Bullish Bets On TD Ameritrade Generating Big Paper Profits

by Option Review - March 8th, 2013 2:27 pm

Today’s tickers: AMTD, TPX & DKS

AMTD - TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. – Large bullish bets in August expiry options on online broker, TD Ameritrade, are trading for a third consecutive week, with shares in the name up 11% since the beginning of March to stand at $20.72 as of midday in New York on Friday. Big prints in Aug. $23 strike calls attracted some attention on February 28th, after roughly 40,000 of those contracts were purchased for a premium of $0.25 apiece. The following week on March 5th, another 40,000 contracts changed hands at the Aug. $23 strike at a premium of $0.35 each. This morning, it looks like another 20,000 of the Aug. $23 strike call options were purchased at a premium of $0.65 apiece. The contracts purchased at the end of February have more than doubled in value and the calls picked up last week have appreciated substantially as of the time of this writing. Continued gains in the price of the underlying ahead of August expiration may generate additional paper profits on these positions. Upside calls purchased on AMTD this morning make money at August expiration as long as shares in the online broker surge 14% to exceed the breakeven price of $23.65.

TPX - Tempur-Pedic International, Inc. – Shares in premium mattress maker, Tempur-Pedic, jumped 9.0% to $46.44 on Friday morning after the Federal Trade Commission cleared the company’s planned acquisition of Sealy Corp. in a transaction valued at approximately $1.3 billion. The sharp move in the price of the underlying shares sparked heavy trading traffic in TPX options at the start of the session; overall volume is above 13,000 contracts as of 11:00 a.m. ET, versus the stock’s average daily volume of around 11,750 contracts. One strategist appears to be taking a bearish stance on the stock through April expiration, with shares in TPX having increased 45% year-to-date and more than 120% since June of 2012. It looks like the trader initiated a ratio put spread, buying 300 puts at the April…

Tags: AMTD, DKS, TPX

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Jarden Corp. Calls Eye Further Upside As Stock Hits Fresh Record Highs

by Option Review - February 28th, 2013 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: JAH, AMTD & YHOO

JAH - Jarden Corp. – Shares in consumer products company, Jarden Corp., are off their highest level of the session, up 2.75% at $62.96 just before midday in New York. The stock had rallied nearly 6.0% this morning to a new all-time high of $64.87 after the company announced an increase in its authorized share repurchase program to $500 million. Options traders positioning for shares in Jarden to extend gains snapped up calls across several expiries this morning. Near-term bullish bets are accumulating at the Mar. $65 strike price, where upwards of 2,300 contracts changed hands against open interest of 1,161 lots. Traders appear to have purchased most of these contracts at an average premium of $0.62 apiece, and may profit at expiration in two weeks should Jarden’s shares rise 4% over the current price of $62.96 to top the average breakeven point at $65.62. Traders looked out the April $70 strike call options expiring in April and July as well; snapping up around 1,200 of the April $70 strike calls for an average premium of $0.34 each, and picking up 410 lots at the July $70 strike at a premium of $1.45 per contract. Options players long the $70 calls expiring in April and July stand ready to profit should JAH shares surge 11.7% and 13.5% to top average breakeven points at $70.34 and $71.45, respectively, by expiration.

AMTD - TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. – The online broker popped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner early in the trading session on Thursday after a large block of call options changed hands in the August expiry. Shares in TD Ameritrade are down 0.20% at $19.08 as of 12:55 p.m. ET. Volume in the Aug. $23 strike calls is greater than 41,000 contracts this afternoon, versus open interest of just 483 contracts. The calls appear to have been purchased this morning at a premium of $0.25 each, a sizable bullish bet that shares in Ameritrade may soar more than 20% by August expiration. The transaction makes money at expiration if shares in AMTD settle above the effective breakeven price of $23.25.

YHOO - Yahoo! Inc. – Weekly call options on Yahoo are looking for shares in the name to extend gains during the next six trading sessions. The stock is up 1.65% at a new 52-week high of $21.51 this afternoon, having rallied more than 7.0%…

Tags: AMTD, JAH, YHOO

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Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?

by phil - January 17th, 2012 7:54 am

Isn't this exciting!

The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend.  That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago!  Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?  

The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.

On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.  

This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least.  Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts.  Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.  

To some extent, hedge funds are also speculators and usually you would assume their bets are covered but that's kind of hard to see with a 7:1 long/short ratio.  Keep in mind that Commercial Traders are institutions with business reasons to hedge – they are not going to be flip-flopping their positions so they will NOT be buying Dollars just because they get cheaper.  So, if it all hits the fan and the Funds shift to short – we could get quite a tidal-wave of Dollar selling.

That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future.   This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.  

As you…

Tags: AMTD, BAC, C, CHKP, ED, EDU, FCS, FFIV, FRC, FRX, FXE, GE, GLD, GS, KMP, MMR, MTB, PBCT, PGR, PNFP, SCHW, SCO, SLB, STI, SWKS, TLT, UNH, USO, UUP, WFC

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Bears Snap Up TD Ameritrade Put Options

by Option Review - June 10th, 2011 4:12 pm

Today’s tickers: AMTD, XRT, BTU & NG

AMTD - TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. – Put options on TD Ameritrade are popular on the final trading session of the week, with shares in the financial services company trading 0.85% lower on the day at $18.76. Investors may be scooping up puts on the largest U.S. online trading firm following comments from the company’s chief executive regarding concerns that the slower pace of client trading activity in the context of a more uncertain economic climate may endure through the summer months. In-the-money put options in the August contract, which expire after TD Ameritrade reports third-quarter earnings on July 19, are drawing the most trading traffic today. It looks like investors purchased around 2,175 puts at the August $21 strike for an average premium of $2.77 each. Bears traded more than 3,400 puts at the lower August $20 strike on previously existing open interest of just 381 contracts. Roughly 3,000 of the lower-strike puts were picked up for an average premium of $1.82 a-pop. Investors long the August $20 strike puts make money in the event that AMTD’s shares fall another 3.1% to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $18.18 by expiration day in August. Greater demand for TD Ameritrade put options helped raise the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility 12.4% to 31.77% as of 1:00pm in New York.

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – A large ratio put spread initiated on the retail ETF suggests one big options strategist is positioning for substantial, albeit limited, bearish movement in the price of the underlying fund through July expiration. Shares in the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to mimic the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, dropped 2.4% to an intraday low of $49.15 today. The trader…

Tags: AMTD, BTU, NG, XRT

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Testy Tuesday – Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?

by phil - January 19th, 2010 8:08 am

"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship's smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can't hear what you're saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb." – Pink Floyd
 

I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren't irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience… 

To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one's surroundings, and inability to prioritize – That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn't it?  Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded – far worse than had been experienced in previous wars.  Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage. 

Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets.  Here's a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).  

As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks,   "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009.  Light volume markets are very difficult to…

Tags: ADTRN, AMTD, BAC, C, COH, CREE, CSX, EAT, EBAY, EDU, FAST, FFIV, FHN, FRX, FULT, HBHC, HCBK, IBM, IIVI, KMP, LOGI, MMR, MS, MTB, NTRS, OHB, PETS, PGR, PH, PNFP, RJF, SBUX, SLM, STT, STX, USB, WFC, WIT, XLNX

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Weatherford Option Bulls Buck Energy Trend

by Option Review - July 6th, 2009 4:07 pm

Today’s tickers: WFT, XLE, MS, AET, IYR, SCHW, UNG, & AMTD

WFT – The slight 1.5% decline in shares to $18.02 today has not deterred some option traders from making bullish plays on the oil and equipment services firm. The August 17.5 strike price had 9,200 puts sold short for an average premium of 1.50 apiece. The investor(s) who sold the puts will retain the full premium as long as shares remain higher than $17.50 by expiration next month. Traders appear to expect shares of WFT to remain high enough such that the puts remain out-of-the-money by expiration. However, such individuals must be prepared to have shares of the underlying put to them at an effective price of $16.00 in the event that the puts land in-the-money and are exercised. Additional bullishness on the stock appeared in the November contract where it looks as though one trader initiated a covered call strategy. The sale of 1,600 calls at the November 23 strike price yielded a premium of 95 cents each. Perhaps the investor purchased shares at an effective price of $17.07 and simultaneously sold the call options to establish a potential exit strategy. If the November 23 calls land in-the-money by expiration the investor will have the shares called away from him. At that point he will have attained profits of about 35% on the accretion in market value of WFT. – Weatherford International Limited

XLE – A bullish reversal in the energy ETF caught our eye amid a more than 2% decline in the price of the fund to $45.20 today. It appears that one investor chose to sell 1,700 puts at the December 42 strike price for a rich premium of 3.25 apiece. The put options were then spread against the purchase of 1,700 calls at the December 53 strike price for 1.52 each. The net credit enjoyed on the reversal strategy amounts to 1.73. The trader can augment his gains if the price of the XLE rises approximately 17% through the exercise price of $53.00 by expiration at the conclusion of 2009. Otherwise, he will retain the full credit received today as long as the puts options at the December 42 strike price remain out-of-the-money by expiration. – Energy Select Sector SPDR

MS – The global financial services firm has experienced a 1.5% decline in shares to stand at $26.50 today. Investors wary of…

Tags: AET, AMTD, IYR, MS, SCHW, UNG, WFT, XLE

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NRG Takeover Spills Into Curious Option Combo

by Option Review - June 25th, 2009 5:25 pm

Today’s tickers: EXC, NRG, PALM, ANF, CAL, AMTD & PAYX

EXC – The company has been increasingly less successful in trying to persuade shareholders at NRG – NRG Energy– to tender their shares to the company in what has become an ugly battle. Shares in both companies are on the rise today at $51.08 (Exelon) and $23.70 (NRG). Two sizeable footprints were left for analysts to explore in options trading. Here’s what we think is happening. Perhaps the easier half of the trade is a nearby July 22.50/17.50 put spread on shares of NRG. An investor bought 50,000 higher strike puts at 72 cents and sold 25,000 puts at the 17.50 for a nickel per contract. The investor likely expects that management at NRG will be successful in convincing its investors that the Exelon deal isn’t a good fit. The CEO mailed his thoughts urging investors to remain loyal to his leadership. In the event that the takeover fades, as appears the case, this investor might benefit from some of the hot money hopping out of the stock. Exelon options were a little more convoluted. An investor appears to have bought 50,000 July calls at the 55 strike at 39 cents and taking a sizeable credit on the sale of the same amount of calls expiring in August at the 50 strike. He’s possibly thinking that the near-term prospects for the company in the event of a botched deal would buoy the shares. Thereafter some of the optimism might fade. – Exelon Corp.

PALM – Shares of the Pre-maker, which launched earlier in June, are stable at $13.96 ahead of earnings data after the closing bell on Thursday. The fact that sales of the Pre won’t materially impact the bottom-line earnings numbers means we may have to wait longer for further developments from the company. However, investors have been in a buying tizzy for stock in the company all year and have driven shares from $1.14 to $15.25 recently. The options market, however, has been forced to maintain a careful eye on developments given the depths to which the shares plummeted earlier this year and still attributes a relatively high reading of implied volatility of 90% on options on the stock. That makes hedging a little more expensive that it ought and heading into earnings today, one investor appears to have tried to do so by implementing a put…

Tags: AMTD, ANF, CAL, EXC, NRG, PALM, PAYX

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HP bulls charge at a $50 upside target

by Option Review - April 9th, 2009 4:56 pm

Today’s tickers: HPQ, VAR, DOW, AMTD, XLF, WFC & BAC

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company – The global technology company has enjoyed a more than 4% rally to $34.41 on broader market gains. HPQ edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after bullish option traders played the field. Optimism in options-land occurred amid news that HPQ was assigned an “overweight” rating by an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP as well as a heightened target price of $44.00 per share. The first sign of optimism we noticed was the sale of 2,200 puts at the May 32.5 strike price for a premium of 1.00 apiece. But, the May transaction was merely small potatoes compared to what we observed in the January 2010 contract. At the January 35 strike, an appetizer of 4,500 calls was bought for 5.30 apiece ahead of the main course, a large bull call spread. The January 40 strike price saw the purchase of 20,000 call options for a premium of 3.10 each and spread against the sale of 20,000 calls at the January 50 strike for a premium of 87 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 2.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 7.77 to the trader if shares can shoot up to $50.00 by expiration next year. HPQ’s shares have not traded above $50.00 since December 31, 2007. In order for this investor to breakeven at $42.23 where he would begin to amass profits on the spread, shares would need to rally by 23% from the current price.

VAR Varian Medical Systems, Inc. – The designer and manufacturer of advanced equipment and software utilized for the treatment of cancer has experienced a 6% rally to $33.28 amid supposed takeover chatter reported by some news sources today. Option volume of nearly 21,000 contracts has superseded existing open interest on the stock of just 19,785, indicating that there is certainly fresh interest a-brewing. Investors were seen picking up more than 4,600 call options at the April 35 strike price for an average premium of 47 cents apiece. Meanwhile, traders looked as high up as the May 40 strike price where some 2,600 call options were scooped up for about 68 cents per contract. Option implied volatility which started the day at around 49% has since gone through the roof and current stands at 65% for the day.

DOW The Dow Chemical Company…

Tags: AMTD, BAC, DOW, HPQ, VAR, WFC, XLF

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