Posts Tagged ‘consumer recovery’

THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

looking at dataCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Mixed bag of data this morning depending on how you want to interpret things.   Retail sales were mixed with discounters performing well and high end retailers performing poorly.  The U.S. consumer continues to keep spending under wraps and is very price conscious when they do buy goods and other items.  This morning’s retail sales data was another sign that the cash for clunkers is going to detract from sales for months to come.  This is by far the most worrisome component of anyone’s v-shaped recovery thesis.  The U.S. consumer is simply not coming back as fast as many would like.

Jobless claims continued to trend sideways at 570K. Continuing claims shot higher to 6.23MM.  This is continuing bad news for U.S. consumers.  570K claims and 6.23MM continuing are truly remarkable figures for an economy that is supposedly on the mend.  This doesn’t bode well for a consumer recovery.  Perhaps most alarming is the sideways movement.  This likely means we’ll see little to no change in overall job losses tomorrow while the market expects a 10% decline in job losses.  Don’t be shocked if we see a figure very close to last month’s 247K….

 THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNINGS DATA

ISM manufacturing was essentially in-line at 48.4. Econoday reports:

But there are definitely signs of improvement that point to a plus 50 reading for the composite index perhaps as soon as next month. Prices jumped 22 points to 63.1, a gain, especially given flat fuel prices, pointing to rising demand for inputs. Business activity, akin to a production index, showed an actual month-to-month increase in August, up more than 5 points to 51.3. This index on the manufacturing side rose above 50 in June, by the way matching that month’s cyclical pivot higher in total U.S. manufacturing sales.

The composite index attempts to anticipate GDP and these results may temper related estimates which have been climbing to as much as 4 percent for next year. But the coincident indicators in this report — the prices index and business activity index — point to ongoing expansion. Yet the headline was weaker than expected, pushing stocks and commodities lower.

All in all, it’s a fairly worrisome set of data for anyone who believes the consumer is going to rebound to their old habits and save the economy.  Thus far, there are little to…
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Zero Hedge

Texas Judge Blocks Governor's Order Halting Transport Of Covid-Positive Illegals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a short-term victory for the Biden administration, a federal judge in Texas blocked an executive order which restricts the transport of infected illegal immigrants on Tuesday, suggesting that the order itself would have the effect of "exacerbating the spread of COVID-19."

U.S. District Judge Kathleen Cardone of El Paso agreed with the Justice Department, which accused Governor Greg Abbott (R) of potentially worsening the spread of the virus - as impeding the transfer of undocumented migrants would prolong the ...



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Phil's Favorites

What are dark patterns? An online media expert explains

 

What are dark patterns? An online media expert explains

It’s not you; many e-commerce websites are difficult to use by design. fizkes/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jasmine McNealy, University of Florida

Dark patterns are design elements that deliberately obscure, mislead, coerce and/or deceive website visitors into making unintended and possibly harmful choices.

Dark patterns can be found in many kinds of sites and are used ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 13 March 2021, 06:40:57 PM

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Comment: @crossbordercap Peak liquidity already evidence from our GLI momentum signal...has 6-9 month lead-time on markets and 15-20 months on economies



Date Found: Friday, 19 March 2021, 10:55:22 PM

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Biotech/COVID-19

Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines

 

Source: Bloomberg, via ZeroHedge

Courtesy of Felix Richter, Statista

As U.S. health officials and the Biden administration desperately try to kickstart the stalling rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in face of the highly contagious Delta variant, President Biden...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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