Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry, October 19, 2009

THE LIGHT VOLUME RALLY HAS LEGS

The low volume rally continues with news being spun six ways from Sunday. Today it was carryover optimism from last week’s winners Google and JPM and today’s rationale seemed a stretch: “Gannett revenues down; results top expectations”, “Eaton Corp sees improvement in key markets” and “Hasbro rose on cost cuts”. Oh yeah baby!

In the meantime, we await Apple and Texas Instrument earnings. Further investors are oddly joyful in high oil and commodity prices as they look at recovery prospects more than increased costs. Fed Chairman Bernanke seemed to give a green light to further dollar declines when he suggested China should spend more and Americans spend less. Did I get that right?

As stated, volume was on the light side and breadth was as positive as you’d expect.

 
 

Read it all here. >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry, October 15, 2009

DIP BUYING CONTINUES

Logic argues for a rest but Mr. Market’s not giving much ground. Some of this may have to do with options expiration tomorrow as those who can hunt down strike prices forcing exercise and hitting stops. Sure, it’s a mean game.

IBM posts good earnings while GOOG beats. So, you think over the last two hours of trading some folks got the memo? Just saying… In the meantime even horrible earnings from companies like Harley-Davidson (HOG) were bid higher following the dreamy “the worst is over” buy from WFC.

Volume is still unimpressive as many individual investors are watching but not playing despite all the cheerleading from the media…

 

 

There’s quite a mania going on in Emerging Markets and some commodity sectors. This is driving prices to extreme levels (parabolic) making mincemeat of rational judgment. It’s mostly driven by peer performance pressure, excess liquidity, and low yields; but, still only modest volume. Most investors are still feeling the bitter pain of losses and seem reluctant to take Wall Street’s bait.

More here.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, October 5, 2009

OVERSOLD GOTCHA CHEERLEADER

The rally today was expected given how oversold short-term conditions had become, not to mention short-term memories. But, again the caveat remains—low volume. GS upgraded more bank stocks today and this combined with a slightly better than expected ISM report was the slender reed bulls needed to squeeze shorts.

The fuel stocks need should come from earnings reports and those will start to roll out this week.

Volume was light and breadth positive enough to ease oversold conditions.

Read more Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, October 2, 2009

REALITY BITES BULLS

Economic reality is meeting bullish enthusiasm and the results are disappointing and upsetting. Bulls were expecting the economic recovery to continue and gain more steam. However, the reality is an economic recovery is going to take some time. Another negative we take away is stock prices are much too high. It would be interesting someday if the mainstream financial media would represent PE ratios on the basis of GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) or reported earnings versus operating earnings. In the latter case operating earnings deflate PE ratios making stocks sound cheaper than they are.

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

By Dave Fry of ETF Digest, September 28, 2009

WINDOW DRESSING PERIOD BEGINS

Look, the calendar matters when bonus money is on the line. So it was today. With stocks a tad short-term oversold we get end of month/quarter tape painting. Last week we plodded along with a 2% loss but made most of that back in one day. It’s just the way of things.

The pattern of light volume buying continues without much comment or notice and perhaps this owes something to Yom Kippur which ends this evening. Breadth was quite positive. 

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 

 
 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 25, 2009 

TRIP, STUMBLE AND FALL?

We’ve been due for this type of action for some time as conditions had gotten much overbought. Suddenly, “worse than expected” news is really just bad news not spun in another manner. We lose one of the Four Horsemen (RIMM) due to poorly received earnings; and Durable Goods and New Home Sales were in the bad news camp so the selling continued.

Volume remains at a higher level with selling than previously with buying which isn’t good. Breadth today continues negative and that should embolden dip buyers and tape painters with the quarter and month end just a few trading days away.

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

DAVE’S DAILY MARKET COMMENT

September 23, 2009

DON’T FADE THE BEARD?

The old maxim, “the first move is the wrong move” was operable today regarding Fed announcements. This isn’t always the case clearly but I’ll pull it out of my “maxim quiver” today.

The text below from today’s Fed announcement, with no dissent, is what got sellers motivated. Why? Because the statement has a hint the punchbowl may run dry in future. With markets much overbought and still forward looking, it gives investors a chance to take profits.

“To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.”

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT 

September 21, 2009

harpoatbar

WAITING FOR THE BEARD

An overbought market featured some selling today without much conviction in either direction. This may be the way of things until the Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday. Then we’ll see what kind of exit strategy may be gleaned from the droppings left by whatever is within their statement.

Light volume makes sense then since this remains a market of professionals only with most individual investors sitting this one out still bewildered by past events. Breadth was negative overall although volume on the NASDAQ was positive indicating bullish momentum remains with the big boys. 

For all of Dave’s Daily, click here. >> 

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 17, 2009

 
 

Mirrors on the ceiling, pink champagne on ice
And she said, ‘We are all just prisoners here of our own device’
And in the master’s chambers they gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives but they just can’t kill the beast.

Hotel California Part 2
The Eagles
 

The targeted beast is the bull obviously but today he got a little nick for show. I wondered yesterday after Oracle reported negative results how that might impact performance today given other economic data being released. You can only conclude that “better than expected” Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey allowed investors to brush aside negative news from not only ORCL, but FDX and EK to name a few.

We’re starting the quad-witching this afternoon and this finishes up tomorrow. It should boost volume and it has in the past few days anyway. Tomorrow volume should get an even bigger jolt higher.

Today’s volume was greater than yesterday’s but not by much and breadth was negative but not overwhelmingly so.

 
 

Read the full Dave’s Daily Market Comment here.>>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT

September 16, 2009

 

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 
 

 

 


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