Posts Tagged ‘Credit Suisse’

CREDIT SUISSE: 5 REASONS TO STAY BULLISH NEAR-TERM

CREDIT SUISSE: 5 REASONS TO STAY BULLISH NEAR-TERM

Smiling Businessman Looking Down at a Toy Bull on a Table and Imitating Its Horns

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Credit Suisse recently reiterated their call to buy the dips (see here for the original call).   Despite being bearish overall on 2010, they maintain that the first half of 2010 could be a fairly constructive year for equities (see their full year outlook here).   In the near-term, they continue to like stocks due to 5 primary reasons.

Over the last few months the markets have been roiled by sovereign debt fears, China tightening fears, Fed actions, and bank regulation.  Credit Suisse says these fears are all overblown.

First, they say the fears in Greece are substantially overblown and will not lead to a global bond funding crisis:

1) Fears of a global sovereign credit crisis are overdone: US, Japan and German bond yields have fallen, as has gold (hardly the sign of a funding crisis). The problems in peripheral Europe are akin to those of California in the US: Severe deflation is required, but the problem is confined. A global bond funding crisis will not be seen, in our opinion, until private sector credit growth returns (probably in 2011)—government interest payments as a % of GDP are still low, at 1.3% of GDP in the US. The risk, in our view, is that the UK could end up with a minority government, which might bring forward a UK funding crisis.

Second, CS says the fears about China are overdone.  Growth remains robust in China.  Other countries can only wish to have such a problem.  As of now, it is not a major concern:

2) Worries about China  tightening:  We believe China is likely to grow at around 10% until there is major economic, as opposed to financial, overheating, which would be reflected in a sharp acceleration in wage growth and export price inflation.

A lot has been said about the end of quantitative easing and what will occur in bond markets when the Fed stops buying.  CS says demand for bonds will remain high regardless of the Fed’s actions.

3) The end of QE: We think banks will replace central banks as


continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Polar bear

Strategists at Credit Suisse entered 2010 with a very cautious tone and an outlook similar to our own – 2010 would be a year of halves.  The first half would be a continuation of the trends that helped the market surge in 2009 while headwinds would build near H2 2010 and result in market declines.   The recent downturn in stocks hasn’t changed their outlook and they view the sell-off as a buying opportunity (see JP Morgan’s similar outlook here as well as Raymond James’ outlook here).

The team’s tactical indicators are mildly bullish at current levels and quickly approaching levels that were buys in 2009:

Our tacticals are mildly supportive of equities:

Interestingly, the % of nyse stocks trading above their 10-week MA (currently at 32%) is around similar levels where market bottomed during recent corrections (end of Oct it troughed at 30%, in early July 09 at 37%). Normally a buy signal is when this indicator falls below 20% but perhaps most of the correction has already occurred??

CS1 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Sentiment data also supports their bullish thesis as the majority of investors remain net bearish:

CS2 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Like us, Credit Suisse sees continuing strong trends in the earnings picture which makes it very difficult to formulate a thesis for a substantial decline in stocks.  Credit Suisse notes the very strong trend in earnings expectations, the high level of “better than expected” earnings and the uptrend in the upgrade cycle.  Bespoke recently noted the outperformance on Monday’s over the last few months.  This has been largely due to the upgrade cycle.  Yesterday alone, there were 41 upgrades of S&P 500 firms versus 13 downgrades according to Briefing.com.  One of the primary reasons we focus a great deal of our research at TPC on the earnings cycle is due to the high influence analysts have on the market.  According to Credit Suisse, analysts on average, upgrade stocks for 11 months prior to the beginning of a new uptrend in the bull market cycle.  This means we could see a strong continued trend in upgrades until Q2 of 2010 – roughly around the same time where we believe earnings outperformance will…
continue reading


Tags: , , ,




Credit Suisse Halted, Announces Settlement And $536 Million Fine

Credit Suisse Halted, Announces Settlement And $536 Million Fine (CS)

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock/Business Insider

General Views Of Credit Suisse In Frankfurt

It appears to be a settlement and a massive fine being paid to Andrew Cuomo. 

Here’s the full announcement:

Credit Suisse confirms that it is in advanced settlement discussions with the New York County District Attorney’s Office, the United States Department of Justice, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC"). The discussions relate to a previously disclosed investigation into US dollar payments during the period 2002 to April 2007 involving parties that are subject to US economic sanctions. As part of the settlement, Credit Suisse is likely to pay a total of USD 536 million combined.

Credit Suisse has previously disclosed the investigation by US authorities and that it was conducting an internal review into certain US dollar payments involving countries, persons or entities that may be subject to US economic sanctions. In December 2005, Credit Suisse decided to exit the business in question and subsequently proactively undertook an extensive independent investigation into the Zurich-based payment activity and other practices, working closely and constructively with regulators and US authorities. Credit Suisse’s internal review has now been concluded and discussed with these and other government authorities including Credit Suisse’s main regulator, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, FINMA.

Credit Suisse is committed to the highest standards of integrity and regulatory compliance in all its businesses, and takes this matter extremely seriously. Credit Suisse has enhanced its procedures to prevent practices of this type from occurring in the future. In particular, Credit Suisse:

  • Terminated its business with all OFAC-sanctioned parties in 2006, including closing its representative office in Tehran;
  • Enhanced its global compliance program by, among other things, appointing a global sanctions compliance officer, establishing competency centres and designating individuals responsible for coordinating and monitoring compliance with sanctions programs and enhancing its global policies, procedures and employee training programs, which will continue to be regularly reviewed for effectiveness; and
  • Enhanced sanctions filters screening designed to cover incoming and outgoing transactions.

While Credit Suisse had recorded provisions for this matter through the end of the third quarter of 2009, it expects to record an additional pre-tax charge of CHF 445 million in the current quarter, which is estimated to be approximately CHF 360 million after tax.

 


Tags:




THE RALLY IS COMING TO AN END

THE RALLY IS COMING TO AN END

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Great interview here with Robert Parker, Vice Chairman of Asset Management at Credit Suisse.  He believes the market rally is due for a 10%+ pullback heading into November:

 


Tags: , , ,




CORRUPTION: Credit Suisse’s Charter MUST BE REVOKED

CORRUPTION: Credit Suisse’s Charter MUST BE REVOKED 

Credit SuisseCourtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker

Again, "WTF"?

A Swiss bank that used its Cayman Islands’ branch to engage in what a US federal judge has branded “predatory lending practices” is being investigated by the US authorities.

Senior officials of Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest bank, are facing claims that they pocketed millions of dollars by dishing out loans that were impossible to repay.

Impossible to repay? What’s the judge say about this?

Credit Suisse has now been accused of loaning the money in an unorthodox and lucrative deal for the bank that federal bankruptcy judge Ralph B. Kirscher described in May this year as a case of “naked greed” that “shocks the conscience of this court.”

This was a bunch of low-level employees, or even middling staff, right?  Uh, wrong:

Brady Dougan, the Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse First Boston, and Hans-Ulrich Doerig, Chairman of the Board of Directors, received the subpoenas along with past and current Executive Board officials and Credit Suisse’s Board.

“Bank officials have testified that Credit Suisse created a Cayman Islands ‘branch’ in 2005 to sell these loans.

“In reality, there was no phone and no staff in the bank’s phony branch.

“They used the Caymans to circumvent US banking laws and to issue inflated loans that Credit Suisse executives called a ‘gravy train’ in internal memos.“

What?!

The allegations here are that this institution’s directors, including the Chairman of the Board and its Chief Executive Officer were both involved in setting up a branch in the Cayman Islands that had no staff and no phones?

This makes two Swiss banks.

First we had UBS that ran a "private bank" for "special" US Citizens who didn’t want to pay their taxes and which, it is alleged, actually conspired with some of them to do things like hide diamonds in toothpaste tubes while crossing the US Border so as to secret out wealth without the IRS knowing about it.

Some few thousand (about 10%) of those "wealthy" US citizens were threatened with being "outed" (and presumably will be) but the rest…. well, there’s no enforcement there, right?

Now we have a judge that has said something…
continue reading


Tags: , ,




NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!  

NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

bull, bull marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Credit Suisse analysts must have been furious Monday morning.  After working all weekend on a brand new upgrade of the U.S. equity markets they needed one more day to touch up the report before issuance.  Lo and behold, Government Sachs beat them to the punch with their own upgrade of U.S. equity markets on Monday morning.  Poor guys because it’s one heck of a good report.  Credit Suisse not only upgraded their outlook on U.S. stocks (new S&P target of 1050), but issued an excellent piece on why this bull run is unlikely to be similar to past bull markets.

They list 6 reasons to be less optimistic in the long-term and why this will almost certainly be a W shaped recession (they currently believe we are on the first V so expect a double dip down in 2010). The 6 reasons will sound awfully familiar to regular readers, but CS does a nice job of condensing them:

1) There is over $7 TRILLION in excess leverage in the system:

cs1 excess leverage is $7 trillion

2) Global housing prices are still too high:

cs2 IMF house price overvaluation

3) U.S. housing inventories could hinder home prices for another 2-3 years:

cs31 US excess housing inventory

4) Global growth going forward is likely to be below trend:

1.   a lower investment share of GDP tends to lead to lower investment growth;
2.   the demographics are clearly deteriorating (the working age population is declining in Europe from next year and is contracting by nearly 1% pa in Japan)
3.   there is more red tape / regulation.

cs4 oecd estimates of potential growth

5) Margins are likely to contract further:

1.   corporate tax rates may have to rise
2.   emerging markets are causing commodity prices (the input costs for developed market companies) to be structurally higher.
3.   more red-tape / regulation.

6) There is no big cap bull market theme:

Each bull market typically needs a different driver. We believe that the new key themes of the new bull market are the Non-Japan Asian consumer and technology.  Yet, European equities don’t have strong exposure to this theme.

Source: Credit Suisse

Photo: Toro Bronce, the statue in Downtown Manhattan in honor of the Bull Financial Markets, originally posted to Flickr by James & Vilija at http://flickr.com/photos/15238715@N00/224568741, at Wikipedia.

 


Tags: , , , ,




Credit Suisse Deemed “Predatory” Lender, Gets The Equitable Subordination Axe

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse Deemed "Predatory" Lender, Gets The Equitable Subordination Axe

In the latest twist of the Yellowstone Club bankruptcy saga, presiding Judge Kirscher ruled that investment bank Credit Suisse which had lent $375 million in first lien debt to the bankrupt club had engaged in predatory lending, and the resulting lien backing the loan would become subordinated equitably subordinated to virtually everyone including unsecured creditors. Can’t be good for those recovery prospects. According to court filings, the smart CS lending syndicate had lent the money to Yellowstone without even requesting audited financials, among other "curious" decisions, all in the pursuit of the $7.5 million lender fee.

Here is what Kirscher had to say about this rare precedent:

"The only plausible explanation for Credit Suisse’s actions is that it was simply driven by the fees it was extracting from the loans it was selling, and letting the chips fall where they may. The only equitable remedy to compensate for Credit Suisse’s overreaching and predatory lending practices in this instance is to subordinate Credit Suisse’s first lien position to that of CrossHarbor’s super-priority debtor-in-possession financing and to subordinate such lien to that of the allowed claims of unsecured creditors."

What is hilarious is the disclosure of how CS determined the transaction fee in YC case: turns out the ultimate fee depended, literally, on a coin toss: CS had asked for a 3% transaction fee, while Timmy Blixseth wanted 2%, and the two settled the matter by flipping a coin to decide the final rate (Tim won). It will be interesting, as many more comparable criminal cases emerge and like disclosure swims to the surface, just how underwriters sat down with issuers in the current market squeeze to determine not only what the fees should be (roll of the die? tea leaves?), but how to skrew the shorts as much as possible. We will be waiting and watching.


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Audi Will Be All Electric By 2026

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The death march for internal combustion engine vehicles continues...

Audi has been the latest automaker to express its intent to completely end building combustion engine vehicles, stating this week that they would stop building gas and diesel vehicles by 2026. There will also be no more hybrid vehicles from that point forward, the automaker said. 

Audi board chairman Markus Duesmann offered the deadline to company executives and labor representatives this week, according to The Drive. T...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

A Reluctant Optimist

 

A Reluctant Optimist

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

Optimists are overrated. With Big Tech, Covid-19, or Putin, would we have been better off listening to the optimists or the pessimists? People think it takes optimism to be an entrepreneur. Not so — in my case, it just required the self-awareness to know I didn’t have the skills to succeed in a big company. Optimism is required to be an early stage investor, however. I typically invest in later stage growth firms, as my reaction to every startup idea is “there’s NFW that will work.”

I believe pessimists make better operators. I, no joke, sit awake at night and imagine everything that ca...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Counterfeiting - the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

 

Counterfeiting – the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

Counterfeit vaccines, testing kits, and vaccine passports are undermining the global fight against COVID-19. AnaLysiSStudiO/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Mark Stevenson, Lancaster University

While the word “counterfeit” may conjure up images of fake cash and knock-off handbags, the pharmaceutical industry – and with it, the fight against COVID-19 – has been significantly affected by illicit goods.

In a major operation, Interpol recently ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

Sign up now!






...

more from Chart School

Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

more from Politics

Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

more from Promotions

Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.