Posts Tagged ‘Allan Meltzer’

Weakest employment market since the Great Depression

Weakest employment market since the Great Depression

Great Depression comparisonCourtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Recently Allan Meltzer, a former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve wrote a widely noted and provocative article in the Wall Street Journal called “What Happened to the ‘Depression?’” He called for an end to deficit-inducing stimulus because the cries of Depression from noted mainstream economists has been proven false.  His thesis is that these economists, most notably Paul Krugman and IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, are hyping the downturn to support a specific policy agenda with which he vehemently disagrees.

Conflating issues for ideological purposes

While his opinion piece deserves discussion, I find his argument disingenuous as he too is promoting a specific policy agenda.  The crux of the matter is three-fold:

  1. How severe is this downturn and financial crisis?
  2. How severe would it have been had specific policy measures not been taken?
  3. Irrespective of the severity of the downturn, were these the right steps to have followed?

I delineate the argument as such because Meltzer, I believe purposely and misleadingly, conflates these issues for political purposes.  His goal is to present a narrative in which stimulus, especially deficit-inducing stimulus is seen as wasteful and misguided.  This may be the case (although I do believe certain types of stimulus are purposeful).  I don’t intend to examine that issue because it is as much political and ideological as it is economic.  It distracts from the real question: how severe could this downturn have been?

Nowhere near the Depression

When it comes to this core question, I agree wholeheartedly with Meltzer. This is not the Great Depression II, nor will it be, nor was it likely to have been.  I wrote a fairly personal post on this very point at the height of the panic last year called “Worse than the Great Depression.”  My point was that America, the world really, is much richer than it was in 1929.  The social safety net is much more robust. And policy makers are more knowledgeable than they were eight years ago. Comparisons to the Great Depression are misplaced.

But, Alan Meltzer is incorrect when he compares this downturn to 1973-75.  This downturn is clearly more severe. The financial system has been hit very hard with a number of prominent institutions either dying (Lehman, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, Merrill…
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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID - new study

 

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID – new study

VGstockstudio/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Trish Greenhalgh, University of Oxford; Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder; Shelly Miller, University of Col...



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Zero Hedge

Will The Market Flip Green This Week? Here Are The 15 Things On Goldman's Checklist

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Goldman's flow trader Scott Rubner called the year-end meltup and Santa Rally with perfect accuracy, although his call for a continuation of the meltup into January and the new year has so far proven painfully wrong. And with sentiment imploding over the past three weeks, turning from euphoric to cataclysmic in just a matter of days, it is hardly surpris...



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ValueWalk

These Are the Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Mutual Funds typically invest in stocks and fixed-income securities. However, there are funds that, along with investing in such securities, may also invest in derivatives contracts such as options and futures. Such types of investing allow funds to hedge their risk, and for investors, it helps them to diversify their portfolios. Let’s take a look at the ten best performing options trading funds.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

We have referred to the last one-year return numbers (from ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Weakness Has Bears Circling Tech Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One theme over the past several months has been tech stock’s under-performance. And 2022 seems to be amplifying this theme as we kick off the new year.

Today’s chart focus is on the ratio of the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 Index. We have shared this ratio a few times recently as the price pattern has become a concern.

As you can see in the chart, there’s a potential that the ratio double topped last year at the 2000 highs. And weakness this month has it attempting to break dual support at...



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Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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