Posts Tagged ‘CRB’

Market Commentary From David Rosenberg: Just Call It “Deflationary Growth”

Market Commentary From David Rosenberg: Just Call It "Deflationary Growth"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

If the way to classify the September stock move as "a confounding ramp on disappointing economic news" gets you stumped, here is Rosenberg to provide some insight. Just call is "deflationary growth or something like that." And as for the NBER’s pronouncement of the recession being over, Rosie has a few words for that as well: "this recovery, with its sub 1% pace of real final sales, goes down as the weakest on record."

It’s a real commentary that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) decision on the historical record mattered more than the actual economic data. The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index is the latest data point in an array of September releases coming in below expected:

  • Philly Fed index: actual -0.7 versus 0.5 expected
  • Empire manufacturing index: actual 4.14 versus 8 expected
  • NAHB: actual 13 versus 14 expected
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: actual 66.6 versus 70 expected

It’s early days yet, and these are only surveys, but it would seem as though the economy remains very sluggish as we head towards the third-quarter finish line.

It is truly difficult to come up with an explanation for the breakout, which in turn makes it difficult to ascertain its veracity. If we are seeing a re-assessment or risk or a major asset allocation move, then why did Treasury yields rally 4bps (and led lower by the “real rate”, which is a bond market proxy for “real growth expectations”)?

If it was a pro-growth move, why did copper sell off and the CRB flatten? And where is the volume? Still lacking? So we have a breakout with little or no confirmation. All we can see is that many sentiment measures have swung violently to the upside in recent weeks and the VIX index is all the way back to 21x —- somewhat contrary negative signposts for the bulls.

But the price action is undeniable and the bulls are in fact winning the battle in September, a typically negative seasonal month, after a bloody August. The fact that bonds rallied yesterday is a tad bizarre and perhaps the explanation, if there is one, is that the equity market is enamoured with the cash leaving the corporate balance sheet in favour of dividend payouts and share buybacks and


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Federally Frightened Friday

The Fed raised the discount rate – Big Deal! 

As I said in my Weekly Wrap-Up, recessions are for wimps and kudos to the Fed for finally pulling out the stick after all the soft talking they've been doing.  Meanwhile, I do not see what all the fuss is about – I did the math for Members last night and banks borrow about $89Bn at the discount window on a good day and 0.25% of $87Bn is a grand total of $22M – this is NOT going cause the fall of Western Civilization people!  What it does do is stop making the Fed the lender of first resort, which was never supposed to be their function in the first place

The MSM should be more concerned with the end of the TALF, which is where the Fed buys up toxic assets from the banks at face value (we'll all be paying for that later) and they just announced that the Fed's holding of Mortgage-Backed Securities went over the $1Tn mark yesterday, bringing the Fed's Balance Sheet to $2.25Tn of very questionable assets that they've bought for us from the banksters. 

Speaking of banksters – Kudos to Matt Taibbi for his excellent Wall Street’s Bailout Hustle.  As I said to Members, if it wasn't for Matt and Dylan Ratigan, I would have to be writing about this stuff instead of following the markets.  Thank goodness there are a few top-notch people investigating this nonsense with the ability to communicate their findings in a way that makes it interesting:

The nation’s six largest banks — all committed to this balls-out, I drink your milkshake! strategy of flagrantly gorging themselves as America goes hungry — set aside a whopping $140 billion for executive compensation last year, a sum only slightly less than the $164 billion they paid themselves in the pre-crash year of 2007.

The question everyone should be asking, as one bailout recipient after another posts massive profits — Goldman reported $13.4 billion in profits last year, after paying out that $16.2 billion in bonuses and compensation — is this: In an economy as horrible as ours, with every factory town between New York and Los Angeles looking like those hollowed-out ghost ships we see on History Channel documentaries like Shipwrecks of the Great


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Global Chart Reveiw Shows Key Inflection Point

Chart Review by Michael Clark

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes

SO, IS THIS FINALLY THE 'REAL' CORRECTION?

What a week it was.  The Bears gave the Bulls some payback.  Obama got a wake-up call.  And the banks got a well-deserved scare (and we hope they will get a well-deserved hair cut).

The markets reacted, as one might expect, with selling.  Actually, the selling began before the Massachusetts election and before Obama sent a shot across the Goldman Sach's bow.  Last week Intel announced surprisingly strong earnings; and the stock started up and then sank.  For the past half-year investor behavior had been the reverse: a buying spree for any stock that did not lose as much as it might have — beating 'Street expectations' that had been dumbed down over and over again during a quarter so that the company could report 'surprising' strength.  Suddenly, now, even good earnings are being greeted with selling.  Then came Massachusetts — wasn't that a Bee Gees' song?
 

All the lights went out in Massachusetts

Anyway, readers want to know where the markets stand today, after the sell-off this week.  My view of it — my 'view', not my gut-feeling — is that we are, so far, merely correcting from an over-extended rally.  This rally has been bizarre, to say the least.  This has been a 'fear rally' — usually the 'fear' side of the equation is when selling comes in, 'greed' driving the expansion.  But fear of systemic failure has driven this rally; and Ben Bernannke has been the captain sailing the 'Boat of Fear',   Ben's logic — that more debt will solve the insolvency crisis — has a shadow side, the logic that a collapse in stock prices will result in systemic failure, international chaos, revolution, repression…made him believe that preservation of the status quo was requiired, at any price.  A 'make-believe' recovery could be jump-started, perhaps, if the Fed could just stimulate (and simulate) another asset-bubble.  After all – that is how his mentor and predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had become the darling of the coctail party crowd, leading member of Time Magazine's 'Committee to Save the World';
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Friday – Is the Dollar Going UUP?

Is it time to buy the buck? 

As noted by Andrew Wilkinson on Wednesday, there was a huge volume surge in UUP call options, the ETF that tracks the US Dollars index value, ahead of the FOMC statement.  155,000 November call options were bought at the $23 strike level and another 155,000 were purchased at the December $23 strikes.  The November calls came in at around .15 and are now .25 (up 66% in one day on UUP) and the December calls were executed around .25 and are now .40 (UUP up 60%) – this is not bad for a day's work but was it just a day's work or are we betting on a trend?

As you can see from David Fry's chart, it's not just the 300,000+ options (controlling 30M shares) that have been trading bullishly around the dollar – there has been a stunning surge of volume buying that has built up since mid-October as the dollar index skates along our own target low of 75.

So strong was the demand for shares of UUP that we noted in Member Chat that the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) was halted pending clearance of their request to register another 100M shares "in order to meet investment demand." 

There’s been a lot more interest in this ETF because investors are using it as a hedge on the dollar,” said David Stec, an ETF options trader at Group One Trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange floor. “Yesterday, with the amount of options volume they saw, they probably have to add some shares. The ETF is based on the dollar versus a basket of currencies, so if there aren’t enough shares it might trade at a premium.”

The Dollar trading at a premium?  Surely you can't be serious!  Well, I am serious and don't call me Shirley…  While this may be contrary to what you've been hearing in the MSM, where dollar bashing has become a popular blood sport, it's the main reason we've been having trouble buying into this commodity-led rally, which has been primarily based on the 15% pounding the Dollar has taken since March.  As I often point out to members, if you adjust the S&P to reflect a real currency, like the Euro or the Yen,…
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A Quick Look at the Weekly Commodity CRB

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A Quick Look at the Weekly Commodity CRB Aug 21

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

With markets at potentially major turning points – one way or the other – let’s take a quick look at the CRB (Commodity) Index for a possible clue.

One almost has to look at the weekly chart to appreciate the price damage broad commodities took in 2008 – it was stellar.

Now, price is forming a counter-rally against last year’s plunge, but price has retraced upwards into a critical resistance area that needs to be addressed.

The $260/$270 Index area reflects the falling 50 week EMA along with the weekly upper Bollinger Band line – both of which are expected to hold as resisance (until breached convincingly).

If this week closes about the same index level as we’re seeing on this chart, then we’ll have formed a doji candle at this overhead potential resistance area, which furthers the odds that resistance will hold.

Then again, if this level is broken to the upside, we would have an “Open Air” scenario where all levels of ‘obvious’ weekly resistance would be broken which would likely result in a momentum move up to the $320 level.

As a note, key Fibonacci price levels to watch are as follows (not labeled):

38.2%:  $305
50.0%:  $335

Let’s see how buyers/sellers react at this technical (price) level for additional clues to what’s in store for the future.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
 


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Zero Hedge

America's Housing Future Remains Murky At Best - Part 1

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

The housing market in America is not one but many markets that generally share a few common threads. In America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations control the housing narrative. Housing prices in Canada have been on fire for years now we are seeing this type of buying frenzy spreading to America.  This has allowed some buyers to ignore the reality that soaring lumb...



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Phil's Favorites

A Giant Consumptive Force

 

A Giant Consumptive Force

Courtesy of John Mauldin

The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations.

While the live events are mostly over now, your SIC pass gives you full video, downloadable audio, slide presentations and (soon) written transcripts of every session. They are all still quite fresh and relevant, so don’t feel like you missed the opportunity. (Note: I’ve never heard a greater discussion of inflation and/or deflation from so many perspectives. We will go into that in detail in the coming weeks.) ...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Herd immunity appears unlikely for COVID-19, but CDC says vaccinated people can ditch masks in most settings

 

Herd immunity appears unlikely for COVID-19, but CDC says vaccinated people can ditch masks in most settings

A woman walks by a sign in New York City amid the coronavirus pandemic on March 30, 2021. Noam Galai/Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

When COVID-19 first began spreading, public health and medical experts began talking about the need for the U.S. to reach herd immunity to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Experts have estimated that between 60% and 90% of people in the U.S. w...



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Digital Currencies

Dogecoin Soars After Musk Tweets "Working With Doge Developers To Improve System Efficiency"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Just when you thought things couldn't get any more surreal after the past 24 hours, moments ago Elon Musk, who last night rejected bitcoin because its mining is "bad for the environment" as it consumes a lot of electricity (just wait until Elon discovers how all those rare earth metals that are in every electric car are mined, or what those electric cars run on), moments ago Musk poked the hornets nest again, and shortly after tweeting that 'it's high time there was a carbon tax'...

It is high time there was a carbon tax!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 13, 2021

...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
...

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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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