Posts Tagged ‘Bob Janjuah’

Bob Janjuah: In an era of the destruction of fiat money: Euro to parity, Gold to $1500

Bob Janjuah: In an era of the destruction of fiat money: Euro to parity, Gold to $1500

handing bars of gold up a ladder

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

RBS’ Chief Market Strategist Bob Janjuah is one of the more bearish prognosticators in global finance.  He takes a fairly anti-fiat currency position and couches what he sees with the present financial crisis as the era of the destruction of fiat money. This is bearish for bonds and bullish for gold.

Let’s put Janjuah in the inflation camp of the inflation-deflation debate (I am in the deflation camp along with the likes of David Rosenberg). Now I haven’t seen Janjuah making hyperbolic claims of hyperinflation which I don’t find particularly credible. However, he does underline the weaknesses in fiat currency and the seduction of central banks to print money as a remedy for economic woe. These are credible arguments that have investment implications in the face of the euro-zone crisis.

His basic premise – with which I agree – is that this financial crisis has been mitigated by socializing the private sector losses of 2008 onto the public sector. Unfortunately, the losses are of the magnitude that what was credit revulsion in the financial sector has now become sovereign debt revulsion in 2010. The trigger for this shift was the Dubai crisis in November 2009 (see New Citigroup maven Buiter warns of sovereign debt delusion).

Therefore, in the first instance, there is the German-Greek tension within the eurozone. The Greeks want a much weaker euro in order to alleviate economic distress associated with their sovereign debt crisis (see "Twenty-first century competitive currency devaluations"). The Germans want a strong euro for historic and cultural reasons.  The Greeks are winning this battle right now as the Euro is plummeting. He expects the Euro to eventually hit US dollar parity as a result.

He also believes the U.S. Federal reserve wants inflation, something we laid out here last year in "Inflation: The strategy that dare not state its name." Long story short, Janjuah believes this is bullish for gold and he would not be surprised to see gold at $1500 before year end. Given his euro bearish call that also means gold at 1500 euros per ounce – a fall of over one third from present levels.

I would also point out that he believes the S&P…
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Phil's Favorites

A Missing Caveat to Last Week's Sell-Off

 

A Missing Caveat to Last Week’s Sell-Off

Courtesy of 

First of all, congratulations to my friend Ari Wald on the fifth anniversary of his weekly technical note, Inflection Points, for Oppenheimer & Co. I’ve been reading him since the beginning and posting his insights often here at TRB.

Ari makes sense of the price action and market cross-currents in a helpful, non-pedantic way, with enough detail for serious technicians but not so much so that you can’t understand what he’s saying. And his charts are always illuminating, no matter what’s going on.

Okay, here’s what Ari wants you...



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Zero Hedge

'Islamist Attack Plot' Foiled By German Police; 11 Arrested For Planning "To Kill As Many Infidels As Possible"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

German police arrested 11 people on Friday during a series of raids on a terror cell planning an "Islamist terrorist attack" using guns and a vehicle, prosecutors said. 

The goal, according to police, was to "kill as many "infidels" as possible."

According to thelocal.de, t...



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ValueWalk

Tax Receipts Decline As Budget Deficit Reaches Record

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The U.S budget deficit has widened as the corporate and individual tax receipts and other revenue declines in the face of federal spending reaching new heights.

geralt / Pixabay

Last year’s fiscal gap for February was $215.2 billion. It has now grown to $234 billion. This is larger than the last budget deficit record set in 2012. This increase is due to declines in tax receipts for October-February. The period saw a decline of 1 percent (1.3 trillion ) from the prior year while growth in federal spending rose upwards of 9 percent to 1.8 t...



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Chart School

Palladium Action Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Palladium is near its peak, or at least a consolidation. Russia and South Africa are the producers of palladium, and it looks like Putin has been able to play US Futures market for a lot of Russia gain! Which metal is next?


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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE Index Suggesting The Top Is In, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index suggesting that a top is in play? What this index does to close this week should go a long way to answering that question!

This chart looks at the NYSE Index on a weekly basis over the past 4-years. Over the past 15-months, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of the shaded falling channel. It hit strong support around Christmas at (1) and a counter-trend rally started. The rally now has it testing the top of the falling channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The NYSE index could be cre...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Buckingham cut the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN) from $32 to $26. Trinity Industries shares closed at $22.96 on Thursday.
  • Canaccord Genuity lowered the price target for Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) from $396 to $275. Biogen shares closed at $226.88 on Thursday.
  • H.C. Wainwright cut the price target on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CNAT) from $8 to $1.50. Conatus Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $2.91 on Thursday.
  • Wedb...


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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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