Posts Tagged ‘bulls and bears’

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

Courtesy of Pragcap

David Tepper says you can’t go wrong buying equities here. The market certainly appears to be in full agreement as stocks have rallied in 12 of the last 18 sessions for a total of 10.4%. This is becoming reminiscent of the April rally when the macro risks appeared abundant and yet equity investors ignored the risks and continued to pile into stocks recklessly.  As I was building my first sizable short position in over a year I often referred to this as the “can’t lose market” earlier this year.  Of course, we all know how that ended – a 20% decline and a flash crash later and every one of the April stock market bulls was discussing the probability of a double dip. Then, just when everyone appeared most fearful, stocks flipped on the bull switch in early September.  That bearish sentiment has cleared and now everyone is bullish and sees no risks on the horizon. Futures this evening are ready to stage another nice bull move.  Is the “can’t lose market” back?  More importantly, how long does this irrational move last before the herd is once again caught on the wrong side of the trade?


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Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears

Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Weekly stock market commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was yet another round in the current struggle between bulls and bears that ended virtually in a draw as indexes closed flat for the week. 

However, next week’s trading , August 2-6, will very likely prove to be ‘crunch time’ for both bulls and bears, and by this coming Friday it’s quite likely that only one animal will be left standing.

Looking at My Screens 

We remain in the “Yellow Flag” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  However, it definitely appears that the latest rally is stalling below the 200 Day Moving Average on the S&P 500 and that we are still at the “tipping point” as we discussed earlier in the week. 

As always the chart tells the story:

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the daily chart of the S&P 500, you can see how we’re locked in this trading range between the all important 200 Day Moving Average at 1114 and the 50 Day Moving Average at 1081.  The 200 Day is offering impressive resistance while the 50 Day offers almost equally impressive support, but there can be no question that this will be resolved one way or other in the near future with a break above or below these demarcation lines. 

Taking a wider view, we can also see that we are at a critical juncture:

 

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com 

The chart above is a 12 month view of the S&P 500 and you can see how this offers a clear view of longer term trends, calling the beginning of the bear market in late 2007 and the new uptrend a couple of months after the now infamous March lows of 2009. 

Today you can see that we’re right at the 12 month moving average, just above it, actually, and that the index is struggling both above and below this important line in the sand. 

The more ominous indicator on this chart is the MACD, which while still barely positive and so on a “buy” signal, has rolled over dramatically since the March uptrend began and now sits perilously closer to a “sell” signal on a longer term basis. 

We remain in inverse ETFs and cash in our Standard and 2X Portfolio and are bearishly…
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Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Courtesy of Bill Luby at Vix and More 

Brown bear in water, elevated view

Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.

My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue line in the chart below, which is now at a one month low, meaning that bullish investors are now likely to be speculating more aggressively with calls and are less concerned about managing risk with put protection. The chart shows that prior lows in August, September, October and January all preceded meaningful pullbacks. The history of put to call extremes suggests that another pullback is now in the offing.

Whether the bears are truly emboldened or even bother watching put to call ratios, this looks like an excellent time for longs to take some profits and go enjoy the vernal equinox.

For more on related subjects, readers are encouraged to check out:

 

[source: StockCharts] 

 


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Zero Hedge

Gen Z Will Ditch Alcohol To Become The "Ultimate" Marijuana Consuming Generation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

America's newest generation is growing up in a marijuana environment that is unlike anything ever seen in the U.S.

Generation Z has never experienced an era where marijuana was looked upon as a "scourge", or the source of extreme political ire - instead, they have only known an era where cannabis is being relentlessly pushed toward acceptance and legality. In fact, California voted to legalize medical marijuana in 1996, just one year before the eldest Generation Z consumers were born, ...



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Phil's Favorites

How Does this Happen?

 

How Does this Happen?

Courtesy of 

Apple has added $286 billion in market capitalization over the past 73 trading sessions. That’s $10 million every minute.

There are only 11 companies in the United States with a higher valuation than what Apple managed to tack on since January 3rd.

The biggest stock in the world gained 43% in under four months. How does something like this happen?

This question is a Rorschach test of sorts. Some people will see this and scoff at the idea that m...



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Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

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Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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