Posts Tagged ‘bulls and bears’

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

IS THE “CAN’T LOSE” MARKET BACK?

Courtesy of Pragcap

David Tepper says you can’t go wrong buying equities here. The market certainly appears to be in full agreement as stocks have rallied in 12 of the last 18 sessions for a total of 10.4%. This is becoming reminiscent of the April rally when the macro risks appeared abundant and yet equity investors ignored the risks and continued to pile into stocks recklessly.  As I was building my first sizable short position in over a year I often referred to this as the “can’t lose market” earlier this year.  Of course, we all know how that ended – a 20% decline and a flash crash later and every one of the April stock market bulls was discussing the probability of a double dip. Then, just when everyone appeared most fearful, stocks flipped on the bull switch in early September.  That bearish sentiment has cleared and now everyone is bullish and sees no risks on the horizon. Futures this evening are ready to stage another nice bull move.  Is the “can’t lose market” back?  More importantly, how long does this irrational move last before the herd is once again caught on the wrong side of the trade?


Tags: , ,




Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears

Crunch Time for Both Bulls and Bears (SPY, DIA, GLD, USO)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Weekly stock market commentary from Wall Street Sector Selector

Last week was yet another round in the current struggle between bulls and bears that ended virtually in a draw as indexes closed flat for the week. 

However, next week’s trading , August 2-6, will very likely prove to be ‘crunch time’ for both bulls and bears, and by this coming Friday it’s quite likely that only one animal will be left standing.

Looking at My Screens 

We remain in the “Yellow Flag” mode, expecting choppy prices ahead.  However, it definitely appears that the latest rally is stalling below the 200 Day Moving Average on the S&P 500 and that we are still at the “tipping point” as we discussed earlier in the week. 

As always the chart tells the story:

 

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the daily chart of the S&P 500, you can see how we’re locked in this trading range between the all important 200 Day Moving Average at 1114 and the 50 Day Moving Average at 1081.  The 200 Day is offering impressive resistance while the 50 Day offers almost equally impressive support, but there can be no question that this will be resolved one way or other in the near future with a break above or below these demarcation lines. 

Taking a wider view, we can also see that we are at a critical juncture:

 

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com 

The chart above is a 12 month view of the S&P 500 and you can see how this offers a clear view of longer term trends, calling the beginning of the bear market in late 2007 and the new uptrend a couple of months after the now infamous March lows of 2009. 

Today you can see that we’re right at the 12 month moving average, just above it, actually, and that the index is struggling both above and below this important line in the sand. 

The more ominous indicator on this chart is the MACD, which while still barely positive and so on a “buy” signal, has rolled over dramatically since the March uptrend began and now sits perilously closer to a “sell” signal on a longer term basis. 

We remain in inverse ETFs and cash in our Standard and 2X Portfolio and are bearishly…
continue reading


Tags: , ,




Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Courtesy of Bill Luby at Vix and More 

Brown bear in water, elevated view

Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.

My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue line in the chart below, which is now at a one month low, meaning that bullish investors are now likely to be speculating more aggressively with calls and are less concerned about managing risk with put protection. The chart shows that prior lows in August, September, October and January all preceded meaningful pullbacks. The history of put to call extremes suggests that another pullback is now in the offing.

Whether the bears are truly emboldened or even bother watching put to call ratios, this looks like an excellent time for longs to take some profits and go enjoy the vernal equinox.

For more on related subjects, readers are encouraged to check out:

 

[source: StockCharts] 

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

How Germany is managing its coronavirus epidemic, and reacting with disdain to Trump's policies

 

How Germany is managing its coronavirus epidemic, and reacting with disdain to Trump's policies

On March 29 in Berlin, the Brandenburg Gate is almost deserted due to restrictions on public life. Getty/Carsten Koall/picture alliance

Klaus W. Larres, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A recent work visit to Germany, where I grew up, stretched from one week to three. Those weeks coincided with the spread of the coronavirus in Germany as well as across Europe.

What I saw while there is th...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

How Germany is managing its coronavirus epidemic, and reacting with disdain to Trump's policies

 

How Germany is managing its coronavirus epidemic, and reacting with disdain to Trump's policies

On March 29 in Berlin, the Brandenburg Gate is almost deserted due to restrictions on public life. Getty/Carsten Koall/picture alliance

Klaus W. Larres, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A recent work visit to Germany, where I grew up, stretched from one week to three. Those weeks coincided with the spread of the coronavirus in Germany as well as across Europe.

What I saw while there is th...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Zero Hedge

Tent Hospital Erected In Central Park As Hospital Ship Arrives In New York City

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With an unprecedented 66,000 coronavirus cases now reported in New York State, an emergency hospital was erected in tents in Central Park Sunday, as New York City’s staggering toll of coronavirus deaths rose to at least 776, pushing the statewide count past 1,000.

“We’re going to be using every place we need to use to help people,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said. “This is the kind of thing you will see now as this crisis develops and deepens.”

As ...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Testing 9-Year Support, With Fear Levels At 2009 Highs!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important Tech Index sending a bullish message to investors? It is making an attempt!

Does that mean a low in this important sector is in play? Humbly it is too soon to say at this time!

This chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite Index over the past 25-years on a monthly basis.

The index has spent the majority of the past 9-years inside of rising channel (1), as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs. It created bearish reversal patterns in January & February as it was kissing the underside of the top of the channel and...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

With Everybody Stuck At Home, Investor Conferences Are Going Virtual

Courtesy of Benzinga

With the world at a COVID-19-induced standstill, many conference organizers have either gone online (Benzinga is one of them) or had to cancel upcoming events altogether. There is no clear timetable on how much longer we will be in this state.

Publicly traded companies are already limited in wh...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



more from Our Members

Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



more from Bitcoin

The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



more from Tech. Traders

Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

more from ValueWalk

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.