Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Craigsa620
Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.
Batman
Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.
Doro165
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Singapore Steve
Thanks, after years of blood and blunders, I have reached a significant milestone – I don't lose money. Net net, I rarely have a losing week, market up, market down. And that I owe to you. Balanced positions. More premium sold than bought. Fundamental criteria applied to good companies, not momentum/ news headlines/ stock du jour/ triangle squeezies. But rather earnings, P/E, dividends, competitive position — the boring stuff that takes study, thought,….and patience. You have been a great teacher, and I have embarassed myself repeatedly day with how slowly I learn. And it's a funny thing – if you don't lose, the gains start to pile up. The arithmetic is cruel to the downside, and becomes a gift in the other direction. And I'm in this for the long run, having made myself unemployable through a need for diversification. Moreover, what I've learned here has also elided into other areas, including real estate and ex-U.S. investment. Pretty cool. Have a great weekend.
Zeroxzero
Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast! I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.
Gel1
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.
Pstas
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.
Captain Mogul
I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.
Knightpilot
Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?
Craigzooka
Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...
Magret
Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!
Jelutuck
PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.
Winston
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?
Matt1966
Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!
TmDecay
What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.
Silentstorm
Thanks Phil for all you do. I feel like I don't read all the newsprint because when I check in with you I know I get the "real" scoop. Your service is number Uno in my book for all the knowledge and teaching. I ignored the aapl spin and am now enjoying some rewards. Every AM I get my Phil fix and throughout the day any important links. Mucho gracias. It leaves me time for my volunteer work besides the investing.
Pirateinvestor
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.
Pharmboy
Phil: Thank You! Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!
Lincoln
Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.
DB
I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.
Gel1
We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.
Newthugger
I subscribed to Phils Stock World full service for a year or so and found that it was extremely helpful. Now I just get the Stock World Weekly summary, which I find invaluable. Phil does not baby people and certainly can't make someone into a successful stock operator who does not make the effort on their own behalf, but he is extremely generous with his time in answering newbie questions. Although I found it difficult to follow and implement all his trades in real time, what I did find was that once you got the hang of his methodology and way of thinking, you could work out your own trades and be quite successful. Even just using his patent Rule Number One* alone is worth its weight in gold. Rule Number Two is even better.
Rookie IRA Investor
I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.
Prof
Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !
Gel1
You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.
Dclark41
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
Brenteaz
Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).
JJennings
I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.
Craigsa620
There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.
Jr Mints
by phil - March 4th, 2019 11:27 pm
Are you ready to retire?
For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire. In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.
Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic – to say the least – with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives. A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.
Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) and 20 years (6.7%) than any other investing vehicle and, if that keeps up, a stock market portfolio may give you the best chance of obtaining a functional retirement. At 7% a year, if you want to generate a $70,000 annual income, you need to have $1M invested but it would be a tragedy if the market dropped 30% and then you had $700,000 and 7% of that is only $49,000 so you have less money coming in AND not enough to live on – keep that in mind when coming up with your "Comfort Number" and, by all means – speak to a Financial Professional who can help you plan by taking into account your own circumstances!
While some investors shy away from stock options because of their reputation for being akin to gambling, we disagree. Stock options are an important tool for supplementing your stock investing. Options, when used correctly and strategically, allow you to “Be the House, NOT the Gambler”. While no one in the casino always wins, the odds favor the dealer. We’ll show you how to structure your investments to keep the odds in your favor, like the dealer in a casino.
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by ilene - February 27th, 2019 3:50 pm
WATCH LIVE: Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen testifies before the House Oversight Committee
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by ilene - January 8th, 2019 1:18 pm
Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene
Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (Source)
Courtesy of Bill Eddy, President of the High Conflict Institute
Once again, today’s news raises issues that I addressed a year ago regarding candidate Donald Trump. It amazes me how many people expect change and improvement from those who demonstrate the four key high-conflict personality characteristics: all-or-nothing thinking, unmanaged emotions, extreme behavior or threats, and a preoccupation with blaming others.
This week in an article dated August 4, 2017, New Yorker magazine author Robin Wright asks: “Why Does Trump Remain So Witless about the World?” She spoke with foreign-policy advisers from eight past Administrations, who were “aghast” that he hasn’t learned anything about the world since he took office six months ago. Yet I believe this was predictable. The following is a part of an article I wrote over a year ago, just before the Republican convention that seems even more relevant (and frightening) today:
5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn
This week Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA, said that he could not support Donald Trump because he doesn’t seem to be learning anything in the foreign policy area. This includes Trump’s repeated statements for waterboarding alleged terrorists, which violates the law and Hayden says would not be followed by the U. S. military. This raises the question of when Trump will learn what he needs to know to be president. My concern is that his high-conflict personality prevents him from learning these lessons, for the following reasons:
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by ilene - December 11th, 2018 9:57 pm
By Ilene at Phil's Stock World
Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.
Updated 12-10-18
Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?
Cheri: Cohen's claims appear to be backed up by irrefutable evidence, indicating that the main (if not the sole) reason Trump ran for President was to benefit his businesses. The only way Trump was going to be able to have Trump Tower Moscow was to borrow the money from a Russian bank sanctioned by the U.S. Those sanctions had to be lifted in order to achieve this objective. And as president, Trump could make that happen. There were apparent quid pro quo maneuvers to complement that deal, such as forcing softer language favoring Putin into the RNC platform regarding Ukraine. And with the new Democratic House, Trump's free ride will likely come to a screeching halt.
***
11-17-18:
Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?
Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women.
Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful?
Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.
The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”. If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.
Ilene: What should
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by ilene - December 9th, 2018 12:33 pm
Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog.You can also find his books and short stories at his website.
Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog
Okay so the Democrats got one half of one-third of the U.S. government. Can they actually do anything, opposed by a GOP-controlled Senate and a White House ruled by a vindictive toddler? In fact there are many possibilities — some of them (see below) likely to shock and surprise, with judo-like effectiveness — if only someone gave the new House leadership brain-boost pills.
That snark is only partly deserved. Nancy Pelosi and her team have already crafted a top priority bill for the 116th Congress. “HR1” will push for many of the electoral reforms I’ll discuss below. Mark Pocan (D-Wi) said that HB1 will reestablish voting rights for all, specifically outlawing the interstate cross check system and removing barriers to being able to cast a vote.
(HR1 for the 115th Congress was the treasonous Tax Bill that stole from our kids, sent debt skyrocketing, raped the middle class and gifted more than half a trillion dollars to top 0.001% elites, who were supposed to spend it all expanding “supply” through investments in R&D and industrial productive capacity. As with all “Supply Side” promises, this one was instantly broken – most of the largesse went to stock buy-backs, a practice that the Greatest Generation wisely made illegal.)
And yes, oh you lefty purists out there, electoral reform and other process issues are more urgent than futile railings about health care or immigration! You will get nowhere with your agendas unless first we eliminate the cosmic levels of cheating that now warp U.S. elections, especially in every Red State. Everyone in our loose, broad coalition-to-save-America agrees on that. So that has to come first.
Oh, but go ahead and announce your priorities! Like…
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by ilene - November 17th, 2018 5:33 pm
We updated this Q&A with Cheri and named it "Blue Wave" (here). Also read our first Q&A, called "The GOP with Cheri Jacobus".
Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts about the current political environment with us in our August interview, and now we’re following up.
Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?
Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women.
Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful?
Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.
The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was New Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”. If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.
Ilene: What should the Democrats be doing now in preparation for 2020?
Cheri: Democrats need to address the Trump scandals and that of his Administration early, and with force, controlling the political agenda these next two years heading into a presidential election season. Don’t blink. Don’t hesitate. Don’t go soft. Also, be clear that he and some in the GOP Congress are racists. Start by censuring white supremacist Cong. Steve King (R-IA) on day one, thereby forcing his Republican colleagues to either join Democrats in attacking racism head on, or voting to support the white supremacists in their ranks. Show the minorities who turned out to vote in the midterms that they didn’t waste their time, and that they should vote Democrat again in 2020.
Ilene: Did Trump’s firing Jeff Sessions one day after the election and installing Matthew Whitaker in his place surprise you? What…
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by ilene - November 12th, 2018 10:13 pm
This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.
RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE
By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook
EPISODE 1
MEET THE KGB SPIES WHO INVENTED FAKE NEWS
EPISODE 2
THE SEVEN COMMANDMENTS OF FAKE NEWS
EPISODE 3
THE WORLDWIDE WAR ON TRUTH
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by ilene - November 10th, 2018 6:10 pm
Americans who want to be ready for the next Russian attack can just read an old newspaper.
During the Cold War, hundreds of bogus headlines around the world appeared: The U.S. invented AIDS. Wealthy Americans were adopting children to harvest their organs. If these sound like the kind of conspiracies pushed by Russian trolls during the 2016 election, there’s a good reason: They were once promulgated by Russian or Soviet agents.
Russia has a century-old playbook for “disinformation,” historians and former intelligence officers say, recycling tactics and narratives, and giving clues to detect their next information-warfare attack on our elections.
“I believe in Russia they do have their own manual that essentially prescribes what to do,” said Clint Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former FBI agent.
“The main difference is the technology available to them,” said Todd Leventhal, a retired senior counter-disinformation officer at the State Department. “The methodology is the same.”
Read the full article here.
NBC News Signal presents factory of lies: Democracy under attack
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by ilene - September 21st, 2018 11:57 am
This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.
A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency
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by ilene - September 16th, 2018 4:41 pm
Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and "What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’?" ~ Ilene
Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford and Sarah Zipp, University of Stirling
Nike reignited a culture war recently by revealing Colin Kaepernick as their spokesperson for the 30th anniversary “Just Do It” campaign. The sportswear brand’s announcement came via a new advert in which young African Americans, Muslim women, physically impaired athletes and white skateboarders all encourage the viewer to follow their dreams, no matter how crazy.
Nike is clearly taking advantage of hot-button social issues to promote their brand, but commercialising human rights is tricky territory. Can a global brand like Nike really support a cause without coopting it? And is the company prepared to face scrutiny over its own ethical record?
Colin Kaepernick, a former National Football League (NFL) star, knelt during the pre-game national anthem in August 2016, in silent protest at police brutality and in the wake of several high-profile police shootings of unarmed African American men.
Nike’s new campaign ad in Times Square, New York. Alba Vigaray/EPA
Dozens of fellow NFL players, of all backgrounds and heritages, followed suit and the protest soon included players from every team in the league. The backlash was swift and severe, with conservative pundits, veterans and president Donald Trump decrying the protests as disrespectful to the American flag and military.
The latest salvo in the debate was launched by Kaepernick’s narration of the advert, prompting a social media hashtag urging people to “#BurnYourNikes”. Some observers in the US seemed to think that Nike had gone too far, while the company’s share price and brand approval ratings fell, at least, in the short-term.
Kaepernick’s role as a Nike brand ambassador may seem like political theatre, intended to antagonise Donald Trump and his supporters. However, the reality is much more…
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July 20th, 2019 11:00 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
UFO sightings have been making headlines again lately, notably with The New York Times running an interesting article about several U.S. Navy fighter pilots encountering mysterious objects near the southeastern coast of the United States.
That high-profile story remains unexplained and so do plenty of other UFO sightings reported by members of the public every year like strange lights crossing the night sky or orange disks hovering in the distance.
However, as Sta...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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