has been stuck in.

But this could change on a dime, especially if FCX can breakout above (2). This area represents its re...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The MBA's index of mortgage application activity for the latest week is schedule for release at 7:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Consumer Price Index for November will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Census Bureau quarterly services survey report for the third quarter is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey report for December will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on petroleum inventories in the U.S. is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET.
  • The U.S. Treasury budget report for November will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
  • ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



more from Lee

Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 
Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices. The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).




 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



more from Our Members

The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



more from Tech. Traders

Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>