Posts Tagged ‘Bundesbank’

IS THE ECB ABOUT TO GO NUCLEAR?

IS THE ECB ABOUT TO GO NUCLEAR?

Bikini Bomb

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The ECB is in a most unenviable position.  As the EMU begins to falter they are confronted with few tools with which to fight this battle.  The market called their bluff yesterday with the Greek bailout and is clearly looking past Greece at Portugal and Spain while daring the ECB to make a move on either country.  The bond “vigilantes” are betting on the fact that the ECB has overplayed their hand with the Greek bailout.  At this point, it looks like the vigilantes are correct.  The ECB put a gun on the table and it turns out to have been nothing more than a water pistol.  Unfortunately for the vigilantes the ECB is not out of tricks.  They have a Hank Paulson like bazooka in their option to buy bonds on the secondary market.  But can they use it?   RBS analysts believe they should not hesitate in acting:

“The ECB should not wait for a renewed deterioration of the periphery before acting. It should regain its leadership in tackling the crisis following a complete communication and coordination failure amongst euro area fiscal authorities around the Greek crisis. Should contagion reappear, there will probably not be enough time to go through a similar backstop facility to that of Greece for the next country. There simply will not be enough time. Better breaking the rule-book than breaking up the euro area!”

Unfortunately, the decision is a bit more complex than the Fed’s decision to buy assets directly from the U.S.banks – what many refer to as “quantitative easing”.  As we’ve previously explained, the Euro is flawed primarily because it is one currency housed under several economies with multiple governments.  They are not truly unified because their economic strategies differ which make their inherent monetary needs different.  Using the same currency for economies as different as Germany and Greece is truly forcing a square peg in a round hole.

Where are the potential roadblocks to QE?   First of all, the program would have to be massive.  Credit Suisse estimates that the cost to bailout Spain, Portgual and Greece could be as high as $600B.  The program would almost certainly have to be as large in order to quell any and all market fears.  But the bigger roadblock is the Maastricht treaty.  Although the ECB could technically…
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Zero Hedge

An American Horror Story: Rabobank On The Recession Of 2020

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Philip Marey via Rabobank,

Summary
  • While the outlook for 2020 remains sketchy, heavily dependent on non-economic factors, we now expect GDP to fall by 6% in 2020.

  • With a slowdown in February and a sharp contraction of the economy in March, we expect GDP growth in Q1 to be negative (-5% quarter on quarter at an annualized rate).

  • However, the most extreme economic growth figure is likely to be Q2 GDP growth with the lockdown continuing through at least April and l...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
01:16:00 - Portfolio Projection: Income Portfolio
01:17:23 - FUTURES
01:18:49 - Earnings Portfolio
01:19:27 - STP | LTP
01:22:52 - S&P 500
01:30:05 - AAPL
01:34:15 - VIX
01:36:00 - M
01:42:56 - VIAC
01:47:02 - XOM
01:50:29 - LB
01:52:44 - IRBT
01:57:48 - Crude Oil WTI
02...



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ValueWalk

Public pensions face liquidity crunch amid volatility

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Public pensions have had weak liquidity for a long time, but the recent volatility has made a bad situation even worse. S&P noted that pensions‘ investment horizons are decades long. As a result, many funds claim that market turmoil doesn’t affect their returns because they have plenty of time to ride out volatility. However, funds with weak liquidity don’t have that luxury in the current volatility.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Public pensions in liquidity stress

S&P Global Ratings analyst Todd Kanaster and team said in a recent report that because of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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