Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…
MrMocha
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Thanks,
Bob
RJK
Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.
JWick1981
CZR – well that was fun! Opened the play yesterday. As the arb premium was now almost all gone from the box spread today, I just decided to close it. The rundown, after all commissions: my net was $183.51 profit for an overnight trade tying up $2000 margin in an IRA account. That's a 9% overnight return (3200% annualized!) …And all that learning, too! Thanks PSW!
Scottmi
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
JohnO
You may wonder if anyone gets anything out of you seminars (or may not wonder). Anyway, I almost never day trade because of my job. Today, I was home due to the snow and since I was behind by 2 weeks on watching your recorded seminars I though I would watch one of them. I set up my pivot point charts in TOS to match the ones in your seminar and made the QQQ trade from this morning. I only bought 5 puts. While I watched the seminar, I would pause then switch back and forth and watch the live QQQ chart. I ended up stopping out for a $170 gain, but it was pretty cool to have the dip and recovery at the same time I was learning the art of stopping out when a pivot line was taken out.
rj_jarboe
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?
Matt1966
Best year I've ever had…sitting on a 52% YTD return. I would also echo Nat's shout out for Phil's talent. I've been a member for the 6 years or so. Just stay true to the strategy I've learned over the years of selling premium, keeping the bulk of my portfolio in long-term buy writes ("armchair" trades).
JJennings
Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.
Zeroxzero
Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.
Winston
Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)
Winston
Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.
DOStrade
Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.
Craiga620
Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!
RevTodd64
The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!
Gel1
Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !
Gel1
GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!
Ephmen85
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.
Aquila
Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.
Craigsa620
It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more.
It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.
Roro
Phil – Great calls yesterday, you were in top form. As I was reading your postings, I had hindsight of what the day brought. The calls were uncanny!
Jfawcett
Thank you Phil for this site – the trade discussions on PSW are mind boggling. Future trading while learning to be a value investor. Priceless
Joseph
Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!
JWick1981
Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!
DCalrk41
Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.
Batman
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
Jromeha
Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.
Kinkistyle
Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!
TmDecay
I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.
Sometimes sacrificing American goodwill, Google has tried to develop a lasting business relationship in China, complying with the stringent censorship demands of the Chinese government.
From buying stakes in Chinese startups to going through the tough Chinese bureaucracy to open local headquarters, the Google journey in the communist country has been marred with roadblocks.
HUGE quarter. Revenue of $9.9 billion blows away whisper of $9.4 billion. EPS of $1.82 blows away whispers of $1.65-ish.
iPhone sales of 7.4 million in-line with estimates despite supply constraints. Mac sales huge. iPod sales not as bad as many had feared.
Upside appears to have come from Macs and margins. The Mac resurgence is great news. This business had stalled, and Apple has a huge opportunity to gain share in the PC market.
December guidance comically conservative, but not alarming.
Overall: Wow. Apple is on its way to becoming the defacto platform standard in mobile. And the crumbling of Microsoft’s Windows monopoly has opened a huge window on the desktop. The company is galloping after both opportunities.
5:07: Macs. 3.05 million, up 17% Biggest ever by 440k. Growing faster than market 19 of last 20 quarters. Best user experience. 17% growth compares to 2% market growth = huge market share gain. laptops 74% of mix and all of the growth. Successful back-to-school. 12% growth to education. 50,000 Macbooks to Maine (lucky bastards). 3-4 weeks inventory at beginning and end of quarter.
5:10: iPods. 10.2 million, down from 11 million. iPod touch up 100% y/y, driven by back to school and App store. Share of US market still over 70%. Top-selling and continued to gain share year over year. Began and ended with 4-6 weeks of inventory. iTunes another great quarter. Largest music retailer, 11 million songs, 7500 movies.
5:11: iPhones. 7.4 million, up 7% (last year had 2mm inventory build). Sell-through up 38%. Widened lead in customer satisfaction. Start selling in China end of this month. Also expanding carrier relationship in UK and Canada. App Store: 500 million downloads in quarter. $2.3 billion in quarter.
5:13: Stores. $1.87 billion, vs $1.72 billion. 670,000 Macs vs. 576,000.
General Electric missed EPS expectations by two cents, reporting $0.22 for the third quarter. Revenue fell 20%, though this was largely caused by a 30% drop in revenue for the company’s Capital Finance segment as the company tries to pare back this troubled business’s operations.
While revenue fell for other segments as well, by a significant 9 – 18% each, margins improved substantially for all of them.
Overal operating profit fell 26% largely due to an 87% drop in profit from the Capital Finance business. Ex-Capital Finance, operating profit actually rose 4% to $4,179 million from $4,017 million.
It’s thus important to strip out the financial unit when judging the current operational situation, especially since it is being purposefully pared back.
Revenue fell by far less on this measure.
GE: Revenues were $37.8 billion, in line with our expectations. Industrial sales were down 13%. Industrial organic sales, which exclude the impact of FX and the 2008 Olympics, were down 8%. GE Capital Services (GECS) revenues declined 31%, driven by Capital Finance ending net investment reduction ahead of plan and the Penske Truck Leasing Co., L.P. deconsolidation.
While the financial arm still unfortunately poses an element of uncertainty for the stock, at least it didn’t post an operating loss.
The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront.
The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it. Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology. Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.
Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart. Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale. Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together. And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.
That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.
The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology. This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides. When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain? When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain? When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too? What if Ask and AOL are unhappy? Who will they call to complain?
In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about. We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.
The OS will initially be targeted to netbooks, then broadened to all PCs. It will be a combination of a Google Chrome browser and a Linux kernel. It will be a different project than Android. It will be designed to be simple and fast. It will also, presumably, be free.
Google’s blog post announcing the browser is below. A few points:
A year of development is a long time, and it shows how complex an undertaking this will be. Announcing the product a year early is also a major break with Google tradition and shows how much Google needs help from partners in this endeavor to be successful. (An OS that is distributed only by downloads won’t work. It needs to come loaded on the machine. This has been the big problem with Chrome so far, and Google needs to address it.)
Success is far from guaranteed. Google’s browser initiative, Chrome, has been a fun little science project, but as a product it has been a flop. The same can be said for almost all of Google’s non-search products. If Google wants to have a chance at success in this business, it needs to focus on it with the same intensity it once put into search. This will be challenging for Google, which, for the last several years, has had the luxury of dabbling in whatever it pleases.
Assuming the OS is free to both users and OEM PC makers, Microsoft will need to soup up the free version of its own Windows 7 OS for netbooks (right now, Microsoft’s plan is to ship a crappy free version of 7 and try to get users to upgrade. Eventually, if Google starts to gain traction, Microsoft may need to panic.)
This is classic disruption. Disruptive technologies do not immediately replace existing technologies because they are better. In fact, in the beginning, they are worse. They’re just…
It’s no secret that the growth of U.S. shale oil has been a thorn in the sides of both Saudi Arabia and Russia. They have seen their market shares erode as the shale boom made the U.S. the world’s largest producer of crude oil. But Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Saudi Aramco, is a single entity that produces 13 percent of the world’s oil and controls 17 percent of the world’s proved reserves. That puts them in a very p...
Is the S&P starting out a new month and quarter at a very important price point? This chart would say YES!
This chart looks at the S&P 500 on a weekly basis over the past 12-years, reflecting that it has spent the majority of the past 9-years “inside of this rising channel and above its 200-week moving average!”
The weakness in March saw the S&P break below the bottom of the channel and its 200-week ma line for the first time in 9-years.
The small counter-trend rally last week has the S&...
As the world reacts to the global economic slowdown because of the COVID-19 virus event and the massive stimulus programs and central bank efforts to support the global economy, investors still expect weakness in the US and foreign markets. We believe this expected weakness will not subside until news of a proper resolution to this virus event is rooted in the minds of investors and global markets.
Hong Kong and China are currently concerned about experiencing a “third wave” of the COVID-19 virus within their society. As the economies open back up to somewhat normal, people are very concerned that a renewed wave of new infections will suddenly appear and potenti...
The Federal Reserve had a precursor before it became the lender of last resort. It wasn’t an institution or a government department. It was a single, solitary man named J. Pierpont Morgan. Mr. Morgan, he was called in the newspapers, and you didn’t need to go any further – everyone knew to whom you were referring.
Stock market panics were common in the early 1900’s because of the agrarian nature of the economy. Each summer, the local banks that catered to farmers throughout the country began calling their money back from the banks in New York City and Chicago so they could raise enough capital to bring in the h...
NanoVibronix (NASDAQ: NAOV) shares are trading higher on Wednesday.
The company announced it has received reimbursement approval from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for its PainShield.
NanoVibronix focuses on the manufacturing and sale of noninvasive biological response-activating devices that target biofilm prevention, wound healing, and pain therapy. Its principal products include UroShield, an ultrasound-based product to prevent bacterial colonization and biofilm in urinary catheters, enhance antibiotic efficacy,...
Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Google Launching OS, Firing Torpedo Into Microsoft (And Apple) Hold (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL)
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.