Archive for the ‘Members’ Corner’ Category

Why Trump Can’t Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 3

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (Source)

Courtesy of Bill Eddy, President of the High Conflict Institute

Once again, today’s news raises issues that I addressed a year ago regarding candidate Donald Trump. It amazes me how many people expect change and improvement from those who demonstrate the four key high-conflict personality characteristics: all-or-nothing thinking, unmanaged emotions, extreme behavior or threats, and a preoccupation with blaming others.

This week in an article dated August 4, 2017, New Yorker magazine author Robin Wright asks: Why Does Trump Remain So Witless about the World?” She spoke with foreign-policy advisers from eight past Administrations, who were “aghast” that he hasn’t learned anything about the world since he took office six months ago. Yet I believe this was predictable. The following is a part of an article I wrote over a year ago, just before the Republican convention that seems even more relevant (and frightening) today:

5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn

This week Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA, said that he could not support Donald Trump because he doesn’t seem to be learning anything in the foreign policy area. This includes Trump’s repeated statements for waterboarding alleged terrorists, which violates the law and Hayden says would not be followed by the U. S. military. This raises the question of when Trump will learn what he needs to know to be president. My concern is that his high-conflict personality prevents him from learning these lessons, for the following reasons:

  1. All-or-nothing thinking: Trump seems to believe that he has a wonderful brain and already knows everything he needs to know to be president. It’s simple and only he has the answers—and he already has them. He doesn’t study policy, doesn’t surround himself with advisors and doesn’t listen.
  2. Intense emotions: He lets his emotions dominate the moment, which means that he gets easily distracted by his emotional reactions such as bickering for


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Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

Cheri: Cohen's claims appear to be backed up by irrefutable evidence, indicating that the main (if not the sole) reason Trump ran for President was to benefit his businesses. The only way Trump was going to be able to have Trump Tower Moscow was to borrow the money from a Russian bank sanctioned by the U.S. Those sanctions had to be lifted in order to achieve this objective. And as president, Trump could make that happen. There were apparent quid pro quo maneuvers to complement that deal, such as forcing softer language favoring Putin into the RNC platform regarding Ukraine. And with the new Democratic House, Trump's free ride will likely come to a screeching halt.

***

11-17-18:

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women.

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful? 

Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.

The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”.  If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.

Ilene: What should


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What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions… then aim for a thousand vetoes

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog.You can also find his books and short stories at his website

 

What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions… then aim for a thousand vetoes

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Okay so the Democrats got one half of one-third of the U.S. government. Can they actually do anything, opposed by a GOP-controlled Senate and a White House ruled by a vindictive toddler? In fact there are many possibilities — some of them (see below) likely to shock and surprise, with judo-like effectiveness — if only someone gave the new House leadership brain-boost pills. 

That snark is only partly deserved. Nancy Pelosi and her team have already crafted a top priority bill for the 116th Congress. “HR1” will push for many of the electoral reforms I’ll discuss below. Mark Pocan (D-Wi) said that HB1 will reestablish voting rights for all, specifically outlawing the interstate cross check system and removing barriers to being able to cast a vote. 

(HR1 for the 115th Congress was the treasonous Tax Bill that stole from our kids, sent debt skyrocketing, raped the middle class and gifted more than half a trillion dollars to top 0.001% elites, who were supposed to spend it all expanding “supply” through investments in R&D and industrial productive capacity. As with all “Supply Side” promises, this one was instantly broken – most of the largesse went to stock buy-backs, a practice that the Greatest Generation wisely made illegal.)

And yes, oh you lefty purists out there, electoral reform and other process issues are more urgent than futile railings about health care or immigration! You will get nowhere with your agendas unless first we eliminate the cosmic levels of cheating that now warp U.S. elections, especially in every Red State. Everyone in our loose, broad coalition-to-save-America agrees on that. So that has to come first.

Oh, but go ahead and announce your priorities! Like…


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Cheri Jacobus on Politics with PSW

We updated this Q&A with Cheri and named it "Blue Wave" (here). Also read our first Q&A, called "The GOP with Cheri Jacobus".

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts about the current political environment with us in our August interview, and now we’re following up. 

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women. 

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful? 

Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.

The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was New Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”.  If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.

Ilene: What should the Democrats be doing now in preparation for 2020?

Cheri: Democrats need to address the Trump scandals and that of his Administration early, and with force, controlling the political agenda these next two years heading into a presidential election season.  Don’t blink.  Don’t hesitate.  Don’t go soft. Also, be clear that he and some in the GOP Congress are racists. Start by censuring white supremacist Cong. Steve King (R-IA) on day one, thereby forcing his Republican colleagues to either join Democrats in attacking racism head on, or voting to support the white supremacists in their ranks. Show the minorities who turned out to vote in the midterms that they didn’t waste their time, and that they should vote Democrat again in 2020.

Ilene: Did Trump’s firing Jeff Sessions one day after the election and installing Matthew Whitaker in his place surprise you? What
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NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEET THE KGB SPIES WHO INVENTED FAKE NEWS





Factory of lies: Russia’s disinformation playbook exposed

 

Factory of lies: Russia's disinformation playbook exposed

By Ben Popken, NBC News

Americans who want to be ready for the next Russian attack can just read an old newspaper.

During the Cold War, hundreds of bogus headlines around the world appeared: The U.S. invented AIDS. Wealthy Americans were adopting children to harvest their organs. If these sound like the kind of conspiracies pushed by Russian trolls during the 2016 election, there’s a good reason: They were once promulgated by Russian or Soviet agents.

Russia has a century-old playbook for “disinformation,” historians and former intelligence officers say, recycling tactics and narratives, and giving clues to detect their next information-warfare attack on our elections.

“I believe in Russia they do have their own manual that essentially prescribes what to do,” said Clint Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former FBI agent.

“The main difference is the technology available to them,” said Todd Leventhal, a retired senior counter-disinformation officer at the State Department. “The methodology is the same.” 

Read the full article here.

NBC News Signal presents factory of lies: Democracy under attack

 





Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency





Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of ‘woke’ corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and "What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’?" ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford and Sarah Zipp, University of Stirling

Nike reignited a culture war recently by revealing Colin Kaepernick as their spokesperson for the 30th anniversary “Just Do It” campaign. The sportswear brand’s announcement came via a new advert in which young African Americans, Muslim women, physically impaired athletes and white skateboarders all encourage the viewer to follow their dreams, no matter how crazy.

Nike is clearly taking advantage of hot-button social issues to promote their brand, but commercialising human rights is tricky territory. Can a global brand like Nike really support a cause without coopting it? And is the company prepared to face scrutiny over its own ethical record?

Colin Kaepernick, a former National Football League (NFL) star, knelt during the pre-game national anthem in August 2016, in silent protest at police brutality and in the wake of several high-profile police shootings of unarmed African American men.

Nike’s new campaign ad in Times Square, New York. Alba Vigaray/EPA

Dozens of fellow NFL players, of all backgrounds and heritages, followed suit and the protest soon included players from every team in the league. The backlash was swift and severe, with conservative pundits, veterans and president Donald Trump decrying the protests as disrespectful to the American flag and military.

The latest salvo in the debate was launched by Kaepernick’s narration of the advert, prompting a social media hashtag urging people to “#BurnYourNikes”. Some observers in the US seemed to think that Nike had gone too far, while the company’s share price and brand approval ratings fell, at least, in the short-term.

Nike’s skeletons in the closet

Kaepernick’s role as a Nike brand ambassador may seem like political theatre, intended to antagonise Donald Trump and his supporters. However, the reality is much more…
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There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues that Trump has been a Russian asset for over three decades in "Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?". Taking a different view from Chait, , in "A Theory of Trump Kompromat", argues that the most likely explanation for Trump's servility towards Putin is that Trump is beholden to Putin due to years of shady financial dealings with Russian actors. ~ Ilene

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?

Time for Occam’s Razor

By Thom Hartmann, Common Dreams

"If Mueller exposes financial fragility on Trump’s part, it may tip the first domino that then causes the entire Trump empire to collapse." (Photos by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

"If Mueller exposes financial fragility on Trump’s part, it may tip the first domino that then causes the entire Trump empire to collapse." (Photos by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)

There are three general theories to explain Trump’s behavior toward Russia (and other hard-right broadly autocratic regimes), and for unknown reasons the two most likely ones are almost entirely absent from our electronic media. The three theories, in ascending order of likelihood, are:

  • The Manchurian Candidate: He’s being blackmailed or has been a Russian asset for years.
  • The Wannabe Dictator: He believes that countries should be run like companies—essentially autocracies.
  • The Deadbeat: He’s not only not rich, but he’s badly in debt, and Russian billionaires are among his main creditors.

The Manchurian Candidate theory was largely the one Democrats implied during the election, and most have implicitly embraced since then, along with many commentators on MSNBC and CNN. It’s the least likely, although if it’s true Robert Mueller will probably be letting us all know soon. But there’s little in Trump’s past that would suggest


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Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting for Donald Trump in the last election. They did this with a backdoor data-gathering operation that had been quietly shut down after it had harvested the information from up to 50 million people. Cambridge weaponized this information by turning out highly personalized newsfeed content aimed directly at households in critical voting districts." ~ Joshua Brown

Key players in the latest war on democracy include Cambridge Analytica (CA) (the voter-profiling firm used by Trump's campaign in the 2016 election); SCL Group (British political and defense contractor that owns Cambridge Analytica); Robert Mercer (US hedge-fund billionaire, Republican donor, major investor in CA); Rebekah Mercer (Mercer’s daughter, board member of CA); Stephen Bannon (former executive chairman of Breitbart News, former head of CA, former Trump campaign and White House adviser); the Trump campaign; Facebook ("launchpad for an extraordinary attack on the democratic process"); Christopher Wylie (CA whistleblower); Alexander Nix (CA's CEO who set up the company with an investment from Mercer); Aleksandr Kogan (researcher who set up Global Science Research to carry out CA’s research, beneficiary of Russian government grants); Thisisyourdigitallife (app built by Aleksandr Kogan to collect data from Facebook); and Lukoil (Russian oil giant which alledged interacted with CA employees).

How Trump Consultants Exploited the Facebook Data of Millions (NY Times)

LONDON — As the upstart voter-profiling company Cambridge Analytica prepared to wade into the 2014 American midterm elections, it had a problem.

The firm had secured a $15 million investment from Robert Mercer, the wealthy Republican donor, and wooed his political adviser, Stephen K. Bannon, with the promise of tools that could identify the personalities of American voters and influence their behavior.


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Phil's Favorites

Global warming 'hiatus' is the climate change myth that refuses to die

 

Global warming 'hiatus' is the climate change myth that refuses to die

riphoto3 / shutterstock

Courtesy of Kevin Cowtan, University of York and Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Bristol

The record-breaking, El Niño-driven global temperatures of 2016 have given climate change deniers a new trope. Why, they ask, hasn’t it since got even hotter?

In response to a recent US government report on...



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Zero Hedge

"Elon Wants This Fat P*ssy": Azealia Banks Posts Text Message Flame War With Grimes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just a couple of days ago we posted that subpoenas could be forthcoming for Elon Musk's ex-girlfriend, Grimes, and Musk’s one time houseguest Azealia Banks, as part of an investor lawsuit against Musk for last summer's "funding secured" fiasco. We said in the post that the discovery process in the case could lead to interesting information as to what was going on behind the scenes, and in the mind of the parties invo...



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Chart School

Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Bitcoin and the technology boom of 1990's have so much in common, you would think they are twins!

Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver

The chart below shows how similar each story is.

Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones...

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ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>