Posts Tagged ‘bear markets’

The “Real” Mega-Bears

The "Real" Mega-Bears 

Courtesy of Doug Short 

Click to ViewIt’s time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

For those who prefer the overlay aligned with the 2007 S&P 500 peak, here is the nominal Mega-Bear Quartet charts and commentary.

Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today’s market in relation to historic market cycles.  


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David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households. 


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The Yo-Yo Market and You

WSJ: The Yo-Yo Market and You

Courtesy of Andy Kessler 

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Bull markets, it is said, climb a wall of worry. Smart investors buy in early when worries about profits or inflation or wars scare away the faint of heart. Latecomers then bid up stocks as each worry becomes unfounded, until there is nothing left to worry about. Once there is only good news, the market peaks as there is no one left to buy.Yo-yo

Bear markets, on the other hand, fall into what I like to call the pit of doom. Forget about worries—actual bad stuff happens, until nothing bad is left to happen and the market bottoms as there is no one left to sell.  

From early May through last week, the market dropped 1500 points into the pit, on the backs of gushing BP oil, riots in Europe, a 30% drop in pending home sales and the news that maybe your next door neighbor is a Russian spy. But now we’ve seen 680 Dow points added over seven straight up days before a slight decline yesterday. What the heck is going on?

Click here for the rest of the article. 


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Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Market Bears – what sub-species are you? "Outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks"--if that rings true, you’re a David RosenBear. Now you know. – Ilene

Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Bear Field Guide

(read the below in an exaggerated Australian accent, like that guy who took bubble baths with great white sharks and electric eels but for some strange reason died in a freak animal incident.)

Krikey!  This landscape is litrelly filled with Market Bears!  But wait just a tick – there appear to be many different types of bears running about…all with different attributes and markings to help us tell them apart.

Let’s have a peak through the binoculars and see what we’ve got:

The Born-Again Bear (Ursus Scottradeum) - this creature was horribly wounded during two prior market crashes while remaining long and margined to the hilt.  Has since sold entire portfolio at the bottom, subscribed to RGE Monitor and delights in telling the members of his old investment club what morons they are.  Can be found roaring "bwahaha" at other investors on the Yahoo Finance message boards.

The Perma-Bear (Ursus Abelsonious) – the very definition of "creature of habit", Perma-Bears are right 2% of the time but tedious and pedantic 100% of the time.  By never conceding the fact that anything could even possibly be a positive, they render themselves irrelevant, even during actual bear markets.  Many, however, are brilliant and lovable, despite their unwillingness to change or concede.

The Conspiratorial Bear (Ursus Tinfoilicon) – A highly adaptive sub-species of the Perma-Bear.  These animals are known for their over-perspicacity and have foreseen 11 of the last 3 market corrections due to a light social calendar and a fondness for Data-mining & Dragons.  They are, however, always the most interesting bears to behold in the forest and serve the important role of keeping the other woodland creatures on their toes and alert.

The David RosenBear (Ursus Aurum Minotur) – a species that is outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks.  He will justify his "playing" of precious metals with myriad warnings of inflation, deflation, mega-flation, Gaga-flation etc, but in reality, he is banking on the greater…
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Passive Products and Active Users

 

Passive Products and Active Users

Courtesy of 

The 20 largest ETFs have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion.

A recent paper from ...



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Zero Hedge

In The Fed, We Trust?!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Part one of this article can be found HERE.

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to fill an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board. She was recently quoted by the Washington Post as follows:

“(I) would lower rates as fast, as efficiently, and as expeditiously...



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The Technical Traders

Market Trend Change Triggered Today

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

High Times Going To Return For Pot Stocks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

High times for pot stocks do not come to mind when looking at this 6-pack!

On average, these stocks have declined nearly 50% since recent highs.

Are pot stocks about to experience “High Times” again?

The large declines since recent highs has each of these stocks testing support at each (1).

If the pot stocks are to move higher, these key support lines need to hold.

Out of these six stocks, ABBV is reflecting relative strength to the others, as it has been moving higher off support the past 60-days.

...

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Insider Scoop

44 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Viveve Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: VIVE) shares climbed 139.1% to $9.08 after surging 16.21% on Tuesday.
  • Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHN) shares climbed 69.2% to $6.18 after Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) reported the purchase of Achillion Pharmaceuticals in a $930 million deal.
  • Ideal Power Inc. (NASDAQ: IPWR) surged 55.6% to $3.50....


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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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