Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry, October 19, 2009

THE LIGHT VOLUME RALLY HAS LEGS

The low volume rally continues with news being spun six ways from Sunday. Today it was carryover optimism from last week’s winners Google and JPM and today’s rationale seemed a stretch: “Gannett revenues down; results top expectations”, “Eaton Corp sees improvement in key markets” and “Hasbro rose on cost cuts”. Oh yeah baby!

In the meantime, we await Apple and Texas Instrument earnings. Further investors are oddly joyful in high oil and commodity prices as they look at recovery prospects more than increased costs. Fed Chairman Bernanke seemed to give a green light to further dollar declines when he suggested China should spend more and Americans spend less. Did I get that right?

As stated, volume was on the light side and breadth was as positive as you’d expect.

 
 

Read it all here. >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry, October 15, 2009

DIP BUYING CONTINUES

Logic argues for a rest but Mr. Market’s not giving much ground. Some of this may have to do with options expiration tomorrow as those who can hunt down strike prices forcing exercise and hitting stops. Sure, it’s a mean game.

IBM posts good earnings while GOOG beats. So, you think over the last two hours of trading some folks got the memo? Just saying… In the meantime even horrible earnings from companies like Harley-Davidson (HOG) were bid higher following the dreamy “the worst is over” buy from WFC.

Volume is still unimpressive as many individual investors are watching but not playing despite all the cheerleading from the media…

 

 

There’s quite a mania going on in Emerging Markets and some commodity sectors. This is driving prices to extreme levels (parabolic) making mincemeat of rational judgment. It’s mostly driven by peer performance pressure, excess liquidity, and low yields; but, still only modest volume. Most investors are still feeling the bitter pain of losses and seem reluctant to take Wall Street’s bait.

More here.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, October 5, 2009

OVERSOLD GOTCHA CHEERLEADER

The rally today was expected given how oversold short-term conditions had become, not to mention short-term memories. But, again the caveat remains—low volume. GS upgraded more bank stocks today and this combined with a slightly better than expected ISM report was the slender reed bulls needed to squeeze shorts.

The fuel stocks need should come from earnings reports and those will start to roll out this week.

Volume was light and breadth positive enough to ease oversold conditions.

Read more Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest, October 2, 2009

REALITY BITES BULLS

Economic reality is meeting bullish enthusiasm and the results are disappointing and upsetting. Bulls were expecting the economic recovery to continue and gain more steam. However, the reality is an economic recovery is going to take some time. Another negative we take away is stock prices are much too high. It would be interesting someday if the mainstream financial media would represent PE ratios on the basis of GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) or reported earnings versus operating earnings. In the latter case operating earnings deflate PE ratios making stocks sound cheaper than they are.

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

By Dave Fry of ETF Digest, September 28, 2009

WINDOW DRESSING PERIOD BEGINS

Look, the calendar matters when bonus money is on the line. So it was today. With stocks a tad short-term oversold we get end of month/quarter tape painting. Last week we plodded along with a 2% loss but made most of that back in one day. It’s just the way of things.

The pattern of light volume buying continues without much comment or notice and perhaps this owes something to Yom Kippur which ends this evening. Breadth was quite positive. 

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 

 
 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT 

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, September 25, 2009 

TRIP, STUMBLE AND FALL?

We’ve been due for this type of action for some time as conditions had gotten much overbought. Suddenly, “worse than expected” news is really just bad news not spun in another manner. We lose one of the Four Horsemen (RIMM) due to poorly received earnings; and Durable Goods and New Home Sales were in the bad news camp so the selling continued.

Volume remains at a higher level with selling than previously with buying which isn’t good. Breadth today continues negative and that should embolden dip buyers and tape painters with the quarter and month end just a few trading days away.

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

DAVE’S DAILY MARKET COMMENT

September 23, 2009

DON’T FADE THE BEARD?

The old maxim, “the first move is the wrong move” was operable today regarding Fed announcements. This isn’t always the case clearly but I’ll pull it out of my “maxim quiver” today.

The text below from today’s Fed announcement, with no dissent, is what got sellers motivated. Why? Because the statement has a hint the punchbowl may run dry in future. With markets much overbought and still forward looking, it gives investors a chance to take profits.

“To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.”

Read all of Dave’s Daily here. >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT 

September 21, 2009

harpoatbar

WAITING FOR THE BEARD

An overbought market featured some selling today without much conviction in either direction. This may be the way of things until the Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday. Then we’ll see what kind of exit strategy may be gleaned from the droppings left by whatever is within their statement.

Light volume makes sense then since this remains a market of professionals only with most individual investors sitting this one out still bewildered by past events. Breadth was negative overall although volume on the NASDAQ was positive indicating bullish momentum remains with the big boys. 

For all of Dave’s Daily, click here. >> 

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily MARKET COMMENT

September 17, 2009

 
 

Mirrors on the ceiling, pink champagne on ice
And she said, ‘We are all just prisoners here of our own device’
And in the master’s chambers they gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives but they just can’t kill the beast.

Hotel California Part 2
The Eagles
 

The targeted beast is the bull obviously but today he got a little nick for show. I wondered yesterday after Oracle reported negative results how that might impact performance today given other economic data being released. You can only conclude that “better than expected” Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey allowed investors to brush aside negative news from not only ORCL, but FDX and EK to name a few.

We’re starting the quad-witching this afternoon and this finishes up tomorrow. It should boost volume and it has in the past few days anyway. Tomorrow volume should get an even bigger jolt higher.

Today’s volume was greater than yesterday’s but not by much and breadth was negative but not overwhelmingly so.

 
 

Read the full Dave’s Daily Market Comment here.>>

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT

September 16, 2009

 

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 
 

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

Was coronavirus really in Europe in March 2019?

 

Was coronavirus really in Europe in March 2019?

Courtesy of Claire Crossan, Glasgow Caledonian University

The novel coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – may have been in Europe for longer than previously thought. Recent studies have suggested that it was circulating in Italy as early as December 2019. More surprisingly, researchers at the University of Barcelona found traces of the virus when testing untreated wastewater samples dated March 12, 2019.

The study was recently published on a preprint server, medRxiv. The paper is currently being subject to critical review by outside experts in preparation for...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Was coronavirus really in Europe in March 2019?

 

Was coronavirus really in Europe in March 2019?

Courtesy of Claire Crossan, Glasgow Caledonian University

The novel coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – may have been in Europe for longer than previously thought. Recent studies have suggested that it was circulating in Italy as early as December 2019. More surprisingly, researchers at the University of Barcelona found traces of the virus when testing untreated wastewater samples dated March 12, 2019.

The study was recently published on a preprint server, medRxiv. The paper is currently being subject to critical review by outside experts in preparation for...



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Zero Hedge

The Sinking Titanic's Great Pumps Finally Fail

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, OfTwoMinds blog

The greater fools still partying in the first-class lounge are in denial that even the greatest, most technologically advanced ship can sink.

On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments and other features, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night. In the early hours of April 15, the great ship broke in half and sank, ending the lives of the majorit...



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ValueWalk

These coronavirus stimulus benefits will expire this month

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The CARES Act was signed into law on March 27 by President Donald Trump. Along with the stimulus checks, the relief package offered several benefits. Many of these benefits were one-time or came with an expiration date. Let’s take a look at the coronavirus stimulus benefits that are set to expire this month.

Coronavirus stimulus benefits that will expire soon

One of the first benefits of the CARES Act that will expire is the extension to file your taxes. The original deadline to file taxes was April 15. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the deadline was extended to July 15.

There were reports that this ...



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Chart School

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.

Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch 

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving a...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Red Hot China Attempting Key Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

China ETF (FXI) has been “Red Hot” of late? Is it about to run out of steam or will it remain on fire going forward?

This chart of FXI comes from Investors Business Daily and Marketsmith.com. It reflects that FXI is above key long-term moving averages and its RS ratings is moving sharply higher of late.

Line (1) has been support and resistance several times over the past 3-years. The rally of late has FXI ...



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The Technical Traders

Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Yes, we certainly live in interesting times.  This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020.  If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.

On May 24th, 2020, we published this ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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