Posts Tagged ‘crude prices’

Oil Traders Blind To The Fact That America Is Kicking Its Oil Habit Fast

Oil Traders Blind To The Fact That America Is Kicking Its Oil Habit Fast

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Boy (8-9) holding bird coated in oil

Oil traders appear blind to the fact that developed nations’ oil consumption growth has most likely ended forever, given that oil prices remain pretty high historically speaking.

Some oil bulls might be betting that a global recovery will generate sufficient emerging-markets oil demand to make up for the developed world consumption growth and increase total global demand at the same time.

Let’s just hope that substantial U.S. oil consumption growth isn’t part of their equation. That’s because there’s increasing evidence that the U.S. economy has already made a critical shift towards spending less on fuel, as recently highlighted in Stephen Schork’s Schork Report, via Alphaville. As he puts it: oil demand has been "wiped off the map" and it’s never coming back.

Mr. Schork’s chart below shows how at similar gasoline prices in the past (in orange, look at 2005 – 2007 vs. 2009), Americans used to spend a higher percentage of income on gas (Look at PCE Gasoline/Nondurable Goods, the white circles).

Thus a sharply lower percentage of expenditure, as just happened, isn’t simply due to the fact that gas prices fell since early 2008. It’s also likely caused by Americans using less gas.

Chart

Schork: "Without this end demand for product, crude prices are fundamentally crippled on the upper bound. Whether the bulls realize that (and yesterday’s price action indicates they don’t) is another matter. More to the point, the bulls probably do realize how bad the fundamentals are for crude oil, but they probably just don’t care."

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Phil's Favorites

Is Facebook today's Compuserve? How Libra could hasten its demise

 

Is Facebook today's Compuserve? How Libra could hasten its demise

Will Libra be Facebook’s downfall? (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Marc-David L. Seidel, University of British Columbia

When Mark Zuckerberg was five years old in 1989, two dominant players in telecommunications made a big announcement.

Compuserve (the first major commercial online service provider) and MCI Mail (one of the first commercial e-mail service providers) introduced commercial e-mail relays to the public internet. These relays connected their centralized networks to the public, outside of their direct con...



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Zero Hedge

Yuan, Stocks Erase Mnuchin Ramp

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The overnight ramp in yuan and US equity futures - on the back of Mnuchin's comments - has been entirely erased as the algos were taught that tenses matter...

...a deal that WAS 90% done is different from a deal that IS 90% done... ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Metals Bulls Praying This Indicator Does Not Peak Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold has been strong of late as the US Dollar has been weak. This combo has driven the Gold/Dollar ratio to a key price zone and momentum level, that looks to be important to metals bulls.

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 6-years. The long-term trend is down, while the trend over the past 3-years is pretty much flat (sideways trading range).

The rally of late has the ratio testing the 2018 highs as well as its 38% Fibonacci retracement l...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Say Homebuilder Environment Still Looks Good For Lennar

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) stock remains attractive in the long term, sell-side analysts said Wednesday after investors sent the share price on a post-earnings roller-coaster ride.

The homebuilder had a strong ...



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ValueWalk

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

 

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

Courtesy of Vikas Shukla, ValueWalk

Pexels / Pixabay

The trend of vegan food has been gathering momentum in the last few years as people become more health conscious. They have also begun to realize the environmental impact of raising meat for human consumption. According to PETA, it takes an estimated 1...



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Chart School

Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT). 

To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The c...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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