Posts Tagged ‘AAII’

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box 

One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.

High angle view of glasses of red and white wine

I am in Amsterdam and it is late, but deadlines have no time line. Tomorrow more work on the book. It is getting close to the end. Most books are finished when the authors quit in disgust. How many edits can you do? I am close.

I wonder late at night, with maybe a few too many glasses of wine, why I feel like a book is so much more than an e-letter. Really? The last ten years of what I have written are on the archives. Good (ok, sometimes really good) is there. But some are an embarrassment. What was I thinking?

But somehow in my Old World brain, a book is more than a weekly letter. It is somehow more permanent than an “online” letter. Which may be archived forever. The book is “paper” and may be around for a few years. But the online version is here for a long time.

I know that is stupid. Really I do. But what is a 61 year old mind to do? A strange world we live in.

It is really time to hit the send button. More than you know! The conversation tonight has been too deep!

Your trying to figure out the purpose of life analyst,

John Mauldin


Market still deluding itself that it can escape the inevitable dénouement

By Albert Edwards

The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar…
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SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Talk about a schizophrenic market. Just two weeks ago the sky was falling.  As sentiment plummeted the excessively fearful shorts were caught flat footed and an impressive short covering rally ensued. Now, just a few economic reports and a brief rally later small investors are convinced that there are no risks coming down the pike.  The AAII’s bullish sentiment survey showed a remarkable rebound in recent weeks. After hitting 21% just two weeks ago the percentage of bullish investors has surged to 43.9% – the highest reading since April 15th when sentiment hit 48.5% and just days prior to the Q1 market peak.  AAII elaborated on the results:

“Bullish sentiment of individual investors rose 13.1 percentage points to 43.9% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the most bullish individual investors have been on the market outlook six months forward since bullish sentiment reached 48.5% on April 15, 2010. The historical average is 39%.

Over the last two weeks, investor sentiment has swung from bearish sentiment outweighing bullish sentiment by 28.7 percentage points to bullish sentiment outweighing bearish sentiment by 12.3 percentage points.

Bullish investors predominately mention that pessimism seems to have reached an extreme which should favor stocks going forward–the sky is not falling.”

AAII SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

The Investors Intelligence survey also showed a rebound in sentiment as bullishness jumped to 33.3% from last week’s reading of 29.4%.  Although there has been a slight rebound in this data it is not at the same extremes seen in the AAII data.

II1 SMALL INVESTOR BULLISH SENTIMENT SOARS NEAR 2010 HIGH

Source: AAII, II 


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SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Investor sentiment took a turn for the worse this week as most investors became increasingly bearish.  The Investor’s Intelligence survey showed a steep 5% decline in bullishness while the AAII‘s survey showed an even larger decline of 9.7%.   Although both surveys have declined dramatically in the last week neither is at extremes:

II2 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

aaii3 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Charles Rotblut of AAII elaborated on the AAII results:

“Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.7 percentage points in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment registered 30.1%, a six-week low. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.7 percentage points to 27.4%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 12.4 percentage points to 42.5%. This is a four-week high. The historical average is 30%.

Bearish sentiment has been firmly above its historical average for 14 out of the last 15 weeks. Sustained volatility in the market, continued economic uncertainty, a negative year-to-date return for the S&P 500 and low bond yields are all combining to fray individual investors’ nerves. Confidence is likely to remain fragile until investors have a sense that a bottom has been established for stock prices.”

Source: AAII & II 


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BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

After having entered the year in an overwhelmingly bullish fashion, investors have tempered their bullish perspective a bit.  The latest sentiment reading from AAII showed a sharp decline from 49% to 41% bulls.  Many investors have expressed caution due to the high reading coming into the beginning of the year.   This less bullish position is consistent with the recent data on small speculators from the CFTC.

aaii BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

 


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BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist  

Sentiment hasn’t been this positive about the stock market since just before the 1987 market crash.  The latest readings from Investors Intelligence and AAII show that newsletters and small investors are very bullish in the near-term.  This could be a major warning flag about the potential short-term performance of the equity markets.

The Investors Intelligence poll, which tracks 140 different newsletters, hasn’t been this bullish(?) since 1987.  This has proven to be a superb short-term indicator.  The last extreme was a 54% bearish reading at the October lows last year.  Now, at 15% bears, the bulls feel equity markets have much room to run.

The survey of small investors at AAII is also showing an extreme level of optimism with 49% of investors bullish. It’s interesting to note the high level of put buying on Friday as investors hedged themselves heading into the new year.

AAII BULLISH SENTIMENT WAVES WARNING FLAGS

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THE PYSCHOLOGICAL ROLLERCOASTER

THE PYSCHOLOGICAL ROLLERCOASTER

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The latest data from the AAII shows just how confused investors are regarding the current market environment and whether the recovery is real.  Just 10 days ago the market was in the middle of a minor 6% decline and it appeared as though earnings were largely priced in and that economic data was beginning to disappoint.  Markets tanked nearly 3% the day before Halloween as comments from Carl Icahn and Wilbur Ross spooked the market.  Same store sales compounded the fears.  Investor sentiment tanked to it lowest level since the March 8th low.  A few earnings reports and economic reports later and the market has rebounded over 7% and psychology  skyrocketed.   Although we’re not quite at a psychological extreme this uncertainty is likely to persist and paying close attention to the psychological extremes will likely continue to reward investors as the economy continues to confound investors.

AAII

 


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Zero Hedge

Futures Jump, Gold Soars As Dollar Destruction Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Everyone is piling into everything.

That's probably the best way to describe the market frenzy this week which has seen an all time high in the Nasdaq and gold, an all time low 10Y yields, and an S&P that is just shy of its all time highs.

Sure enough, on Wednesday, gold jumped to a new record high pushing further past $2,000...

... as the dollar tumbled on U.S. Treasury yields falling to fresh all time lows, and expectations of mo...



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Phil's Favorites

Dawg on the Wall

 

Dawg on the Wall

Courtesy of Scott Galloway at No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway 

(originally pu...



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ValueWalk

2020: The Total Collapse Of American Society

By G.R. Oyper. Originally published at ValueWalk.

To lend some context to what I am about to say in this piece, I would like to begin with a brief discussion of the world, specifically America, as we know it currently in August of 2020. We have been ‘flattening the curve’ of Coronavirus (COVID-19) through the 15 Days to Slow the Spread initiative for exactly 140 days as of today, and it will be 141 days tomorrow.

Deaths where I live were statistically insignificant for the last several weeks, and across the U.S. broadly, deaths are down dramatically and hospitals are no longer at risk of being overwhelmed. They haven’t been at risk for some time now.

To put this even more pla...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


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The Technical Traders

THE MARKETS POST COVID AND DEBT MONETIZATION

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris joins Boom Bust host Sara Montes de Oca and Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies to talk FAANG, corporate earnings, the Feds, the growing US debt, and pandemic trading.  How will the markets react given permanent changes in how people work and live their lives? What will happen given the Feds strategy of debt monetization?

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

 

There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars — focus on trucks and buses instead

Garbage trucks, buses and the van that delivers your Amazon purchases are all prime candidates for electrification. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Cameron Roberts, Carleton University

We need to change our transportation system, and we need to do it quickly.

Road transportation is a major consumer of fossil fuels, contributing 16 per cent of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, which warm up the Earth’s atmosphere and cause changes to the climate. It also ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's How To Buy The Top Stocks In The Hottest Sectors During The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech has been the place to be during the Covid-19 crisis. Investors Business Daily recently highlighted how one can own the strongest of the strong by just owning one ETF (See article here).

This chart looks at the Dorsey Wright Focus Five index ETF (FV), which reflects that it is attempting a bullish breakout while creating higher lows over the past 6-years.

The $2.1 billion fund tracks the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, which provides access to five First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Dorsey Wright & Associates selects the funds based on relative price momentum, then weights the compone...



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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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