Posts Tagged ‘AAII’

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box 

One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.

High angle view of glasses of red and white wine

I am in Amsterdam and it is late, but deadlines have no time line. Tomorrow more work on the book. It is getting close to the end. Most books are finished when the authors quit in disgust. How many edits can you do? I am close.

I wonder late at night, with maybe a few too many glasses of wine, why I feel like a book is so much more than an e-letter. Really? The last ten years of what I have written are on the archives. Good (ok, sometimes really good) is there. But some are an embarrassment. What was I thinking?

But somehow in my Old World brain, a book is more than a weekly letter. It is somehow more permanent than an “online” letter. Which may be archived forever. The book is “paper” and may be around for a few years. But the online version is here for a long time.

I know that is stupid. Really I do. But what is a 61 year old mind to do? A strange world we live in.

It is really time to hit the send button. More than you know! The conversation tonight has been too deep!

Your trying to figure out the purpose of life analyst,

John Mauldin


Market still deluding itself that it can escape the inevitable dénouement

By Albert Edwards

The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Talk about a schizophrenic market. Just two weeks ago the sky was falling.  As sentiment plummeted the excessively fearful shorts were caught flat footed and an impressive short covering rally ensued. Now, just a few economic reports and a brief rally later small investors are convinced that there are no risks coming down the pike.  The AAII’s bullish sentiment survey showed a remarkable rebound in recent weeks. After hitting 21% just two weeks ago the percentage of bullish investors has surged to 43.9% – the highest reading since April 15th when sentiment hit 48.5% and just days prior to the Q1 market peak.  AAII elaborated on the results:

“Bullish sentiment of individual investors rose 13.1 percentage points to 43.9% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the most bullish individual investors have been on the market outlook six months forward since bullish sentiment reached 48.5% on April 15, 2010. The historical average is 39%.

Over the last two weeks, investor sentiment has swung from bearish sentiment outweighing bullish sentiment by 28.7 percentage points to bullish sentiment outweighing bearish sentiment by 12.3 percentage points.

Bullish investors predominately mention that pessimism seems to have reached an extreme which should favor stocks going forward–the sky is not falling.”

AAII SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

The Investors Intelligence survey also showed a rebound in sentiment as bullishness jumped to 33.3% from last week’s reading of 29.4%.  Although there has been a slight rebound in this data it is not at the same extremes seen in the AAII data.

II1 SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

Source: AAII, II 


Tags: , , , ,




SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Investor sentiment took a turn for the worse this week as most investors became increasingly bearish.  The Investor’s Intelligence survey showed a steep 5% decline in bullishness while the AAII‘s survey showed an even larger decline of 9.7%.   Although both surveys have declined dramatically in the last week neither is at extremes:

II2 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

aaii3 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Charles Rotblut of AAII elaborated on the AAII results:

“Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.7 percentage points in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment registered 30.1%, a six-week low. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.7 percentage points to 27.4%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 12.4 percentage points to 42.5%. This is a four-week high. The historical average is 30%.

Bearish sentiment has been firmly above its historical average for 14 out of the last 15 weeks. Sustained volatility in the market, continued economic uncertainty, a negative year-to-date return for the S&P 500 and low bond yields are all combining to fray individual investors’ nerves. Confidence is likely to remain fragile until investors have a sense that a bottom has been established for stock prices.”

Source: AAII & II 


Tags: , , , , , , ,




BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

After having entered the year in an overwhelmingly bullish fashion, investors have tempered their bullish perspective a bit.  The latest sentiment reading from AAII showed a sharp decline from 49% to 41% bulls.  Many investors have expressed caution due to the high reading coming into the beginning of the year.   This less bullish position is consistent with the recent data on small speculators from the CFTC.

aaii BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

 


Tags: , ,




BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist  

Sentiment hasn’t been this positive about the stock market since just before the 1987 market crash.  The latest readings from Investors Intelligence and AAII show that newsletters and small investors are very bullish in the near-term.  This could be a major warning flag about the potential short-term performance of the equity markets.

The Investors Intelligence poll, which tracks 140 different newsletters, hasn’t been this bullish(?) since 1987.  This has proven to be a superb short-term indicator.  The last extreme was a 54% bearish reading at the October lows last year.  Now, at 15% bears, the bulls feel equity markets have much room to run.

The survey of small investors at AAII is also showing an extreme level of optimism with 49% of investors bullish. It’s interesting to note the high level of put buying on Friday as investors hedged themselves heading into the new year.

AAII BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

VN:F [1.7.8_1020]
 

 


Tags: , , ,




THE PYSCHOLOGICAL ROLLERCOASTER

THE PYSCHOLOGICAL ROLLERCOASTER

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The latest data from the AAII shows just how confused investors are regarding the current market environment and whether the recovery is real.  Just 10 days ago the market was in the middle of a minor 6% decline and it appeared as though earnings were largely priced in and that economic data was beginning to disappoint.  Markets tanked nearly 3% the day before Halloween as comments from Carl Icahn and Wilbur Ross spooked the market.  Same store sales compounded the fears.  Investor sentiment tanked to it lowest level since the March 8th low.  A few earnings reports and economic reports later and the market has rebounded over 7% and psychology  skyrocketed.   Although we’re not quite at a psychological extreme this uncertainty is likely to persist and paying close attention to the psychological extremes will likely continue to reward investors as the economy continues to confound investors.

AAII

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Yuan Extends Losses After China Macro Data Disappoints

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China's yuan extended its early losses, testing down to the fix after headline economic data disappointed across the board.

  • Industrial Production rose just 5.6% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.8% prior)

  • Retail Sales rose just 7.5% YoY (below the +7.9% exp and down from +7.6% prior)

  • Fixed Asset Investments rose just 5.5% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.7% prior)

  • Property Investment rose just 10.5% YTD YoY (down from +1...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing

 

Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...



more from Ilene

The Technical Traders

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: ...



more from Tech. Traders

Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Dow to 38,000 by 2022

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 

Of course who knows? But lets continue. 

The fundamentals behind this may be:

  • A good deal with China.
  • The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
  • The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
  • Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).

Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before O...



more from Chart School

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



more from Kimble C.S.

Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...



more from Lee

Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>