Posts Tagged ‘Dave Rosenberg’

3rd Quarter GDP +2.5% : Is That All?

3rd Quarter GDP +2.5% : Is That All?

cold water splashCourtesy of Mish

Yesterday Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher threw a little cold water on the V-shaped recovery madness everyone seems to be buying into these days.

Please consider Fed’s Fisher: GDP Growth In Third Quarter Likely Lower Than Reported.

Speaking at a conference in Tyler, Texas, Fisher said he was willing to venture that the increase would not be "as robust as originally reported."

He did say, however, that the growth rate would still be positive – though it would be closer to a rate of 2.5 percent – and that growth would also be positive for the fourth quarter.

Even though he said economic growth would be positive, Fisher cautioned that the high unemployment rates would cause recovery from last year’s financial crisis to be slow.

Managing Expectations

Got the idea the Fed is attempting to manage expectations? If so, that is precisely what the Fed is doing.

When asked about the dollar at a question and answer session following his speech, Fisher said that lower interest rates have not increased the risk of the dollar declining in value. Rather, he said, the weakening of the dollar was due to other major currencies entering the world’s economic system.

"You’d expect with more participants that there might be some kind of rebalancing," but such evolution would be orderly and gradual, he said.

Let me get this straight: The dollar is falling because "other major currencies [are] entering the world’s economic system".

Is he serious? What this proves is these guys absolutely cannot think beyond their prepared remarks.

The Effect of Stimulus

A $trillion in stimulus (not counting bank bailouts) and other stimulus measures not labeled "stimulus" because everyone is getting tired of the word, only got us 2.5%-3.0% of GDP growth.

Dave Rosenberg was talking about GDP in today’s Breakfast with Dave

Heightened appetite for risk does not mean that credit problems have gone away as we see the global speculative-grade corporate default rate rise 12 basis points in October, to 9.71%. And Fitch just published a report indicating that the U.S. banks can expect to see 10% of their $1.1 trillion of direct commercial real estate loans default and that the regional banks can expect to see “significant” cuts in their credit ratings.

DOWNGRADE TO GROWTH FORECASTS?


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How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?

How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?

rabbits left in hatCourtesy of Mish

As amazing as it seems, inquiring minds are interested in hats and rabbit, more specifically, "How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?"

Dave Rosenberg was rabbits and hats in Friday’s Lunch With Dave, NOT LABOUR’S DAY.

While the Obama economics team is pulling rabbits out of the hat to revive autos and housing, there is nothing they can really do about employment; barring legislation that would prevent companies from continuing to adjust their staffing requirements to the new world order of credit contraction. While nonfarm payrolls were basically in line with the consensus, declining 216,000 in August, there were downward revisions of 49,000 and the details were simply awful. The fact that 65% of companies are still in the process of cutting their staff loads is quite disturbing — even manufacturing employment fell 63,000 in August, to its lowest level since April 1941 (!), despite the inventory replenishment in the automotive sector and all the excitement over the recent 50+ print in the ballyhooed ISM index. The fact that temp agency employment is still declining, albeit at a slower pace, alongside the flat workweek and jobless claims stuck at 570,000, are all foreshadowing continued weakness in the labour market ahead. Until we see signs of a sustained turnaround in the jobs market all bets are off over the sustainability of any economic recovery.

What was really key were the details of the Household Survey, which provide a rather alarming picture of what is happening in the labour market.

First, employment in this survey showed a plunge of 392,000, but that number was flattered by a surge in self-employment (whether these newly minted consultants were making any money is another story) as wage & salary workers (the ones that work at companies, big and small) plunged 637,000 — the largest decline since March (when the stock market was testing its lows for the cycle). As an aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes a number from the Household survey that is comparable to the nonfarm survey (dubbed the population and payroll-adjusted Household number), and on this basis, employment sank — brace yourself — by over 1 million, which is unprecedented. We shall see if the nattering nabobs of positivity discuss that particularly statistic in their post-payroll assessments; we are not exactly holding our


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Phil's Favorites

Ruth Bader Ginsburg helped shape the modern era of women's rights - even before she went on the Supreme Court

Supreme Court Justice RBG passed away from complications of metastatic pancreatic cancer yesterday. RIP, the Notorious RBG.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg helped shape the modern era of women's rights – even before she went on the Supreme Court

Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg paying a courtesy call on Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., left, and Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., in June 1993, before her confirmation hearing for the Supreme Court. AP/Marcy Nighswander

Courtesy of Jonathan Entin, Case Western Reserve University

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday, the Supreme Court announced.

Chief Justice John Roberts ...



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Politics

Ruth Bader Ginsburg helped shape the modern era of women's rights - even before she went on the Supreme Court

Supreme Court Justice RBG passed away from complications of metastatic pancreatic cancer yesterday. RIP, the Notorious RBG.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg helped shape the modern era of women's rights – even before she went on the Supreme Court

Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg paying a courtesy call on Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., left, and Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., in June 1993, before her confirmation hearing for the Supreme Court. AP/Marcy Nighswander

Courtesy of Jonathan Entin, Case Western Reserve University

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday, the Supreme Court announced.

Chief Justice John Roberts ...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Zero Hedge

The Ultra Wealthy Are Selling Billions Of Dollars In Stock

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As the market has "rebounded" off its lows back in March, the world's super wealthy are jumping at the chance to offload billions of dollars in stock while global central banks - and most notably the Federal Reserve - keeps a bid under the market and acts as a Mr. Magoo-like counterparty.

Many investors have been prompted to sell by market volatility over the last two weeks, which appears as though it could be signaling an end to the V-shaped recovery. This has likely helped spook the ultra wealthy into take some cash off the table. 

Seo Sang-young, an analy...



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ValueWalk

Markets Crash Two Days In A Row: The American Dream Is Dead

By Eloise Williams. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The American dream is dead, she thinks to herself. After all her hard work. All the blood, sweat and tears. Long nights in the office away from her family.  Diligently saving up every penny so they could have that white picket fence. A big screen television. And even an iPhone 11 Pro.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The American Dream Is Officially Dead

Emma slowly sips her bourbon while sitting on her porch. Deep wrinkles caused by stress are embedded into her once smooth face. A chunk of her blonde hair falls to the ground.&#x...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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