Inside Russia’s Social Media War on America – TIME
by ilene - May 20th, 2017 1:38 pm
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The Deep State
by ilene - May 18th, 2017 2:37 am
What is "The Deep State"? According to Wikipedia, "The concept of a deep state is that there exists a coordinated effort by career government employees and others to influence state policy without regard for democratically elected leadership." Originally, the term referred to entrenched shadow governments of countries like Turkey and Russia.
Conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters often use "deep state," with conspiratorial undertones, to refer to intelligence officers and government officials who use covert tactics, such as leaking information, to undermine the president (or control the world, depending on the purpose).
In the article below, David Brin discusses the concept of "deep state" and how the term has been co-opted by Trump and the far-right to malign "every profession in U.S. society that deals in facts and knowledge."
The Deep State
Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin
[David Brin is an astrophysicist whose international best-selling novels include The Postman, Earth, and Existence. Dr. Brin serves on advisory boards (e.g. NASA's Innovative and Advanced Concepts program or NIAC) and speaks or consults on a wide range of topics. David Brin's nonfiction book about the information age – The Transparent Society – won the Freedom of Speech Award of the American Library Association.]
"Deep State" is a buzz phrase being used by the confederacy to explain the hostility they face, from every profession in U.S. society that deals in facts and knowledge. Their narrative is that these professions — the same ones that were maligned for decades in right wing media, from science, teaching, economics, skilled labor and journalism to the civil service, law professionals, medical doctors and judges — have colluded to create a truth-bending, Orwellian cabal. And now, note two of the last knowledge castes have been added — members of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the U.S. Military Officer Corps (MOC).
This Deep State – the story goes – has been responsible for both liberal tyranny and American decline from greatness. (See Is Michael Flynn the first casualty of a “deep state” coup? It’s not unthinkable.)
Never mind that these are the same professions that empowered the great burst of creativity and invention and entrepreneurial drive that multiplied our wealth a…
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Selling our Telecom position
by ilene - May 10th, 2017 11:57 pm
John Hempton explains why he is selling Telecom. Does anyone have any thoughts on his thesis/broken thesis?
Selling our Telecom position
Courtesy of John Hempton, Bronte Capital
Several people on twitter and some in person have asked me for an update on my very bullish position on Verizon – especially since the results were not as good as expected last quarter.
I promised I would be forthcoming – but that I wanted to spell it out to our clients first. This is an extract from a client letter.
I want to start with the original bull thesis.
The original thesis
The original thesis came from watching Randall Stephenson (the CEO of AT&T) talk at a Milken Conference in 2012. The original recording is here. The relevant portion of the video starts at about minute 18.
Randall Stevenson tells a story of the iPhone’s introduction. The introduction of smart phones ran the company out of capacity in parts of country. [Apple offered the iPhone exclusively through AT&T in the USA.]
In New York the problems were intense. The complaint in New York was that the iPhone was a great phone so long as you accepted you could not use it as a phone. Jon Stewart mocked the coverage with unusual brutality on the Daily Show (link).
AT&T solved this by more and more capital expenditures. At the time, capex ran at around US$20 billion per annum. AT&T was – other than the government – the single biggest capital spending entity in the US.
Stephenson (speaking in 2012) said that the same problem would recur as usage continued to grow massively. But this time Stephenson argued it is different. He asserted that AT&T would not be able to solve this problem by more capital equipment. Spectrum congestion was inevitable.
He saw this as apocalyptic, but we saw potential pricing power and improving profitability.
We were doing simple arithmetic and getting very large numbers. Most Americans if given a choice between their pay-tv provider and their smart phone would choose the smart phone, but they currently pay more for their pay-TV.
We figured
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How Investors Get Tricked by Yield Products
by ilene - May 4th, 2017 6:47 pm
It the article below, the "high-yield closed fund" that author Eric Newman constructs seems slightly like what a Bernie Madoff Fund might look like, before the investors started asking for their money back.
How Investors Get Tricked by Yield Products
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown
I want to send you over to Eric Newman’s shredding of a popular closed-end fund, which purportedly offers a 20%-plus yield to investors so that you can learn about one of the worst conventions of the investment biz. Eric is the CIO and partner of TFS Capital.
As rates rise (if they rise?) a lot of this type of thing will come back to haunt the investor class and the brokers who’ve been pitching it to people. It’s going to be ugly. You can protect yourself by understanding how the sausage is made.
It’s so good I won’t even excerpt. Just go:
Designing a bizarre Closed-End Fund (TFS Capital)
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On the Climate Change Risk Management, the Paris Agreement & the Clean Power Plan
by ilene - May 2nd, 2017 11:36 pm
Concerned about global warming? Send your thoughts to the EPA and tell Trump that you support the Clean Power Plan.
Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0190 at http://www.regulations.gov.
From the U.S. Federal Register website: In accordance with Executive Order 13777, “Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda,” EPA is seeking input on regulations that may be appropriate for repeal, replacement, or modification. Comments must be received on or before May 15, 2017.
(See also Previous comments. "TIPS for effective comments." Proposed EPA cuts. Commentary on Trump's dangerous climate Executive Order.)
To learn more about climate change risk management and the Paris Agreement, watch this discussion by Dr. Jan Dash. Jan Dash is author of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach and over 60 scientific papers. He is also the Managing Editor for the Climate Portal.
Resources
The Climate Portal has a variety of resources and links for business and climate change. Business, spurred by investors, is waking up to the material risks of climate change. The transition to the huge opportunity of the distributed energy economy is underway. This will mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, if done with all deliberate speed. The future of our grandchildren depends on the success of the renewables transition. The good news is that the renewables train has left the station. The climate contrarians/deniers may try, but they cannot stop it. Have a look. ~ Jan
Business and Climate Change (main page)
****
The Paris Agreement (French: Accord de Paris) is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in…
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Should I buy that stock?
by ilene - April 21st, 2017 10:12 am
Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)
I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.
Four Part Discussion
- Macro Economic Indicators
- Market Indexes
- Fundamental Analysis
- Technical Analysis
1. Macro Economic Indicators
We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market.
A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Data source: Dept. of Commerce/Bureau of Economic Research (https://www.bea.gov/index.htm)
Total market value of US produced goods and services – $18 Trillion.
GDP measures total US economic activity. Positive numbers indicate expansion; negative numbers indicate contraction, i.e., recession. In the past, there usually have been accelerated expansions coming out of recessions. That has not been the case since the Great Recession. 2% annual GDP growth, plus or minus, appears to be the new normal.
The GDP and change in GDP are "lagging" indicators meaning they tells us where we have been. Where the economy is headed falls to GDP forecasts which are regularly issued from various sources.
B. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is used to measure inflation. The CPI measures changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for representative basket of goods and services. Latest report on the last 12 months gave a CPI reading of +2.5%. The Federal Reserve uses a different inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). CPI is based on a survey of what households are buying; PCE is based on surveys of what businesses are selling. Both measures break out "headline" and "core" numbers. Core numbers strip out housing and energy which tend to be more volatile month to month.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- US Dept. of Labor https://www.bls.gov/
C. 10-Year Treasury Note
The Ten Year Treasury is often used as…
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Bombing – Right or Wrong?
by stjeanluc - April 15th, 2017 3:32 pm
Courtesy of Jean-Luc
I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:
Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It
By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones
A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.
Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:
Democrats are about as supportive of the strikes as they were under Obama, with 38 percent backing them in 2013 and 37 percent agreeing with them now, according to the Washington Post. Now 86 percent of Republican voters back the strikes, compared with the just 22 percent who did so in 2013.
This is a pretty stunning difference. Democratic views stayed solidly negative regardless of who was president. But Republican approval rates skyrocketed from 22 percent to 86 percent when Trump became president. This despite the fact that Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons was more extensive in 2013 than it was this year… more >
I mean WTF – because you have a GOP president, strikes are now OK. Liberals a bit more consistent there.
***
SJL, "WTF" is a common (but not highly regarded) form of philosophical reasoning. Instead of looking at the outcome of an action, or examining whether the act itself is right or wrong, this less logical approach considers whether the actor is a republican or a democrat to determine whether the act is right or wrong. ~ Ilene
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CAR-T & CRISPR – the Future is Now
by Pharmboy - April 12th, 2017 10:50 pm
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
PSW Members….it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long. In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.
CAR-T – stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.
From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.
CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar, an Israeli immunologist at the Weizmann Institue of Science. The basic steps are noted below in picture. The insertion of different 'components' and the way the replication of the protein happens (Step 2; Step 2 subitem 4) yields the clinical variations that are competing in this area by the companies.
KITE, JUNO and Novartis all have CD19 directed CAR-T technologies. CD19 was attractive as a CAR-based target therapy because most B-cell leukemias and lymphomas express it, but normal tissue other than the B cell lineage do not. The companies therefore have focused on CD19 first, and there are subtle difference in the way the T-cells are made.
Any modification of the immune system comes with risk, and CAR-T was no exception. Even thought the CAR-T was hailed as a wonder treatment due to is successes in blood born cancer, it also caused some complications. Last year, JUNO hit the wall with their lead, as it caused severe cerebral edema – cytokine storm?? This caused all the CAR-Ts to be evaluated, but in the end, only JUNO's lead was halted. Companies are continually making progress on the CAR-T front, and BLCM seems to be on the cusp of one way to get around a side effect.
BLCM also has a CD19 directed CAR-T program, with a twist that…
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Natterings from the Naybob
by ilene - April 5th, 2017 7:38 pm
Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob
[Click on titles for full articles.]
The American Dream: An Endangered Ethos?
At Danielle DiMartino Booth's The American Dream: An Endangered Ethos -
"It has been a dream of being able to grow to fullest development as man and woman, unhampered by the barriers which had slowly been erected in the older civilizations, unrepressed by social orders which had developed for the benefit of classes rather than for the simple human being of any and every class." No more elegant words were ever written to ensure our ethos would never be endangered. And yet it is at risk of extinction today. It is high time we stand up for what is rightly ours and take back the American Dream for one and for all."
Ever excellent and mental viagra. Musing… Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Homes are sticks and bricks where people live their lives and raise families. All have the right to earn that dream which should not be denied by greedy serial flippers or serial landlords.
Our Corporate Anthem?
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesdays With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump. Over at Philstockworld… High Finance for Real People – Fun and Profits…
Muck – "As long as we allow corporations to buy congress critters we will get more of the same."
Are You Credentialed?
We Nattered… Proving that even so called accredited "experts" can get drunk on their own punch bowl. We covered Ackman's bankrupt investment philosophy and felonious folly in Platform Value: The Fall? Along those lines, re my latest, A Quick
…
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More Natterings
by ilene - March 25th, 2017 6:01 pm
Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob
[Click on the titles for the full articles.]
A Quick $20 Trick?
Summary
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
- Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
- GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
- Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.
Last Time Out
Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital, investment, jobs, wages, spending, asset bubbles and your standard of living. When any policy decision is based in false doctrine, you get distortions which can affect every facet of life. - The President's Analyst?
Weak productivity is symptomatic of a much larger problem. As for the illusion of rising wages, meaningful wage increases have not occurred in decades. The proof in that pudding can be found in one chart where both personal income and spending growth are in a steady 36 YEAR downtrend. - Mary Tyler Moore?
Due to monetary policy effects, some might be attempting to make up the difference between their wages and the cost of living. In chasing that elusive bag and buried market treasure, our theme for tonight's missive turns to a legendary character in an apropos plot…
Straighten Up and Fly Right?
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump…
POTUS Trump’s budget blueprint comes as a surprise. Amid an 18 percent cut to the Department of Health and Human Services — including one-fifth of the National Institutes of Health’s budget — the administration has said it will prioritize funding for important anti-HIV activities. On the domestic front, the budget calls funding for Ryan White HIV/AIDS providers — a “high priority” it wants to continue. - VOX
Trump's Vice President Mike Pence is familiar with the programs. From Pence's 2000 website, The Pence Agenda for the 107th Congress: A Guide to Renewing the American Dream:
"Congress should support the reauthorization of the Ryan White Care Act only after completion of an audit to ensure that federal dollars were no longer being given to organizations that celebrate and encourage the
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site