A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up
by Chart School - August 30th, 2009 9:40 pm
A Massive Chart Dump – P2 Analysis Wrap-Up
Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis
…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet
So like I said on Friday, I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. I just don’t think it is done. But I do think it is very close to being done, next week looks very likely for the top.
But the whole point of this post is to look at a whole host of indices, sectors, asset classes, and sentiment indicators to show that there are some very substantial divergences taking place. Some of the "leader indices" show that they have already potentially topped (are not making higher highs with the broader markets). The Dollar and the VIX may have already bottomed. Volume is drying up (or at least substantially declining) in most of the indicies. In short a lot of the signs that we expect to see with Primary Wave 2 have occurred, and things are more or less "on track" for a large trend change in equities.
The other reason for this massive update this weekend is that our first born child is due any day now, and my blogging and chart updates will drop off dramatically next month. binve’s life is about to get a lot more interesting.
This post contains a lot of charts that I show often, but every chart is completely updated with new annotations and analysis. I believe it is a useful post and tells the picture of the markets from a macro view. Enjoy!
The Primary Wave 2 Checklist
There are several signals that we should see that help to let us know we are at the end of Primary Wave 2. There are some characteristics that Elliott (and then Frost and Prechter later) put forth that would describe some of the technical, fundamental and sentiment aspects of Wave 2. Here are some of those (modified to be bullish, as this Wave 2 is bullish):
From EWP: “Second Waves often retrace so much of Wave one that most of the losses endured are gained back by the time it ends. At this point investors are thoroughly convinced that the bull market is here to stay. Second waves typically end on very low volume…
RANDOM THOUGHTS BY TPC
by ilene - August 25th, 2009 5:53 pm
RANDOM THOUGHTS BY TPC
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
- China was down again last night – how long can the divergence between China and U.S. stock continue before one makes a huge move either up or down?
- The S&P is well off its intra-day highs. Are we beginning to see the first signs of selling the news?
- Volume is better today and breadth is 2:1 – that’s gotta make the bulls feel pretty good.
- Dr. Copper is getting his head handed to him today. (-2.5%)
- Oil is getting his head and his feet handed to him. (-3.5%)
- I’m not the only person who doesn’t believe in the most recent rally.
- Reader Henry has the market cheat sheet:
* weak data = Fed ease, stocks rally
* consensus data = lower volatility, stocks rally
* strong data = economy strengthening, stocks rally
* bank loses $4bln = bad news out of the way, stocks rally
* oil spikes = great for energy companies, stocks rally
* oil drops = great for the consumer, stocks rally
* dollar plunges = great for multinationals, stocks rally
* dollar spikes = lowers inflation, stocks rally
* inflation spikes = will inflate all assets, stocks rally
* inflation drops = improves earnings quality, stocks rally
- Reader Dean points out Dr. Bernanke’s many great successes: