Posts Tagged ‘coffee’

Shares Of Starbucks Slide, After Company Warns That Commodity Inflation Will Whack Earnings

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal, Business Insider 

Starbucks logo

Image: Starbucks.com

A strong quarter from Starbucks is marred by this jolt of reality

  • The company now expects EPS of $1.43 to $1.47, reflecting 15% to 20% growth over fiscal 2010 non-GAAP EPS on a 52-week basis. No restructuring charges are anticipated in fiscal 2011.
  • The company also expects EPS for fiscal Q2 and Q3 to be in the range of $0.32 to $0.33 in each period, and EPS in fiscal Q4 is expected to be approximately $0.35.
  • Commodity costs, which are now expected to have an unfavorable impact on EPS of approximately $0.20 for the full fiscal year attributable primarily to higher coffee costs, are reflected in the revised EPS target.

Current estimates had been at $1.49. The stock is off about 2% after hours.


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HOWARD SCHUULTZ EXPLAINS HOW QE IS HURTING STARBUCKS

HOWARD SCHUULTZ EXPLAINS HOW QE IS HURTING STARBUCKS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Great commentary right now on CNBC by Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.  He succinctly summarizes what QE is doing.  Coffee prices have risen almost 50% since QE2 rumors first began in August.  Schultz says the price rise is hurting his business and that he will not be passing the costs along to the consumer.  He says the only people benefiting from this price rise are the commodity speculators because the consumer remains too weak to accept the price rise.

So what do we have?  It’s quite literally a ponzi scheme.  We have a Fed that has openly admitted that they want prices “higher than they otherwise should be”.  And speculators are taking them up on their offer by borrowing in dollars and buying any and all inflation hedges.  Meanwhile, the real economic benefit of this all is nil.  In fact, it is doing nothing but generating margin compression, excess volatility in financial markets and promoting the financialization of this country – the same thing that nearly destroyed it just two years ago.

Updated: 


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DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR

DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR

Cup of espresso and cookie

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Your sister sees the future
Like your momma and yourself
You’ve never learned to read or write
There’s no books upon your shelf

And your pleasure knows no limits
Your voice is like a meadowlark
But your heart is like an ocean
Mysterious and dark

One more cup of coffee for the road
One more cup of coffee ‘fore I go
To the valley below – Bob Dylan

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) doesn’t at first glance seem like the type of company that would need to be “mysterious and dark” but when “pleasure knows no limits” it can down into a metaphorical valley.  How does GMCR, engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses, churning out quarterly profits that meet analyst expectations while growing at 61% per year over the past five years, and expected to grow another 35% over the next five years, end up at #18 on the Sabrient VCU short ranking? 

The fact that Michelle Stacy, President of Keurig (patented single cup brewing technology for GMCR), exercised 30,000 options at $6.20 on August 13, 2010 and  simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $30.95 for gross proceeds of $928,500, again exercised 5,000 options at $6.20 on September 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $35.40 for gross proceeds of $177,000 and a week later exercised another 5,000 shares from $6.20-$9.14 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $37 for gross proceeds of $185,000 alone isn’t enough to raise any eyebrows or red flags.

There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation.   However, when a week after the last insider sale the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look a bit more dark and mysterious.   It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look.  When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR

 

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Your sister sees the future
Like your momma and yourself
You’ve never learned to read or write
There’s no books upon your shelf

And your pleasure knows no limits
Your voice is like a meadowlark
But your heart is like an ocean
Mysterious and dark

One more cup of coffee for the road
One more cup of coffee ‘fore I go
To the valley below – Bob Dylan

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) doesn’t at first glance seem like the type of company that would need to be “mysterious and dark” but when “pleasure knows no limits” it can down into a metaphorical valley.  How does GMCR, engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses, churning out quarterly profits that meet analyst expectations while growing at 61% per year over the past five years, and expected to grow another 35% over the next five years, end up at #18 on the Sabrient VCU short ranking? 

The fact that Michelle Stacy, President of Keurig (patented single cup brewing technology for GMCR), exercised 30,000 options at $6.20 on August 13, 2010 and  simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $30.95 for gross proceeds of $928,500, again exercised 5,000 options at $6.20 on September 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $35.40 for gross proceeds of $177,000 and a week later exercised another 5,000 shares from $6.20-$9.14 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $37 for gross proceeds of $185,000 alone isn’t enough to raise any eyebrows or red flags.

There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company's prospects or valuation.   However, when a week after the last insider sale the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company's methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look a bit more dark and mysterious.   It is worth…
continue reading


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TLP: What It Really Means When You Spend $4 On A Latte

TLP: What It Really Means When You Spend $4 On A Latte

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

economic indicators

Unemployment numbers, capital investment figures and housing starts may mean something about where the economy is headed. But those are f^*king boring statistics. Instead, check the length of the line at Starbucks.

WSJ:

As economists look for clues on the direction of consumer spending, they may want to look into how much Americans are willing to spend on their coffee.

Consumers have been more willing to spend since the lows of the recession, but recent declines in retail sales and confidence have sparked worries over whether spending can continue to grow in the second half of the year.

Enter the coffee indicator. A “tell-tale sign of how consumers feel about employment, income and the future is where they buy their coffee and whether they step up for the more expensive concoction,” wrote Majestic Research economist Steve Blitz in a recent research note.

Majestic Research tracks anonymous credit-card data, and can see how much consumers spend by category and store. Blitz broke out the average dollar transactions at Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts. The data show that during the worst of the recession consumers spent less at the two coffee outlets, but as the employment picture started to improve people were willing to spend more per transaction.

Or maybe people are so depressed by the way things are in this economy that the last thing they want first thing in the morning is a sh*^ty cup of coffee. 

 


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Tea, Coffee Drinkers Have Lower Heart Risk

Good news, coffee and tea drinkers. Keep drinking--6 cups of tea or 4 cups of coffee. – Ilene 

Tea, Coffee Drinkers Have Lower Heart Risk

Black coffee in ornate coffee cup

Study Shows 3 to 6 Cups of Tea Daily Linked Reduced Risk of Death From Heart Disease 

By Salynn Boyles
WebMD Health News

June 18, 2010 — People who drink a lot of tea or drink coffee in moderation are less likely to die of heart disease than coffee and tea abstainers, new research suggests.

The finding adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting that coffee and tea help protect against heart disease, but not stroke.

Researchers followed more than 37,000 people in The Netherlands for 13 years in one of the largest and longest studies ever to examine the impact of coffee and tea drinking on heart health.

They found that:

  • People who drank three to six cups of tea per day had a 45% lower risk of death from heart disease than people who drank less than one cup of tea a day.
  • Drinking more than six cups of tea a day was associated with a 36% lower risk of heart disease, compared to drinking less than one cup.
  • People who drank more than two, but no more than four, cups of coffee a day had about a 20% lower risk of heart disease than people who drank more or less coffee or no coffee at all.
  • Moderate coffee consumption was associated with a slight, but not statistically significant, reduction in death from heart disease, but neither coffee nor tea affected stroke risk.

Continue here.>

See Also:

Tea and coffee reduce heart disease risk, study suggests

By Richard Alleyne, Telegraph 

The researchers believe that the health benefits are down to antioxidants found in both drinks which remove damaging free radicals from the body.

The team, whose research is published in Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology: Journal of the American Heart Association, also noted that tea and coffee drinkers have different health behaviours – with more coffee drinkers prone to smoke and have a less healthy diet.

This is the latest research into the relative health benefits of two of the world’s favourite beverages.

It has been claimed that they can reduce risks of some cancers, diabetes, stress and even acne.

But they have also been linked to increased rates of cancer, rheumatoid arthritis and high blood pressure.

Full article here.>


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Phil's Favorites

Stream On '22

 

Stream On ’22

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

Two weeks ago, at the Code Conference, Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel claimed “the total addressable market of content is infinite.” Netflix is spending $17 billion a year to validate his thesis. So far, they’re both right. Since last Friday, Netflix raised subscription prices in 11 countries by as much as 40%. A company’s ability to raise prices is a function of the delta between the price and the perceived value. Nothing better illuminates this delta than the below chart:

Glocal

Squid Game was sourced, written, and produced in South Korea. Within 10 days of its rele...



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Zero Hedge

Notorious Haitian Gang Demands $17 Million Ransom For Kidnapped Missionaries

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A local gang that days ago kidnapped a group of 17 American and Canadian missionaries in Haiti, among them children, is demanding a $17 million ransom to obtain their release, or $1 million for each person.

Since the Saturday kidnapping which drove world headlines, the group has been identified as the powerful and noto...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Chooses Coinbase As "Custody Partner" For Digital Wallet Ahead Of Stablecoin Launch


Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With crypto markets in the green and equities still riding high on their latest comeback rally, Coinbase has just dropped a bombshell update about Facebook's great attempt to seize control of the global monetary supply (or at least a slice of it) thanks to its nearly 3 billion monthly users who would have immediate access to whatever monetization options they...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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