Posts Tagged ‘correlation’

Charting The -1.0 Correlation Between Stock Prices And Volume

Charting The -1.000 Correlation Between Stock Prices And Volume

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In our day and age, when implied correlation is approaching 1 with each passing day, and when nuanced relationships are ignored, as every correlation somehow immediately becomes causation only to be invalidated, chewed out and left for dead, there is one certain and virtually guaranteed statistical relationship left, that not only persists day after day but has now become its own self-fulfilling prophecy. We speak of course of the (inverse) correlation between stock prices and volume: i.e., "volume up, stocks down; volume down, stocks up." Rinse, repeat, over and over and over. Rarely has this correlation been as pronounced (although we have been discussing it for well over a year) as over the past 12 weeks. Behold.

What this means is that any distributions only occur to the downside, and that the second retail gets suckered into stocks once again, for whatever reason, the selling pressure will again materialize as the algo decides to take advantage of the "sidelined" money and be a better seller into every bid.


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In Other News, Larry King is Selling Divorce Insurance

In Other News, Larry King is Selling Divorce Insurance

Courtesy of Ken Houghton at Angry Bear  

Bomb with Lit Fuse

Many months ago, I quoted the brilliant Janet Tavakoli‘s book Credit Derivatives and Synthetic Structures:   

The trader then went on to tell me that Commercial Bank of Korea would sell credit default protection on bonds issued by the Commercial Bank of Korea.
"That’s very interesting," I countered, "but the credit default option is worthless."
"But people are doing it," persisted the trader.
"That’s because they don’t know what they’re doing," I affirmed. "The correlation between Commercial Bank of Korea and itself is 100 percent. I would pay nothing for that credit protection. It is worthless for this purpose."
The trader mustered his best grammar, chilliest tone, and most authoritative voice: "There are those who would disagree with you." (p. 85)

Apparently, that anonymous trader—or another money-losing risk-mispricing hedge fund manager—is now running The Big C:   

Credit specialists at Citi are considering launching the first derivatives intended to pay out in the event of a financial crisis. The firm has drawn up plans for a tradable liquidity index, known as the CLX, on which products could be structured that allow buyers to hedge a spike in funding costs….

"The great thing about the index is that it hedges your funding costs while being very simple to trade. I believe it will reduce the systemic risk in the industry, akin to how the advent of swaps means people don’t worry about interest-rate exposures any more – they just pay a fee to hedge it," he says.

Because if funding dries up, The Big C will be there to support you!

I thought this was an attempt to make money on a premium, but it isn’t:   

Like a swap, the contracts envisaged by Citi would be entered into without an up-front premium, with money changing hands according to the index’s movements around a fair strike value.

So the model is actually that you pay a higher cost of funds during good times, and during bad times, depend on the ability of your counterparty to make you whole.

When banks do it, it’s called "deposit insurance," and it is valuable because in the worst-case scenario, the U.S. Treasury can print money. Since—the last time I checked—Citigroup …
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In Depth: Correlation…. by Don Fishback

Adam Warner, Daily Options Report chart

Correlation: In statistics, it’s the degree to which two or more variables show a tendency to move relative to each other.  In finance, it’s the tendency of two or more securities, sectors or asset classes to move together.

Correlation values range from -1 to +1.  If one stock moves in perfect lockstep with another, the correlation is going to be +1.  If they move exactly opposite one another, the correlation is going to be -1.

Needless to say, a perfect correlation of + or -1 is nearly impossible.  But recently, we’ve seen a few examples where correlations have climbed to unusually high levels.  The correlations I’m speaking of are the various Sector SPDRs and the S&P 500 SPDR.

Continued at Don Fishback’s Market Update

 


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Zero Hedge

Operation Warp Speed Awards Novavax $1.6 Billion For COVID Vaccine 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With US equity futures under pressure on Tuesday morning - it's not surprising whatsoever that hopium-inspiring vaccine headlines are hitting the tape. 

Novavax was awarded $1.6 Billion in funding via Operation Warp Speed to support "large-scale manufacturing of NVX-COV2373."

  • NOVAVAX ANNOUNCES $1.6 BILLION FUNDING FROM OPERATION WARP SPEED

...

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The Technical Traders

Big Funds to Pull Money OUT of Stocks: 2nd Wave to Hit Economy

Courtesy of Technical Traders

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:

-Big funds to pull money out of markets.

-Falling dollar to really start to benefit gold

-Gold miners showing signs of life.

-$2,000 gold will change people’s mindsets in gold.

-Gold or silver-backed currency will send metals through the roof.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Trades – Click Here

...

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Phil's Favorites

COVID Concerns Send Casino Stocks Tumbling As Recovery Dims

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

As the recovery stalls, states are pausing and or reversing reopenings as coronavirus cases surge. Mobility trends show retail and or corporate workspace activity slowed in late June, sparking new concerns the casino recovery could be coming to an end. 

The S&P500 Casino and Gaming (Sub Ind) is down 1% in late afternoon trading on Monday. From ...



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ValueWalk

New Climate Risk Rating Of Companies For Investors

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

  • New dataset gives investors temperature ratings for 4,000 global companies, based on targets to cut all GHG emissions they are responsible for.
  • Based on a new approach currently being developed by CDP and WWF, CDP temperature ratings can be used for gauging the temperature pathway of investor portfolios, funds and stock indices.
  • Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi first to use the rating as part of its ESG analysis, and for the monitoring of four global multisector equity funds[1].

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

CD...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shangai Index Soars Higher, Testing 11-Year Breakout Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Shanghai Index (SSE) about to experience a long-term breakout and send the world a bullish message?

An 11-year breakout test is in play that will answer this question.

The Shanghai index trend continues to send a bullish message, as it has created a series of higher lows for the past 24-years above line (1).

This long-term support line was tested at the March lows at (2) and it held.

The rally off the lows has the index testing dual resistance at (3).

Will this important index succeed in breaking out? If it does at (3), it will send a very bu...



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Biotech/COVID-19

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, 'vaccine nationalism' threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

 

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, ‘vaccine nationalism’ threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

Are we really all in this together? ‘Vaccine nationalism’ must be addressed to ensure equitable distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine. (Pixabay)

Courtesy of Joel Lexchin, University of Toronto

At the end of June, the United States government announced that it had ...



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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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