Apple, Google, NewsCorp and the Future of Content: Interview with Michael Whalen
by ilene - December 8th, 2010 1:41 am
Courtesy of rcwhalen - Chris Whalen - writing at Zero Hedge
Apple, Google, NewsCorp and the Future of Content: Interview with Michael Whalen
The Institutional Risk Analyst
In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Michael Whalen, award winning composer and new media observer about the outlook for the business of creating and delivering content. Since graduating from Berklee College of Music, Michael has taught a business for music class than has saved thousands of young atists from making terrible mistakes with content and other contractual rights. Think Frank Zappa and Warner Brothers. And yes, Michael is IRA co-founder Chris Whalen’s younger brother.
The IRA: So Michael, let’s start with kudos for the call on iTunes years ago. You first gave your brother a heads up about Apple Computer’s (AAPL) move into music via iTunes a decade ago, correct?
Whalen: Thanks. Yes…back in 2000 – 2001, I saw that Apple was getting ready to take a monumental step by shifting its business away from just computers and software towards mobile devices. To see how big a deal this decision was, you have to travel back to that time… When people thought of downloadable music the first thing they thought of was Napster (remember them?) and to the general business community the idea of all entertainment being sold and distributed digitally through a SIMPLE platform was "risky" and truly visionary. The music business was all about CDs (still) and the traditional model of physical product. Interestingly, iPod was not first to market. The digital music players that did exist beforehand were clunky and big. In 2001, concepts such as iTunes and the iPod made it look like Steve Jobs and the management at AAPL were crazy or at least losing "confidence" in their core business. People asked with more than a tone of criticism: "why diversify"? "Has Microsoft (MSFT) beaten you"? Now 10 years later, their gamble looks like genius. It was…
The IRA: Indeed. How do you view the AAPL strategy going forward, especially with the apparent decision to let Droid handset take overall share? Is AAPL still well advised to keep proprietary control over the hardware and not allow third-party produces to make handsets that run the AAPL OS? Click here ( http://us1.irabankratings.com/mobile/home.asp ) to see IRA’s new digital widget for handsets.
Whalen: I think handicapping the handset/mobile device market…
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WHALEN: BANK RESTRUCTURINGS LIKELY AS FORECLOSURES “OVERWHELM” BIG BANKS
by ilene - October 18th, 2010 1:23 pm
WHALEN: BANK RESTRUCTURINGS LIKELY AS FORECLOSURES “OVERWHELM” BIG BANKS
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics provided some recent clarity on the foreclosure crisis and its impact on the banking sector. Whalen believes the foreclosure crisis merely proves that the credit crisis never ended and that the government “bought time” for the banks. That time is now running out and the banks simply do not have the capital, the earnings or the capability to absorb the losses in the pipeline from the continuing foreclosures. Ultimately, Whalen believes restructurings are likely to occur in 2011 as the U.S. government is finally forced to deal with the banking sector as it should have in 2009.
For more from Chris Whalen see his recent must see presentation at AEI.
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Check Out Chris Whalen’s Terrifying Presentation On The 2011 Foreclosure Crisis
by ilene - October 9th, 2010 6:42 pm
Check Out Chris Whalen’s Terrifying Presentation On The 2011 Foreclosure Crisis
Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Business Insider
The biggest bear in foreclosure-gate is Institutional Risk Analytic’s Chris Whalen.
At a conference Wednesday, Whalen said the foreclosure crisis would make 2008 look like a cakewalk (via Prag Cap):
"The U.S. banking industry is entering a new period of crisis where operating costs are rising dramatically due to foreclosures and defaults. We are less than ¼ of the way through the foreclosure process."
Whalen says subprime losses never really showed up on balance sheets. But a coming wave of foreclosures will make them a reality. At a time when banks are already stressed, these rising operational costs will cause bankruptcy.
Even without foreclosure-gate banks were screwed. As the government stalls the clear out of toxic assets, bank liabilities will rise even more.
Click here to see Whalen’s presentation >
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CHRIS WHALEN DESCRIBES WHY 2011 COULD MAKE 2008 LOOK LIKE A CAKEWALK
by ilene - October 8th, 2010 2:05 am
CHRIS WHALEN DESCRIBES WHY 2011 COULD MAKE 2008 LOOK LIKE A CAKEWALK
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Christopher Whalen makes a remarkably convincing case for why we’ve simply kicked the can down the road and why the
The U.S. banking industry is entering a new period of crisis where operating costs are rising dramatically due to foreclosures and defaults. We are less than frac14; of& the way through the foreclosure process. Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities predicts that 1& in 5 mortgages could go into foreclosure without radical action.
Rising operating costs in banks will be more significant than in past recessions and could force the U.S. government to restructure some large lenders as expenses overwhelm revenue. BAC, JPM, GMAC foreclosure moratoriums only the start of the crisis that threatens the financial foundations of the entire U.S. political economy.
The largest U.S. banks remain insolvent and must continue to shrink. Failure by the Obama Administration to restructure the largest banks during 2007?2009 period only means that this process is going to occur over next three to five years –whether we like it or not. The issue is recognizing existing losses ?? not if a loss occurred.
Impending operational collapse of some of the largest U.S. banks will serve as the catalyst for re?creation of RFC?type liquidation vehicle(s) to handle the operational task of finally deflating the subprime bubble. End of the liquidation cycle of the deflating bubble will arrive in another four to five years.
Fast forward to the 1:07 minute mark where Mr. Whalen begins.
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Double Dip Est Arrivé: Institutional Risk Analyst
by ilene - July 9th, 2010 11:22 am
Double Dip Est Arrivé: Institutional Risk Analyst
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analyst has this interesting interview on CNBC, sent to me by a reader.
I have not watched that television channel in some years, finding their shallowness and hypocrisy too much to bear. Of course my refuge, Bloomberg Television, has lowered its standards so much, with spokesmodels and smirking chimps, that it may have achieved parity. Are Cramer, Kudlow and Kernan still kicking? Remarkable.
This is an interesting exposition of the currency wars, and the pandering to the big financial institutions by the Fed over the past fifteen years, ultimately at the expense of the real economy in the distortions and misallocation of capital which the financial engineers have fostered.
Here is the interview with Jim Rickards to which Chris alludes.
Chris Whalen sounds like me. I wonder if he can cook?
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Chris Whalen’s 2010 Outlook: “A Grudging Admission of the Truth”
by ilene - December 18th, 2009 12:38 pm
Chris Whalen’s 2010 Outlook: "A Grudging Admission of the Truth"
By Aaron Task
Financials suffered Thursday after Citigroup’s massive secondary offering was poorly received and influential analyst Meredith Whitney cut 2010 estimates on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
The answer is "yes" (or "both"), according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics.
In 2009, the momentum created by a "wall of paper fiat dollars" overcame the industry’s still-poor fundamentals, driving the sector higher, Whalen says. "Where you see the markets changing in terms of sentiment is where fundamentals are so ugly they can’t be ignored."
Whalen is sticking by a prior forecast that the fourth-quarter will be a "bloodbath" for the banks but says the real ugliness won’t occur until the middle of 2010…
But even prior to Thursday’s selloff, a lot of traders were nervously watching the poor action in the financials as a possible "tell" for the broader market. The question is whether the recent weakness is just profit taking after the big gains earlier this year or concern about the fundamentals heading into 2010.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.