Posts Tagged ‘Davos’

INTERVIEW WITH NIALL FERGUSON: Yes, The US Is Screwed

Exclusive for Business Insider, courtesy of Henry Blodget and Mamta Badkar

Editors Note: This is an interview conducted by Business Insider Editor in Chief Henry Blodget In Davos. Read the full transciption below.


BI: So, Professor Ferguson is the United States still screwed?

NF: Well this is not a technical term in economics that I recognize so let me maybe rephrase the question. Does the United States still have an economic problem? Yes. What is that problem? The problem is that having thrown massive fiscal and monetary stimulus at the economy it is still growing too slowly to bring down the unemployment rate. um what is the answer to that problem? some people say more fiscal stimulus and that indeed is what is being done and more monetary stimulus, and that indeed is what is being done in the form of QE 2. That may well have some short term impact but there is a risk that the fiscal position of the United States tips over from being stimulative to being unsustainable. And the big worry is that at some point this year, could be next year, the level of borrowing the United States engages in pushes inflation expectations or even default expectations to the point that nominal yields really start to spike and then The Fed is in a jam b/c it would then have to do QE3 on a massive scale and quite quickly we could be facing a really major dislocation either in the bond market or currency markets that is the problem. Is the U.S. screwed? No not the way Japan is screwed or even the way the Euro zone is screwed but the U.S. is certainly not out of trouble. 

BI: So isn’t that what people were saying about Japan, in 1993, that they were done and here we are 18 yrs later and interest rates are still zero, they’re still spending, still borrowing and borrowing and they…
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DoGS FiGHT aT DaVoS

Courtesy of williambanzai7

DOGS FIGHT AT DAVOS

REUTERS--Jamie Dimon, credited with having steered JP Morgan through financial turmoil in 2007-08, had earlier in the day lashed out at persistent bank bashing nearly three years after the global credit crisis began, saying it was “unproductive and unfair”.

But when he rose at a later session of the World Economic Forum to ask Sarkozy to get the G20 to avoid overregulation of banks, the French president launched into a broadside accusing financiers of behaviour that he said had caused the crisis. “The world has paid with tens of millions of unemployed, who were in no way to blame and who paid for everything,” Sarkozy said to Dimon. “It caused a lot of anger.”

The French leader also renewed his call for a financial transaction tax to fund development but acknowledged that many G20 countries opposed such a levy. He suggested a small pioneer group of states might go ahead with a tiny levy or some other form of innovative financing to lead the way.

Dimon praised governments for intervening to save the financial system in 2008. But he said the G20 group of major economies, which Sarkozy chairs this year, should take a deep breath before imposing more regulation. “Too much is too much,” he said. The outspoken Dimon had earlier told a separate panel not all lenders made the same mistakes in the run-up to the crisis. “Not all banks are the same and I just think that this constant refrain ‘bankers, bankers, bankers’ is just unproductive and unfair. People should just stop doing that.” He echoed comments by Barclays CEO Bob Diamond, who told a UK parliamentary committee this month that “the period of remorse and apologies for banks” needed to be over. MARKET OR MADHOUSE”

Sarkozy was having none of it. “The world was stupefied to see one of five biggest U.S. banks collapse like a house of cards,” he told a plenary session of the Davos Forum. “We saw that for the last 10 years, major institutions in which we thought we could trust had done things which had nothing to do with simple common sense. That’s what happened.”

The United States government spent hundred of billions of dollars of public money to bail out financial institutions, after the dramatic failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008, through the controversial Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).…
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The New Perspective

"At Davos, the Globalizers Are Gone," is an excellent article by Ian Bremmer, and in sharp contrast to another excellent article I posted yesterday by George F. Smith writing at Mises Daily, By the Way, Free Markets Are Free. I would submit that the ideals of a truly free market are an illusion because we do not have the political system and laws framed in such a way as to support a truly free market system. We cannot go straight to free market remedies because we cannot dispense with the need for a functional, non-corrupted, political and legal system – laws constraining freedom – to provide the framework in which a free market can operate.  And hence, "free" is not completely free and it can’t be. – Ilene

The New Perspective

Woman Standing on Globe Beach Ball

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at When Giants Fall

Say what you will, but one reason why globalization has had the traction it has up until recently, despite anecdotal and other evidence that it has not lived up to many of the promises of its proponents, is because of the support of the movers and the shakers. In America and elsewhere, corporate executives and other powerful interests have used their money and influence to ensure that policymakers were not swayed to move in a different direction. But the times are a-changin’. As foreign policy expert Ian Bremmer notes in a commentary for the Washington Post, "At Davos, the Globalizers Are Gone," some of the biggest supporters of unfettered cross-border trade and free markets, no doubt shaken by the events of the past two years, seem to have lost their mojo.

For 40 years there’s been a consensus view at the Davos World Economic Forum that globalization’s increasingly free cross-border flow of ideas, information, people, money, goods and services is both irreversible and a powerful force for prosperity. As with meetings of the G7 group of industrialized nations, there was broad agreement on the proper role for the state in the performance of markets. Sure, a French cabinet official and an American investment banker might spar over the relative merits of state paternalism and Anglo-Saxon labor laws, but the bargaining table was still reserved for champions of Western-style free market capitalism.

Davos has always had its critics. For those who believe globalization empowers the rich at


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Singing “Davos Done and We Need Another Loan”

Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan

Work our lives just to lose our homes
Interest come and we need another loan
Stack default swaps till they come undone
Interest come and we need another loan

Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan
Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan

6%, 7% – it's a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan
6%, 7% – it's a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan

Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
When interest comes we'll need another loan

 

It was the best of times (with the IMF predicting 3.9% Global growth) and the worst of times (with Roubini saying we're all doomed) at Davos this week as the men who rule the world gathered to divide the spoils over card games while vying with each other for podium and TV time so they could talk their various books from the safety of the Swiss mountains.  Davos, a tiny village perched on a mountain with just two main streets, lacks the protests of other Global gatherings.  During the annual meeting, the town is taken hostage by thousands of police.  “Anyone who looks like a protester can be thrown off the train,” says Marco Leutholz, head of the local Socialist party (and that train often overlooks steep cliffs!).  Sir Howard Davies (director of the LSE) writes:

The mood is certainly better than last year, when the world was ending, but it is worse than at the beginning of last week. Alessandro Profumo of Unicredit acutely observed that Davos is likely to accentuate whatever mood you arrived in, rather as alcohol does, I guess. So those who arrived nervous about the economic prospects are leaving even more jittery. If you arrived feeling pessimistic, you will leave somewhere between suicidal and homicidal.

The market background has not helped. Anxiety about Greece has grown over the past three days. In the circumstances, it was strange to see both the Greek prime minister and his finance minister here. Maybe the subtext was to show that there can be no crisis if they are munching muesli


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The Only 10 Important Things Said So Far In Davos

The Only 10 Important Things Said So Far In Davos

Courtesy of Clusterstock’s Lawrence Delevingne davos world economic forum switzerland panel WEF

Davos is a crowded place this week.

Luminaries and assorted hangers-on are all jostling for attention at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. There are some 224 sessions over five days for opining on the future of the world, not to mention countless interview opportunities from hoards of reporters.

In short, there’s plenty said, most of it a huge snooze.

Here are the only 10 important things that have been said so far, including:

  • The recovery will be U-shaped
  • Bankers should aim for 10% return on equity, not a greedy 20% 

Ten Can’t-Miss Quotes From Davos So Far >>> 

See Also:

Soros: ‘The Ultimate Asset Bubble Is Gold’

Saudi Oil CEO Comes Out Swinging In Davos: ‘We Don’t Believe In Peak Oil’

Davos Goers Still Having Way More Fun Than You

Image: WEF/Monika Flueckiger 


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Thrilling Thursday – Obama plus Jobs (Steve, not employment) Boost the Market

You would think I would have a lot to say about the IPAD but I don't.

After all, I named the IPad back in December 2008 when I told Members: "AAPL just announced a deal to do Ebooks on IPhones and ITouch and that is the intermediate step towards the IPad, which should be a 2-3x size version of the IPhone that takes the place of a Kindle or a laptop or a notepad or…"  I also ran a very close to accurate picture of the IPad back on Sept 11th (and the live images are here), which documents our bullish take on AAPL all the way from $85 and reiterated in Sept at $170 (but we were out at $213 Tuesday, back in at $202 yesterday for the ride back up as we got our expected sell-off during the Apple event) – so this is all old news for us at PSW.

Back in September I said: "So we are happy, happy AAPL owners and Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster thinks AAPL can sell 2M units of the IPad at $600 each to generate an additional $1.2Bn in revenues in 2010 and I think he’s low.  Also, it should be noted that we went with GLW back in December on the premise that millions of touch-screen IPads would use a lot of high-end glass."  I am very pleased that the basic model came in $100 lower than my target but, as with IPods – who buys the basic model?  Delivery in 60 days means I should hit my sales targets no problem and I it doesn't look like GLW will be the supplier of IPad glass (LPL seems more likely) but the demand for glass will still be stunning and GLW is up 26% since September so we're not going to whine about it (I still like them). 

OK, enough about toys, on to the President, who gave his State of the Union Address last night, making the following notable points (my notes in brackets):

I'm proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat. I'm also proposing a new small-business tax credit, one that will go to over 1


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Robert Shiller in Davos

Robert Shiller in Davos

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made

Some of the world’s smartest and dumbest economists have gathered in Davos, Switzerland to talk about the global banking system and how they’re all hoping that 2010 doesn’t turn out like 2008. CNBC’s Becky Quick grabbed Yale economist Robert Shiller for a quick chat.

Obviously, Shiller is one of the sharper tools in the economic shed, starting this interview by noting of his duller brethren: "The problem with a lot of economic theory is that they have not recognized what drives the economy." Sad, but true. 

 


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Zero Hedge

Amazon Warehouse Workers In Alabama Could Get Second Vote To Unionize

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Amazon warehouse workers in Alabama that attempted and failed to unionize may get another chance after a US labor board official determined the e-commerce giant's tactics against unionization improperly influenced workers during the first vote, according to Financial Times

In the second half of August, the US National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) will determine if a second vote should occur after an agency official determined Amazon violated labor laws duri...



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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Lot's Of Cash On The Sidelines

 

Momentum Monday – Lot’s Of Cash On The Sidelines

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

It sure does not feel like the S&P is up 18 percent this year, but it is.

Lot’s of different sectors have worked this year but IPO’s and growth are not two of them.

Ivanhoff and I did our weekly tour of the markets and you watch/listen right here. I have embedded the show below:

Ivanhoff’s notes for the week are below:

Vaccine stocks (MRNA and BNTX) are still lingering near all-time highs. Masks (HON, APT, LAKE) and ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Gann review, what happened at $65000, what is next?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Bitcoin stopped at $65,000 and sunk 50%, that was not expected, confused.

It's funny how Gann Angles can be the rail road for price action. 





Chart in video.








Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem - here's what a social media expert recommends

 

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem – here’s what a social media expert recommends

Misinformation on social media is hindering efforts to vaccinate people against the coronavirus. Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

With less than half the United States population fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and as the delta variant sweeps the nation, the U.S. surgeon general issued an advisory that called misinformation ...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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