Posts Tagged ‘credit based economy’

US Consumer Credit Shows Steepest Contraction in Over 5 Decades

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US Consumer Credit Shows Steepest Contraction in Over 5 Decades

Breakfast with Dave, at the cafeCourtesy of Mish

Please consider Monday morning’s Breakfast With Dave regarding an unprecedented drop in consumer credit.

No Credit Where Credit Is Due

U.S. consumer credit outstanding fell $10 billion in June, the fifth decline in a row during which the debt balance has shrunk $60 billion or 5.5% at an annual rate — both figures are unprecedented. As the chart below shows, the YoY trend, at -2.8%, is also running at its steepest contractionary rate in over five decades.

Welcome to the new paradigm of savings, asset liquidation and debt repayment — the era of consumer frugality. After 20 years of living beyond their means, American consumers will be spending the next several years living below their means, and no, this will not be the end of the world, but it will put a firm ceiling on overall demand growth for some time to come.

Consumer Credit Outstanding

consumer deleveraging

10-Year Treasuries vs. Consumer Credit

CPI vs. Consumer Inflation

Consumer Spending vs. Consumer Credit

Record Slide In Bank Lending

We just received the monthly data on commercial bank lending in July and it showed a record contraction of $64.0 billion, which is the equivalent of a 12.0% annualized decline. This was the third month in a row of declining bank credit to households and businesses during which the contraction has totaled $149.0 billion (again, an unprecedented 9.0% decline at an annual rate). We are not sure if a recovery can be sustained without credit creation — we haven’t seen it happen in the past, but maybe there is a new paradigm of a credit-less recovery awaiting us.

Thanks to Dave Rosenberg for the above series of 5 stunning charts that highlight the inflation/deflation debate. The key take away is those charts all show deflation.

Indeed, in a credit based economy a better title for chart 3 might be "Credit IS Inflation".

With that thought, you may wish to review the Fiat World Mathematical Model that explains why the money multiplier lag theory fails and why it’s credit, not base money supply that is important.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
 

Photo:  Morning Glory Coffee Shop, originally posted to Flickr, was uploaded to Commons using Flickr upload bot by Nguy?n Thanh Quang. License at Wikimedia here.

 


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Zero Hedge

UMich Confidence Collapses As "Hope" Crashes Most Since 2012

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Echoing Bloomberg's sentiment indicator, University of Michigan's survey shows Americans' confidence collapsed heading into January with 'expectations' plunging to Oct 2016 lows.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary January sentiment index fell to 90.7 from the prior month, missing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The measures of current conditionsand expectations both declined to the lowest since President Donald Trump's election in 2016.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Phil's Favorites

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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ValueWalk

The SEC's Unconstitutional Conditions Doctrine?

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Princeton, NJ – A new commentary by Crow & Cushing, the SEC’s Unconstitutional Condition, examines a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the SEC’s practice of prohibiting defendants who settle civil charges with the SEC from making any public statement, even an indirect one, which takes issue with the validity of the SEC’s charges.

By U.S. Government [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsAccording to one study, the SEC settles ...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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