Posts Tagged ‘bulls and bears’

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

Courtesy of Pragcap

David Tepper says you can’t go wrong buying equities here. The market certainly appears to be in full agreement as stocks have rallied in 12 of the last 18 sessions for a total of 10.4%. This is becoming reminiscent of the April rally when the macro risks appeared abundant and yet equity investors ignored the risks and continued to pile into stocks recklessly.  As I was building my first sizable short position in over a year I often referred to this as the “can’t lose market” earlier this year.  Of course, we all know how that ended – a 20% decline and a flash crash later and every one of the April stock market bulls was discussing the probability of a double dip. Then, just when everyone appeared most fearful, stocks flipped on the bull switch in early September.  That bearish sentiment has cleared and now everyone is bullish and sees no risks on the horizon. Futures this evening are ready to stage another nice bull move.  Is the “can’t lose market” back?  More importantly, how long does this irrational move last before the herd is once again caught on the wrong side of the trade?


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Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears

Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Weekly stock market commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was yet another round in the current struggle between bulls and bears that ended virtually in a draw as indexes closed flat for the week. 

However, next week’s trading , August 2-6, will very likely prove to be ‘crunch time’ for both bulls and bears, and by this coming Friday it’s quite likely that only one animal will be left standing.

Looking at My Screens 

We remain in the “Yellow Flag” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  However, it definitely appears that the latest rally is stalling below the 200 Day Moving Average on the S&P 500 and that we are still at the “tipping point” as we discussed earlier in the week. 

As always the chart tells the story:

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the daily chart of the S&P 500, you can see how we’re locked in this trading range between the all important 200 Day Moving Average at 1114 and the 50 Day Moving Average at 1081.  The 200 Day is offering impressive resistance while the 50 Day offers almost equally impressive support, but there can be no question that this will be resolved one way or other in the near future with a break above or below these demarcation lines. 

Taking a wider view, we can also see that we are at a critical juncture:

 

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com 

The chart above is a 12 month view of the S&P 500 and you can see how this offers a clear view of longer term trends, calling the beginning of the bear market in late 2007 and the new uptrend a couple of months after the now infamous March lows of 2009. 

Today you can see that we’re right at the 12 month moving average, just above it, actually, and that the index is struggling both above and below this important line in the sand. 

The more ominous indicator on this chart is the MACD, which while still barely positive and so on a “buy” signal, has rolled over dramatically since the March uptrend began and now sits perilously closer to a “sell” signal on a longer term basis. 

We remain in inverse ETFs and cash in our Standard and 2X Portfolio and are bearishly…
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Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Courtesy of Bill Luby at Vix and More 

Brown bear in water, elevated view

Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.

My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue line in the chart below, which is now at a one month low, meaning that bullish investors are now likely to be speculating more aggressively with calls and are less concerned about managing risk with put protection. The chart shows that prior lows in August, September, October and January all preceded meaningful pullbacks. The history of put to call extremes suggests that another pullback is now in the offing.

Whether the bears are truly emboldened or even bother watching put to call ratios, this looks like an excellent time for longs to take some profits and go enjoy the vernal equinox.

For more on related subjects, readers are encouraged to check out:

 

[source: StockCharts] 

 


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Zero Hedge

Toshiba Shareholders Vote To Oust Chairman In Rare Blow To Management

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Rebukes of corporate leaders in Japan are rare, but on Friday, shareholders of Toshiba - one of Japan's most important and most well-known tech giants - voted to oust Chairman of the Board Osamu Nagayama (along with a member of the board's audit committee) after an independent investigation uncovered that the company had wrongly colluded with other insiders to try and influence last year's board selection.

The vote comes just months after Toshiba investors backed Singapore-based hedge fund Effissimo Capital Management's call for a probe into the 2020 annu...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-23-2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-23-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:13 - Checking on the Market
00:00:33 - DJIA
00:03:16 - S&P 500 / Russell 2000
00:04:43 - Bitcoin 
00:08:21 - Natural Gas / Energy
00:11:25 - Gasoline / Crude Oil
00:12:34 - EIA Report
00:18:44 - Inflation
00:24:28 - Natural Gas
00:28:26 - Lumber
00:29:38 - Sugar
00:30:16 - Orange Juice
00:31:36 - Cotton
00:31:54 - USD / Orange Juice
00:34:08 - Coffee...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The FDA's weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

 

The FDA’s weak drug manufacturing oversight is a potentially deadly problem

Though drug recalls are relatively uncommon in the U.S., reduced inspections increase the likelihood of manufacturing errors that slip through the cracks. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Courtesy of Adrian V. Hernandez, University of Connecticut and C. Michael White, University of Connecticut

The ...



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Digital Currencies

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

 

Will Bitcoin Crash the Stock Market?

Courtesy of 

When the S&P 500 fell in March last year, it brought Bitcoin down with it. So if stocks can bring down Bitcoin, it’s reasonable to ask if Bitcoin can bring down stocks.*

If you thought the Bitcoin run-up to 60k was emblematic of investor** euphoria, then you probably wondered what would happen if it were to come crashing down. Would that take other high-flying areas of the market down with it?

It might be premature, but as of now, the answer is no.

...



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Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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