Posts Tagged ‘Beijing’

Rosenberg On The Visible Hand Of Central Planning

Rosenberg On The Visible Hand Of Central Planning

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

 

 I’m this many, how many are you?

So you thought communist states go down without a fight? Wrong: here is Rosenberg who explains why both China and the US are now actively involved in the business of propping up anything and everything. And totally off topic, Rosie confirms that the liquidity trends in the mutual fund industry continue to deteriorate: "As for liquidity ratios, equity funds portfolio manages have theirs at an all-time low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are really not very many shorts to be covered – since the market peaked in April, short interest is 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it was 6%) and there’s not a whole lot of underlying fund-flow support for the stock market here." In other words, throw in a few more market down days, a few more weeks of redemptions (and at 16 weeks in a row, there is no reason why this should change), and the liquidation theme will promptly be added to the new normal.

 

THE VISIBLE HAND

The two largest economies in the world are being sustained by the long arm of the law. At least in China it’s to be expected that a communist country would be fuelled by command central, but in this miracle story, below the surface it is becoming abundantly clear that Beijing is becoming increasingly involved. The front page article of the Monday NYT uncovered how the economy is delivering its red-hot growth rates: “New data from the World Bank show that the proportion of industrial production by companies controlled by the Chinese state edged up last year … investment by state-controlled companies skyrocketed, driven by hundreds of billions of government spending and state bank lending.” No wonder the Chinese economy and stock market have diverged.

Is it really much different in the U.S.A. today with every 1 in 6 Americans now receiving some form of government assistance? More than 50 million Americans, from food stamps, to Medicaid, to extended jobless benefits, are on one or more taxpayer-supported programs. This likely explains why this depression does not have that 1930s feel of despair to it. But a depression it is.

In a depression, radical


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Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Collective effort, Ugly 2010 by Rom at Bondsquawk, with introduction by Pragcap:

We’ve often noted the fact that China’s equity market has served as a very reliable leading indicator over the last few years.  They led the way with a dramatic market crash that started in 2007 and they bottomed several months in advance of the 2009 bottom in the S&P.  We recently highlighted the bearish action in Chinese stocks while U.S. investors continued to pile into the S&P (one of three primary reasons we built short positions for the first time in 2 years prior to the recent stock collapse).  Ultimately the market faltered and China’s equity market is once again looking prescient. China is displaying classic post-bubble market action.  Our friends at Bondsquawk ask the important question that should be on everyone’s mind:

"Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?"

[BEWARE THE BIG RED LEADING INDICATOR, The Pragmatic Capitalist]

Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Courtesy of Rom at Bondsquawk

China’s Shanghai Composite Index has led the rally in the global markets after sinking in late October 2008, almost 5 month ahead of the lows seen in the US markets. However, the rally has stalled as China’s equity markets have declined by 20.9 percent in 2010. Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?

China’s Shanghai Composite Index 2-Year Historical Chart

The New York Times reported the following:

After a spectacular rise last year, China’s stock market has plummeted on growing concerns about Europe’s debt crisis and expectations that Beijing is about to take strong action to slow the nation’s booming economy and prevent it from overheating, analysts say.

Investors are worried that Chinese exports to Europe will slow in the coming months and that government efforts to tame this country’s economy by tightening credit will hamper a wide array of industries, including the nation’s fast-growing real estate market.

Read the Full Article>>


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Beijing Real Estate Association Admits There’s A ‘Big Bubble’…

Beijing Real Estate Association Admits There’s A ‘Big Bubble’, Supports New Measure To Ban Home Buying

beijing, clusterstock photo Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock 

Beijing on Friday announced a ban on families buying more than one home, in addition to other measures aimed at cooling the city’s hot property market.

China Daily:

As of Friday, "one family can only buy one new apartment in the city for the time being," the municipal government said in a statement. The government also ordered the implementation of central government policies that ban mortgages for purchases of a third or third-plus home.

It also instigated a central government ban on mortgages to non-local residents who cannot provide more than one year of tax returns or proof of social security payments in Beijing. The statement called for "resolutely curbing unreasonable housing demand." It ordered the implementation of measures earlier unveiled by the State Council on second-home purchases.

One of these days, property market tightening measures are going to hit the market hard. It’s fat chance that these regulatory efforts can perfectly balance out the market so that prices simply stop rising and all is calm.

The latest measures, more harsh than those released by the State Council, are aimed clearly at curbing speculation and promoting healthy and stable development of the property sector, Chen Zhi, deputy secretary-general of Beijing Real Estate Association, told Xinhua.

Speculation is the main reason behind high home prices in Beijing, Chen said.

"There exists a rather big bubble in the city’s real estate market. Housing has become more unaffordable for many," he added.

So even the Beijing real estate association is worrying about a bubble. At least give them some credit here. Did America’s National Association of Realtors (NAR) ever caution that the U.S. housing market has a ‘big bubble’? If they did, we don’t recall it.

****

See also:  Beijing city limits home-buyers to one new apartment: Media

In The Economic Times

BEIJING: The city of Beijing has issued rules limiting families to one new apartment purchase as authorities try to rein in rampant property speculation and soaring prices, state media reported Friday.  More here.>>


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Strained U.S.-Beijing Ties Could Cripple Boeing’s China Strategy

Strained U.S.-Beijing Ties Could Cripple Boeing’s China Strategy 

Boeing 747 at PSN SM terminal, elevated view

Courtesy of PETER COHAN at Daily Finance 

You might think that with China owning at least $1.3 trillion of the U.S.’s $12 trillion in national debt that Washington would tread carefully when making moves that annoy Beijing. That’s hardly the case. Cases in point: The U.S. is selling $6.4 billion in military equipment to Taiwan, and President Obama is planning a meeting with the Dalai Lama.

These moves upset China, and it’s threatening to retaliate — in part by possibly sanctioning companies like Boeing (BA) — which is selling some of those arms to Taiwan, according to China Daily. The details of such sanctions have yet to be announced — but China’s threat could prompt Boeing executives to fly to Washington and Beijing to try calming things down.

Boeing needs China badly. According to China Daily, the planemaker sells over half the aircraft that Chinese airlines fly. And Boeing is purchasing hundreds of millions worth of parts from China for its new aircraft, the 787 Dreamliner. Moreover, over a third of Boeing’s total aircraft parts come from China. As I’ve posted, some observers think Boeing CEO Jim McNerney would even like to move Boeing to China to save money.

Continue here.>>

 


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China: Lending Restrictions and Beijing’s Predicament

China: Lending Restrictions and Beijing’s Predicament

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box

Solar Eclipse Observed in Asia

China has long been a mystery to foreign investors. Deeply involved in trade and commerce since the ancient days of the Silk Road, China has continued to maintain the appearance of closed economic borders and, even past these hardened gates, undeniable risk. Like any investor, you’ve probably been tempted to look at the prospects, and you’ve probably been met with a barricade of warnings about corruption and internal strife that quickly bounces you away. In the case of this sleeping dragon, knowing isn’t half the battle, the battle is in knowing.

I want to share with you my source for what is really going on globally – I get it from my friends at STRATFOR. They’ve got a unique way of measuring past events and analyzing geopolitical foundations to project the future. It’s not investment advice – it’s the geopolitical information you need to understand a region before you evaluate any investment opportunities.

This week I’m including an article with STRATFOR’s take on recent developments in Chinese banking restructuring. Give it a read and sign up for their free intelligence reports here.

John Mauldin
Editor, Outside the Box

China: Lending Restrictions and Beijing’s Predicament

Stratfor Today | January 20, 2010 | 1808 GMT

China Banking Regulatory Commission chief Liu Mingkang at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong on Jan. 20

Liu Mingkang, head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), said in an interview Jan. 20 that several Chinese banks had been asked to restrain their lending after proving to have inadequate capital reserves. Chinese media reports claimed that new bank loans so far in January have risen to as high as 1 and 1.5 trillion yuan ($146-$220 billion) — approaching or equaling the massive hike in January 2009. As a result, several major Chinese commercial banks (whose names were not given) were given oral commands to stop new lending for the rest of the month.

While the regulators will strive to control credit flows, the broader Chinese imperative to maintain growth at any cost contradicts the ability to preserve loan quality and allocate capital efficiently.

Under the guidance of the central government, bank lending — the dominant form of financing in China — has skyrocketed in the past year to spur growth, fend…
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China

So is China the next best thing since sliced bread, or another bubble in the baking?

Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

By DAVID BARBOZA, NY Times

Heavy Snow Fall Causes Disruption In Beijing

SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.”… continue here.>>

See also

Zero Hedge’s China Begins Liquidity Tightening, As Bubble Threat Looms

While the domestic money printing syndicate refuses to accept the glaring reality that endless money printing causes unavoidable hyperinflation (the only question being when), China has decided it is time to start closing the spigot. Bloomberg reports that, "China’s central bank began to roll back its monetary stimulus for an economy poised to become the world’s second-biggest this year, seeking to reduce the danger of asset-price inflation after a record surge in credit. The People’s Bank of China yesterday sold three-month bills at a higher interest rate for the first time in 19 weeks." Ah the benefits of a planned economy: controlling the supply and the demand at the same time. And further, being pegged to the dollar, China receives all the secondary benefits of the Chairman’s endless dollar printing. Ain’t life grand in Beijing…

 “It’s a signal toward the commercial banks, because the commercial banks allocate their lending at the


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ValueWalk

Investors urge pharmas to develop treatments for COVID-19

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Investors urge pharma companies to work collaboratively on developing treatments for COVID-19

Global pandemic calls for urgent and collective action to heal the sick and to prevent further contagion.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

NEW YORK, NY, TUESDAY, APRIL 7TH, 2020 - Investor members of the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility have sent ...



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Zero Hedge

Did Capital One Run Into A Commodity Prepay Wall?

ourtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jacques Simon,

In our last post we touted a too-big too fail return in the commodity-sector (a name nobody dare to pronounced. Today prices are down but market volatility is up (VaR is up, prices are down). Capital one, a FDIC-insured bank is allowed to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX Index Hits Two 18-Year Support Lines, Creates Large Bullish Reversal

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Has the DAX index from Germany experience a large decline of late? Yes, it has!

Has the decline broken long-term rising support lines? Not so far!

This chart looks at the DAX index on a monthly basis over the past 25-years. Over the past 6-years, it has traded sideways inside of the blue rectangle at (1).

The decline this year saw the DAX hit two 18-year rising support lines at (2) last month, where a large bullish reversal took place.

Until broken, important support remains in play at (2), which is bullish for this key index....



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Phil's Favorites

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

 

Here's how scientists are tracking the genetic evolution of COVID-19

Why do scientists care about mutations on the coronavirus? Alexandr Gnezdilov Light Painting

Niema Moshiri, University of California San Diego

When you hear the term “evolutionary tree,” you may think of Charles Darwin and the study of the relationships between different species over the span of millions of years.

While the concept of an “evolutionary tree” originated in Darwin’s “...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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