Posts Tagged ‘Bailouts Are Shrinking’

More signs of liquidity withdrawal, now from the U.S. Treasury

More signs of liquidity withdrawal, now from the U.S. Treasury

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Yesterday I mentioned the announcement by the FDIC to end its debt guarantee program and opined that this was the first sign of tightening/liquidity withdrawal by the U.S. government.  Today the evidence is mounting that this is indeed an orchestrated move toward policy normalization.

The FT spoke to treasury officials who confirmed this interpretation:

A senior Treasury official said “we are pivoting and starting to pull back on certain programmes.” The administration will allow the money market mutual fund guarantee programme to expire as scheduled on September 18, and is backing a review by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that is likely to see funding guarantees for bank debt either ended or restricted to emergency cases on penal terms.

How the Federal Reserve acts is the key missing component here, both in terms of returning repoed assets to the banks which own them and in terms of eventual interest rate decisions. My guess at this point is that the Fed will look to reduce its balance sheet well before it looks to increase interest rates.

In addition, the Fed had provided up to $650 billion in swap lines to other central banks at the height of the financial crisis.  Those swap lines are now down to $70 billion (source: Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman). This reduction in a liquidity-induced appetite for U.S. dollars may be a major reason the Dollar is falling right now even against the Pound and the Swiss Franc where the central banks are engaging in quantitative easing.

Update 1530ET: See also Bailouts Are Shrinking, Geithner Says from DealBook:

One of President Obama’s top economic strategists said on Thursday that the government was now starting to shrink many parts of its gigantic financial bailout following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, The New York Times’s Edmund L. Andrews reports.

“We must begin winding down some of the extraordinary support we put in place for the financial system,” said the Treasury Secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, in written testimony prepared for the Congressional Oversight Panel on the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue program. (Go to a Webcast of Thursday’s hearing.)


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Could Be Creating Large Reversal Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver prices from 30-years ago be influencing price action this month? Joe Friday suggests it is possible.

This chart looks at Silver Futures on a monthly basis over the past 40-years. Fibonacci levels were applied to the 1980 highs ($50) and 1991 lows ($.350) in Silver.

The 50% retracement levels of the 1980 high/1991 low came into play as support for a few months at each (1). Once this support broke, Silver fell another 50%.

The impressive rally over the past 8-weeks has Silver testing the 50% retracement level as potential...



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Phil's Favorites

Movie theaters are on life support - how will the film industry adapt?

 

Movie theaters are on life support – how will the film industry adapt?

A movie theater in Brea, Calif., has shuttered its doors due to the coronavirus pandemic. AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

Courtesy of Matthew Jordan, Pennsylvania State University

Since the start of the pandemic, the film industry has been in free fall.

As deaths have continued to climb, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Wearable fitness devices deliver early warning of possible COVID-19 infection

 

Wearable fitness devices deliver early warning of possible COVID-19 infection

Fitness information from wearable devices can reveal when the body is fighting an infection. Nico De Pasquale Photography/Stone via Getty Images

Courtesy of Albert H. Titus, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

The difficulty many people have getting tested for SARS-CoV-2 and delays in receiving test results make early warning of possible COVID-19 infections all the more important, and ...



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Zero Hedge

Fake ID Seizures, Mostly From China, On the Rise

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Petr Svab via the Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been seizing an increasing number of fake IDs, including driver’s licenses, in recent years. Most come from China and are good enough to fool an average person, an agency official said.

...

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ValueWalk

Value Does Not Have To Mean Cheap: ANGI A Good Example

By Jonathan Boyar. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It’s a scenario value investors dream about: a growing company whose shares are selling at a statistically cheap price. Of course, these types of stocks can be hard to find—and the search for them may lead you straight into a value trap. But just as a stock selling for a low valuation doesn’t always mean a bargain, a richly valued stock doesn’t always mean value investors ought to automatically look elsewhere. The Boyar Value Group recently identified one high multiple stock that may be worth paying up for. Keep reading to find out more.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, con...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image i...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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