Posts Tagged ‘bank lending standards’

Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade

Mish: "What I will suggest is the stock market is 50% overvalued at this point." 

Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are digging into the July 2009 Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

The survey shows that bank lending standards continue to tighten at varying rates by loan category.

Calculated Risk discussed the survey in Lending Standards Tighten, Loan Demand Weakens. Here is a chart from the article. The annotations in pink and purple and the thoughts below are mine.

click on chart for sharper image

Interestingly, the last two recessions began just as investment in non-residential structures peaked. The stock market peaked at the same time.

Note that investment continued to decline long after the last recession was over. Also note when the stock market bottomed following the last recession.

Are we in for a repeat? In regards to investment, odds are high we are in for a repeat (if not something much worse). The stock market? You tell me. What I will suggest is the stock market is 50% overvalued at this point.

That valuation can be corrected in one of three ways:

1) Time – Earnings improve over 5 years with the stock market going nowhere
2) Price – The bottom is not in and a significant pullback, perhaps even another crash is in store
3) Some combination of time and price

I vote for door number 3, but any scenario is possible.

From the loan survey:

9. Apart from normal seasonal variation, how has demand for commercial real estate loans changed over the past three months?

CRE Demand Still Collapsing

Demand for commercial real estate loans is still collapsing. Massive overcapacity and weak consumer demand are the two key reasons.

The implications are severe.

Commercial Real estate was a massive driver for jobs in the post-2000 recession. Think of all the retail stores that were built: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Walgreen (WAG), Nordstrom (JWN), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), etc.

Think of the grocery store buildout that followed the buildout of residential subdivisions: Safeway (SWY), Kroher (KR), Whole Foods (WFMI), and Osco-Jewel & SuperValue (SVU).

Now think of all the merchandise it took to fill those stores and the trucking (and trucking jobs) involved to keep stores stocked for consumers whose demand was thought to…
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Nailed It

 

Nailed It

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William Bernstein is one of the people I admire most in this industry. He is a true renaissance man, having been a neurologist, financial theorist, money manager, and non-fiction author. If you’ve never read any of his books, I cannot recommend them highly enough. You can check them out here.

Bernstein was on Master’s in Business this weekend with Barry and during their conversation about money, he just absolutely nailed: ...



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Zero Hedge

Zombie Science: Researchers Kept The Brains Of Decapitated Pigs Alive For 36 Hours

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Dagny Taggart via The Organic Prepper blog,

Scientists seem to be crossing a lot of boundaries as of late, which begs the question: Just because they can do something, does it mean they should?

Advances in brain-related technology are reaching dystopian levels. ...



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Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

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Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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