Posts Tagged ‘Chi Fulin’

The Shanghai market calls the tune

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The Shanghai market calls the tune 

shanghai market calls the tuneCourtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are still hogging the spotlight. Although down 18.0% from its recent peak exactly one month ago, the past three days have been good for Chinese stock market investors. After rising 0.60% on Tuesday and 1.17% on Wednesday, the SSE composite was up a very smart 4.79% today.

So what happened? Better-than-expected earnings from Chinese corporations? A surge in US household income and a decline in US unemployment boosting the prospects for China’s tradable goods sector? A huge new loan number for the month of August?

Actually, none of the above. In fact the US numbers look especially bleak for China. In spite of some seemingly good news on the macroeconomic side, unemployment in the US is still rising, and even that masks the depth of the problem. Many Americans who have lost jobs have since then found new jobs, but at lower pay, so that although they don’t show up adversely in the unemployment data, they nonetheless represent lower income to workers as certainly as rising unemployment does, and this will have an impact on future private consumption.

Societe Generale’s ever bearish Albert Edwards had an excellent piece on the subject on August 6, in which he argues that:

US nominal household incomes are now contracting at an unprecedented rate. The largest component of household income is wages and salaries which had been declining some 1% yoy. But after revisions the statisticians now admit to an unprecedented 4.8% decline! Total pre-tax household income is now recorded as falling 3.4% yoy in June.

If US household income is declining so sharply, we can’t really expect a sharp pick-up in imports, even ignoring the fact that households are also in the process of deleveraging, and so cutting back even more sharply on consumption that their incomes might indicate. But in spite of still-bad news in both the external or internal environments, the markets are nonetheless in a much better mood than they were just a few days ago. Why? The People’s Daily explains:

Chinese equities climbed Wednesday after the country’s securities regulator said it would take measures to promote the steady and healthy development of the market.

Or, if you…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Lumber Price Peak Would Raise Concerns For Equities!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The supply chain has dealt with several issues over the past couple of years, as consumers and businesses have been forced to navigate a tricky “COVID” landscape.

Commodity prices (in general) have risen, while enduring some big swings.

Today we look at a commodity that plays an intricate role for consumers, and perhaps the equities market as well. Lumber. When lumber prices are high, new homes and buildings cost quite a bit more.

Above is a “weekly” chart of lumber prices. As you can see, there have been times when a lumber peak/bottom have be...



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ValueWalk

How To Buy Gold

By Eric Gozenput. Originally published at ValueWalk.

If you’re looking for an asset that protects against inflation, buy gold!  Take a look at our helpful guide below for some tips on purchasing this precious metal.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Wondering How to Buy Physical Gold? Consider The Different Types: Gold Bars and Rounds

Gold bars are one of the most popular gold buying options for investors. B...



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Zero Hedge

Canadian 'Freedom Convoy' Receives First GoFundMe Payment After Temporary Halt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (Friday 0711ET): Organizers of the "Freedom Convoy" have "received confirmation that GoFundMe has released our first batch of funds" following reports Thursday, the c...



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Phil's Favorites

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature's way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

 

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature’s way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

Preliminary research suggests that the omicron variant may potentially induce a robust immune response. Olga Siletskaya/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina

In the short time since...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature's way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

 

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature’s way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

Preliminary research suggests that the omicron variant may potentially induce a robust immune response. Olga Siletskaya/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina

In the short time since...



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Digital Currencies

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

 

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

Courtesy of 

Chart via Piper Sandler’s new note on Coinbase. They don’t think it’s trading as a proxy for Bitcoin but I know it is. Here’s their take:

COIN shares have performed in-line with bitcoin since reaching an all-time closing high on 11/9/21. COIN shares and the price of bitcoin (which we use as a proxy for broader cryptocurrency pric...



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Politics

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine - and why the US is involved

 

5 things to know about why Russia might invade Ukraine – and why the US is involved

Courtesy of Tatsiana Kulakevich, University of South Florida

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 19, 2022, that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and cautioned Russian president Vladimir Putin that he “will regret having done it,” following months of building tension.

Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine over the past several months.

In mid-January, Russia began moving ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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