Archive for the ‘Members’ Corner’ Category

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes for our Political Knife-fight (pp. 56-62). Kindle Edition.    

I may be ostracized for saying it, but the core targets of the Fox/Putin-led oligarchic putsch aren’t racism or sexism or nativism.[80]

Oh, the foremost victims – those most deeply hurt – are minorities, women, immigrants, non-binaries, the disempowered, millions of children and vulnerable others! To varying degrees, they are the ones suffering pain and gross injustice. And sure, bigotry’s dog-whistles have incited America’s worst elements into violent rage. In The New York Times, Charles Blow summarizes: they support Trump because he is mean to the people they like to be mean to.[81]

“Trump’s own punitive spirit aligns with and gives voice and muscle to American conservatives’ long simmering punitive lust. And this insatiable desire to inflict pain has particular targets: women (specifically feminists), racial minorities, people who are L.G.B.T.Q. and religious minorities in this country. In short, the punishments are directed at anyone who isn’t part of, or supportive of, the white supremacist patriarchy.”

Still, turn your gaze upward from pathetic Nazis and jibbering supremacists, to their masters and hypnotizing controllers. Ponder what those masters need. To them, bigotry is incidental – a leverage tool. Their bid for total power is not blocked by the powerless. But it might truly be thwarted by other, competing “elites.” Consider the bleak prospects for enlightened civilization across this current battlefield. With our elections cheat-stolen, our courts stuff-stacked with shills, millions incited into populist madness, and wealth disparities skyrocketing, just one force stands in feudalism’s way. The new lords must neutralize the counter-effectiveness of our fact-professions.[82]

  • Scientists.[83]                 
  • Civil servants.                 
  • Journalists.
  • Law professionals.       


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Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry worldview for decades. Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, Foxocracy: Inside the Network’s Playbook of Tribal Warfare.

If you're trying to understand how Fox News captured so many Americans, this book is for you! 

Discussing Foxocracy with me, Tobin shared his thoughts on the 2020 election, the candidates and the stock market.

Ilene: Tobin, do you think impeaching Trump will hurt the stock market? 

Tobin: No. The market doesn't give a s#*t about an impeachment trial with a GOP Majority in the Senate. It's a nothingburger. 

Ilene: What about the 2020 presidential election?

Tobin: I analyzed the 2016 and 2018 election data deeply. From that data, I can tell you the "Democratic Socialists" have ZERO chance of winning an Electoral College victory or a Democrat Party nomination. If a left-wing moderate wins and Dems take the Senate (a 60% possibility in my model) and pass a repeal (or major change) of the 40% Trump Corporate Tax Cut, the Street will lower EPS by the same amount that it added — so, yes, public equities will undoubtedly get at minimum a 10% correction. 

There is no more of a public critic of Donald Trump as POTUS than me. That said, however, as a macro-economic analyst and equities analyst, what I think many on the left miss about "Trumpism" with regard to the stock market (and US capitalism in general) is not the tax cut but the incredible emotional power of sentiment. Love him or hate him, until he decided to get into a trade war with China, Trump's pro-business and anti-regulation rhetoric and corporate/pass-through entity tax cut absolutely inspired the "animal spirits" of public and private business people who had felt attacked and over-regulated by the Obama administration. Obama's "if you built a business in America, you did not build it by yourself" rhetoric was an emotional hand grenade to many private business people, and it felt like an attack on American capitalism.

Since private companies still employ a majority of Americans, entrepreneurial animal spirits matter — a lot. In my opinion, Dems need to stop the war…
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Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared remarks. “And to be clear, when I say ‘racism, hate and bigotry’ I’m not referring to the names of Stephen Miller’s Labradoodles.”

Watch Cohen's Anti-Defamation League (ADL) Speech:

 

Sacha Baron Cohen's Keynote Address at ADL's 2019 Never Is Now Summit on Anti-Semitism and Hate

Sacha Baron Cohen is the well-deserved recipient of ADL’s International Leadership Award, which goes to exceptional individuals who combine professional success with a profound personal commitment to community involvement and to crossing borders and barriers with a message of diversity and equal opportunity.

Over 100 years ago Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis wrote: “Sunlight is said to be the best disinfectant.” Through his alter egos, many of whom represent anti-Semites, racists and neo-Nazis, Baron Cohen shines a piercing light on people’s ignorance and biases.





Despacito – How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way – SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic – to say the least – with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Image result for stock market returns by decade 2018

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) and 20 years (6.7%) than any other investing vehicle and, if that keeps up, a stock market portfolio may give you the best chance of obtaining a functional retirement.  At 7% a year, if you want to generate a $70,000 annual income, you need to have $1M invested but it would be a tragedy if the market dropped 30% and then you had $700,000 and 7% of that is only $49,000 so you have less money coming in AND not enough to live on – keep that in mind when coming up with your "Comfort Number" and, by all means – speak to a Financial Professional who can help you plan by taking into account your own circumstances!  

While some investors shy away from stock options because of their reputation for being akin to gambling, we disagree. Stock options are an important tool for supplementing your stock investing. Options, when used correctly and strategically, allow you to “Be the House, NOT the Gambler”. While no one in the casino always wins, the odds favor the dealer. We’ll show you how to structure your investments to keep the odds in your favor, like the dealer in a casino.


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Michael Cohen Testifying Live

 

WATCH LIVE: Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen testifies before the House Oversight Committee





Why Trump Can’t Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 3

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (Source)

Courtesy of Bill Eddy, President of the High Conflict Institute

Once again, today’s news raises issues that I addressed a year ago regarding candidate Donald Trump. It amazes me how many people expect change and improvement from those who demonstrate the four key high-conflict personality characteristics: all-or-nothing thinking, unmanaged emotions, extreme behavior or threats, and a preoccupation with blaming others.

This week in an article dated August 4, 2017, New Yorker magazine author Robin Wright asks: Why Does Trump Remain So Witless about the World?” She spoke with foreign-policy advisers from eight past Administrations, who were “aghast” that he hasn’t learned anything about the world since he took office six months ago. Yet I believe this was predictable. The following is a part of an article I wrote over a year ago, just before the Republican convention that seems even more relevant (and frightening) today:

5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn

This week Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA, said that he could not support Donald Trump because he doesn’t seem to be learning anything in the foreign policy area. This includes Trump’s repeated statements for waterboarding alleged terrorists, which violates the law and Hayden says would not be followed by the U. S. military. This raises the question of when Trump will learn what he needs to know to be president. My concern is that his high-conflict personality prevents him from learning these lessons, for the following reasons:

  1. All-or-nothing thinking: Trump seems to believe that he has a wonderful brain and already knows everything he needs to know to be president. It’s simple and only he has the answers—and he already has them. He doesn’t study policy, doesn’t surround himself with advisors and doesn’t listen.
  2. Intense emotions: He lets his emotions dominate the moment, which means that he gets easily distracted by his emotional reactions such as bickering for


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Blue Wave with Cheri Jacobus (Q&A II, Updated)

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shares her thoughts on the political landscape with us in a follow up to our August interview.

Updated 12-10-18

Ilene: What do you think about Michael Cohen's claim that the Trump Organization's discussions with high-level Russian officials about a deal for Trump Tower Moscow continued into June 2016?

Cheri: Cohen's claims appear to be backed up by irrefutable evidence, indicating that the main (if not the sole) reason Trump ran for President was to benefit his businesses. The only way Trump was going to be able to have Trump Tower Moscow was to borrow the money from a Russian bank sanctioned by the U.S. Those sanctions had to be lifted in order to achieve this objective. And as president, Trump could make that happen. There were apparent quid pro quo maneuvers to complement that deal, such as forcing softer language favoring Putin into the RNC platform regarding Ukraine. And with the new Democratic House, Trump's free ride will likely come to a screeching halt.

***

11-17-18:

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women.

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful? 

Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.

The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”.  If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.

Ilene: What should


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What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions… then aim for a thousand vetoes

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author, and one of the “World’s Best Futurists” — explores a myriad of topics on his lively and always interesting blog: politics, science, history, science fiction, etc. For more posts by David, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog.You can also find his books and short stories at his website

 

What should the House do? Part 1: Veto-proof actions… then aim for a thousand vetoes

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Okay so the Democrats got one half of one-third of the U.S. government. Can they actually do anything, opposed by a GOP-controlled Senate and a White House ruled by a vindictive toddler? In fact there are many possibilities — some of them (see below) likely to shock and surprise, with judo-like effectiveness — if only someone gave the new House leadership brain-boost pills. 

That snark is only partly deserved. Nancy Pelosi and her team have already crafted a top priority bill for the 116th Congress. “HR1” will push for many of the electoral reforms I’ll discuss below. Mark Pocan (D-Wi) said that HB1 will reestablish voting rights for all, specifically outlawing the interstate cross check system and removing barriers to being able to cast a vote. 

(HR1 for the 115th Congress was the treasonous Tax Bill that stole from our kids, sent debt skyrocketing, raped the middle class and gifted more than half a trillion dollars to top 0.001% elites, who were supposed to spend it all expanding “supply” through investments in R&D and industrial productive capacity. As with all “Supply Side” promises, this one was instantly broken – most of the largesse went to stock buy-backs, a practice that the Greatest Generation wisely made illegal.)

And yes, oh you lefty purists out there, electoral reform and other process issues are more urgent than futile railings about health care or immigration! You will get nowhere with your agendas unless first we eliminate the cosmic levels of cheating that now warp U.S. elections, especially in every Red State. Everyone in our loose, broad coalition-to-save-America agrees on that. So that has to come first.

Oh, but go ahead and announce your priorities! Like…


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Cheri Jacobus on Politics with PSW

We updated this Q&A with Cheri and named it "Blue Wave" (here). Also read our first Q&A, called "The GOP with Cheri Jacobus".

Cheri Jacobus is a widely known political consultant, pundit, writer and outspoken former Republican and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, CBS.com, CNBC and C-Span. Cheri shared her thoughts about the current political environment with us in our August interview, and now we’re following up. 

Ilene: Is there a take-home message from election results of 2018?

Cheri: Yes. No political party can survive when it appeals to only one demographic. The GOP has ignored all of the lessons of recent elections that showed they needed to appeal to African-Americans, Latinos, and women. 

Ilene: Do you feel the Democrats were successful? 

Cheri: There are still a couple of House races to be called, but it looks like 38-40 net seat pickup for Democrats, which can only be described as a “blue wave” despite the deniers. Demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat, but that often skip midterm elections, showed up, making it the 3rd largest gain by any party in 40 years.

The historic 1994 midterm elections where Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, was New Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution” with a net gain of 54 seats, often referred to as an electoral “tsunami”.  If 54 seats constitute a tsunami, then certainly 40 seats are a wave.

Ilene: What should the Democrats be doing now in preparation for 2020?

Cheri: Democrats need to address the Trump scandals and that of his Administration early, and with force, controlling the political agenda these next two years heading into a presidential election season.  Don’t blink.  Don’t hesitate.  Don’t go soft. Also, be clear that he and some in the GOP Congress are racists. Start by censuring white supremacist Cong. Steve King (R-IA) on day one, thereby forcing his Republican colleagues to either join Democrats in attacking racism head on, or voting to support the white supremacists in their ranks. Show the minorities who turned out to vote in the midterms that they didn’t waste their time, and that they should vote Democrat again in 2020.

Ilene: Did Trump’s firing Jeff Sessions one day after the election and installing Matthew Whitaker in his place surprise you? What
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NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEET THE KGB SPIES WHO INVENTED FAKE NEWS





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

China Quarantines City Of 11 Million As Hong Kong Confirms Second Case Of Coronavirus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update 6 (1530ET): Hong Kong has reportedly confirmed a second case of coronavirus.

Hong Kong authorities report a second confirmed case of coronavirus. RTHK

— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) January 22, 2020

More details to come...

* * *

Update 5 (1500ET): After praising all of China's efforts to contain the outbreak, the WHO Director General an...



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The Technical Traders

TRADING STRATEGIES FOR GDXJ, SPY, BONDS, AND NATURAL GAS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen joins me today to shares his trading strategy for 4 different markets. While most of these markets are not correlated he has reasons for why he is long in each. Pick and choose where you want to deploy your capital.

Get Chris’ Trade Signals Today – Click Here

...

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Phil's Favorites

Three Things You Can Learn This Week

 

Three Things You Can Learn This Week

Courtesy of 

Three weeks into January and the squad is firing on all cylinders. Three things you can learn this week courtesy of Nick, Michael and Ben:

You will often hear that there is something wrong or artificial about the current secular bull market because of the relatively high concentration of the FAAMG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Three of the five have attained trillion dollar market caps and the other two are getting cl...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga Pro's Top 5 Stocks To Watch For Wed., Jan. 22, 2020: NFLX, TSLA, NNVC, SKT, SPCE

Courtesy of Benzinga

Benzinga Pro's Stocks To Watch For Wednesday

  • Netflix (NFLX) - Shares were up just 0.4% following a Q4 beat and mixed Q1 guidance. The company said it expects Q1 global streaming paid net subscriber additions of about 7 million subs.
  • Tesla (TSLA) - With Tesla shares up 5% in pre-market activity, the company's market cap, at market open, will hit $100 billion for the first time in its history. While a Neutral-rated Wedbush analyst, Daniel Ives, raised his price target on the stock from $370 to $550 this morning, this news item isn't necessarily driving the stock Wednesday as this analyst was mostly playing catch up after not having updated his price targ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>