Posts Tagged ‘Cantarell’

If We Can’t Get Oil from Mexico…

If We Can’t Get Oil from Mexico…

mexico - tbiCourtesy of Lawrence Delevingne at Clusterstock

This was originally posted at The Oil Drum, and has been reprinted under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.

*** 

The news from Mexico just continues to get worse with bad news from all three of their biggest oil fields, even as our perennial cornucopian talks of “a Mexican surprise.” As Gregor noted recently (h/t ft energysource) at the beginning of the year Cantarell was producing 862,000 bd and at the end of July this was down to 588,000 bd. The graph plotting decline continues to show a linear decent at the rate of 35,000 bd per month or roughly 100,000 bd every three months – giving it just 17-months at that rate (ending right at the end of next year) until there is nothing left. Somewhere in there the drop is likely to stabilize, but suddenly and soon the questions as to where the replacement hundreds of thousands of barrels are going to come from is going to stop being an almost academic exercise.

Mexico: Daily production from one-time super giant cantarell oilfield - tbi

The peak and decline of Cantarell – where Mexico once got most of its oil.

But they aren’t the only ones in trouble. Consider U.S. net imports from Mexico over the same period. That decline also looks pretty linear, with a projected intersection with zero in 2014, depending on where you draw the line.

 the oil drum, monthly us net imports from mexico
Net Imports From Mexico (EIA)

Mexico itself is not likely to be able to come up with much of an answer.

The President just changed the head of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as the revenues that the state gets from sale of its oil (making up nearly 40% of the federal budget) dropped 30% in the first half of the year. Current Mexican Government predictions that overall Mexican production will stabilize at 2.5 mbd over next year don’t reflect the collapse of Cantarell, and also fail to recognize that the promised increases in production from other fields are not reaching the goals set. It is only a few days since the production at Chicontepec was “evaluated” after falling some 12,000 bd short of target. This field is still in development, with ultimate production targeted at 550,000 to 700,000 bd by 2017, but as it is already 16%…
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ValueWalk

Microsoft And Mastercard Exhibit Bearish Post-Earnings Behavior

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on the bearish post-earnings behavior of Microsoft and Mastercard, and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The major indices are all trading significantly lower at midday following another volatile and bearish morning session on Wall Street, with the deteriorating COVID picture weighing on global risk assets. European stocks, currencies, and crude oil all fell sharply overnight amid fears of another lockdown period in Europe, and the negative sentiment affected U.S. inde...



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Phil's Favorites

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

 

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

"These rallies offer a boost to the president's ego but risk leaving behind a trail of sickness and increased strain on local public health departments and medical systems."

By Kenny Stancil, Common Dreams

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Altoona-Blair County Airport in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania on October 26, 2020. (Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Ha...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

 

Where the President Goes, Coronavirus Follows: Analysis Shows Spike in Covid-19 Cases After Numerous Trump Rallies

"These rallies offer a boost to the president's ego but risk leaving behind a trail of sickness and increased strain on local public health departments and medical systems."

By Kenny Stancil, Common Dreams

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Altoona-Blair County Airport in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania on October 26, 2020. (Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

Ha...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are the U.S. Stock Market Indices Facing Double Top Deja Vu?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Stock market volatility has turned higher as the month of October has wore on. And now that we are just one week away from the elections, it appears that investors are showing their uncertainty through the price action on the major U.S. stock market indices.

In today’s chart 2-pack, we look at “weekly” charts of the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index. Though not the same, they have a similar developing pattern. Perhaps one that leads to a 15%+ decline back in 2018.

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Just as we saw in 2018, momentum is forming a bearish divergence this year at (1). Tha...



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Zero Hedge

As "Blue-Wave"-Mania Melts Down, "Large Lot" Traders Are Leaving The Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Are retail bagholders about to get "muppet"-ed again?

Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns that the “election narrative overshoots” continue to swing wildly on the imminent event-risk approach - and partially as a function of horrific market illiquidity, with banks / dealers on facilitation lockdown, as per Risk Management “VaR shock” muscle-memory from 4 yrs ago:

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Chart School

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Courtesy of Read the Ticker

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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

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Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

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Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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