Posts Tagged ‘cleanup’

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster 

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline 

GRAND ISLE, LA - AUGUST 10: A family plays in the shallows near oil booms August 10, 2010 in Grand Isle, Louisiana. According to a statement issued by BP, efforts to complete the relief well will cease temporarily due to a U.S. National Weather Service prediction that there is a 60 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf in the next 24 hours. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

As I mentioned last Monday night in my Outside the Box, I did not make it to Turks and Caicos, but did end up in Baton Rouge for a special seminar on the Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill. I have both good news (or maybe more like less-bad news) and bad news. Today’s letter is a report on what I learned.

The conference was sponsored by the Global Interdependence Center (GIC - http://www.interdependence.org/). David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors organized the event with help from people from Louisiana State University. The quality of the speakers was outstanding. They were extremely knowledgeable and well-connected. The meeting was conducted under the Chatham House Rule, which means all the speakers spoke off the record, unless they indicated otherwise. This allows for a more frank discussion. So, much of what you will read from me is my impressions of what I heard, which I cannot attribute to specific speakers. Indeed, some would be at some occupational risk if I did so.

Some of what I write today will be controversial to some readers. That is a risk I will take, as the large majority will find this interesting, or at least I hope so.

From Unmitigated Disaster to Merely Disaster

First, let’s begin with the "good" news. The ecological destruction that was first feared is not going to be as bad as once thought, for a variety of reasons. It is not good, but it is not the unmitigated disaster it could have been.

COCODRIE, LA - JUNE 24: Grass and a boom that are soaked in oil from the BP Deepwater Horizon wellhead are seen in the wetlands on June 24, 2010 in Cocodrie, Louisiana. The Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded on April 20 leaking millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf Of Mexico. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Edward Overton, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Environmental Sciences, LSU, is an expert on oil spills. He was at the Exxon Valdez. The Exxon Valdez (EV) was a big, black, thick tide of oil. The Deepwater Horizon is a much bigger spill: every ten days the amount of the EV spill spewed into the Gulf, from April 20 to July 15. Professor Overton spoke mostly for the record. He is very much a concerned environmentalist, and he is also a very serious scientist.

He reminded us that the Louisiana wetlands are a very important part of the ecological system of the Gulf of Mexico. Oversimplifying, they are the nutrient source for the small animal world which feeds the larger. Without the…
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TLP: Of Course, the Mariner Would Know What to Do

TLP: Of Course, the Mariner Would Know What to Do

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

costner bp oil spillScarier than the Coast Guard?

But, uh, BP, Waterworld was a movie. Oh well, maybe Costner’s oil-sucking machine will do better than what BP has tried so far.

WWL has the story:

BP has given the green light for funding of a device that can separate oil from water.

Development of the machine, which uses a centrifuge to separate the fluids, has been backed by actor Kevin Costner to the tune of $25 million.

John Houghtaling, Costner’s chief partner in the project, told WWL First News that the oil company has ordered 32 of the devices for use in the Gulf of Mexico.

"In a matter of weeks, we can be manufacturing ten of these a week," Houghtaling said. "So we’re hoping by the first of August to have all 32 of these things in the Gulf."

At $500,000 each, that order from BP has Costner well on the way to recouping his investment. And BP has the opportunity to appear visionary if it works and f*^king ridiculous if it doesn’t.

Here’s a movie, not starring Kevin Costner:

Popcorn, anyone? 

Source: Kevin Costner’s anti-oil machines to be deployed 


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Oil Slickonomics

Oil Slickonomics

(Parts 1 – 3, including update) 

Courtesy of David R. Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer, Cumberland Advisors

Oil Slickonomics – Part 1 (May 2, 2010)

Gulf Oil Spill Begins To Reach Land As BP Struggles To Contain Leak

“At its current leak rate of 5,000 barrels of oil per day, the spill could surpass the size of the 1969 Santa Barbara spill by next week. If the leak cannot be contained, it could exceed the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska by mid June.”    Paul Harrison, Environmental Defense Fund

Three scenarios lie ahead.  They rank as bad, worse, and ugliest (the latter being catastrophic and unprecedented).  There is no “good” here.

The Bad. 

Containment chambers are put in place and they catch the outflow from the three ruptures that are currently pouring 200,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf every day.  If this works, it will take until June to complete.  The chambers are 30-foot-high steel configurations that must be placed on the ocean floor at a depth of one mile.  This has never been done before.  If early containment is successful, the damages from this accident will be in the tens of billions.  The cleanup will take years.  The economic impact will be in the five states that have frontal coastline on the Gulf of Mexico: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

The Worse. 

The containment attempts fail and oil spews for months, until a new well can successfully be drilled to a depth of 13000 feet below the 5000-foot-deep ocean floor, and then concrete and mud are injected into the existing ruptured well until it is successfully closed and sealed.  Work on this approach is already commencing.  Timeframe for success is at least three months.  Note the new well will have to come within about 20 feet of the existing point where the original well enters the reservoir at a distance of 3.5 miles from the surface drilling rig.  Damages by this time may be measured in the hundreds of billions.  Cleanup will take many, many years.  Tourism, fishing, all related industries may be fundamentally changed for as much as a generation.  Spread to Mexico and other Gulf geography is possible. 

The Ugliest. 

This spew stoppage takes longer to reach a full closure; the subsequent cleanup may take a decade.  The Gulf becomes a damaged sea for a generation.  The oil slick leaks beyond the western Florida coast, enters…
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Oil Rig Expert Talks About Oil Spill In Gulf; Rain, Choppy Seas Halt Cleanup; Spill Images

Oil Rig Expert Talks About Oil Spill In Gulf; Rain, Choppy Seas Halt Cleanup; Spill Images

Courtesy of Mish 

CNN talks with oil rig expert Bud Danenberger on the rig failure in the gulf and the potential for the oil spill. Click on link to see video. Another video follows.

Oil slick spreads from sunken rig

Rain, Choppy Seas Halt Cleanup

Please consider Rain, choppy seas halt cleanup near sunken oil rig

Choppy seas, strong winds and rain halted Saturday’s cleanup of an oil spill around the massive oil drilling rig that exploded and toppled into the ocean off the Louisiana coast.

Eleven workers are still missing from the Deepwater Horizon rig that sank Thursday about 50 miles from Louisiana’s coast. They are presumed dead.

The bad weather rolled in Friday, bringing with it strong wind, clouds and rain that interrupted efforts to contain the oil spill. Petty Officer Erik Swanson of the Coast Guard said cleanup would resume once the weather cleared.

The cause of Tuesday’s massive blast off the Louisiana coast is unknown. On Friday, Coast Guard officials suspended the three-day search for the missing workers.

An undetermined amount of oil has spilled from the rig, though Swanson said Saturday morning that remotely operated vehicles had not yet detected any leaking oil from the well or rig. However, crews are closely monitoring the rig and well for any more crude that might spill out.

An oil sheen appeared to cover an area about two miles wide and eight miles long Friday afternoon.

BP, which is taking the lead in the cleanup, said it has activated an extensive oil spill response, including the remotely operated vehicles to assess the well and 32 vessels to mop up the spill. The Marine Spill Response Corp., an energy industry cleanup consortium, also brought equipment. …

BP PLC, which leased the Deepwater Horizon, opposes what it says are "extensive prescriptive regulations."

Rough Seas, Thunderstorms Threaten Oil Spill Area

From the Weather Channel: Rough Seas, Thunderstorms Threaten Oil Spill Area

While crews race to contain the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, severe weather and a period of rough seas this weekend will threaten the area as a line of thunderstorms is forecast to move through the region.

Thunderstorms will sweep west to east through the area, bringing thunder, lightning and up to several inches


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Zero Hedge

IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast For 6th Consecutive Time, Warns "Climate Change" Will Hit Economy

Courtesy of Zero Hedge. View original post here.

After the IMF cut its global economic outlook for 2019 to 2.9% in October, the lowest since the financial crisis, and warned that global trade growth would be "close to a standstill", moments ago the IMF once again downgraded its forecast for global GDP for 2020 and 2021, its sixth straight reduction, although in a sliver of optimism, global GDP in 2020 is now expected to post a modest rebound from 2.9% to 3.3%, (down from 3.4% in October) and to 3.4% in 2021 (down from 3.6%) as the IMF says "there are now tentative signs that global growth may be stabilizing, though at subdued levels."

According to the IMF, the downward revision primarily reflects negative surprises to economic a...



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Phil's Favorites

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the GOP's relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: ...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the GOP's relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: ...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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