Posts Tagged ‘dealers’

The POMO Submitted-To-Accepted Ratio: A Tell On How To Frontrun The Frontrunning Primary Dealers

The POMO Submitted-To-Accepted Ratio: A Tell On How To Frontrun The Frontrunning Primary Dealers

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

To those who look to Fed POMO days as a guaranteed panacea to underperformance and an even more guaranteed green close, you are right (at least, so far). But that is only half the story. It turns out that combing through POMO data yields a very surprising set of outcomes, namely, that the ultimate return on any given POMO day is almost exclusively a function of the Submitted-to-Accepted ratio. As John Lohman highlights, "the generic market effect on POMO days (i.e. stocks and yields up relative to non-POMO days) should be pronounced when the submitted-to-accepted ratio is relatively low (“meets expectations”) and muted when the ratio is high (“a negative surprise”, particularly if said Dealers had already positioned themselves in pre-POMO trading, based on a set of expectations regarding the outcome)." Indeed, the empirical result is precisely that. Which is why in addition to keeping track of POMO days, a far more critical piece of information is tracking the S/A ratio disclosed every day at 11am. If low, and if market performance is below a specific bucket’s average, it may be a green light for a stratospheric ramp into market close, and a signal to frontrun the market alongside the Primary Dealers.

Without further ado, here is the statistical data compiled and associated narrative by John Lohman that predicts not only market performance, but Primary Dealer frontrunning via Fed monetization generosity.

POMO Submitted to Accepted ratio

In a prior Zero Hedge post (here), it was clearly demonstrated (to all save a few unnamed asshats who believe in coincidences against all statistical probability) that equities and interest rates tend to rally on POMO days relative to non-POMO days.  Here, using the Fed’s Total Par ‘Accepted’ and ‘Submitted’ data, we can show that, not only is this effect not a coincidence, but that the magnitude of the market’s reaction to POMO on any given day is positively correlated with the outcome of that day’s operation.

The POMO ‘Submitted-to-Accepted’ ratio can be thought of as being similar to a reverse bid-to-cover ratio in Treasury auctions.  Primary Dealers submit a certain volume of paper and the Fed accepts a portion of it.  If POMO is indeed having a direct impact on the markets, there should be a relationship between the submitted-to-accepted ratio and…
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GM: The Deep, Dark Shadows of Bankruptcy

Update on GM, courtesy of TIME 

GM: The Deep, Dark Shadows of Bankruptcy

A GM dealership in Los Angeles
A GM dealership in Los Angeles
Mark Ralston / AFP / Getty 

General Motors appears to be on a fast road to bankruptcy. Chief executive officer Fritz Henderson has already described a bankruptcy filing as "probable" as the U.S. Treasury’s June 1 deadline for reorganizing the company draws near. Also, the fact that GM announced it was moving up its date for paying suppliers from June 2 to May 28 further suggests bankruptcy is likely, says Brad Coulter of O’Keefe & Associates of Bloomfield Hills, Mich., which specializes in helping distressed manufacturing companies. "To me, it’s a pretty clear indicator that they plan to file right around the June 1 deadline." At the same time, half a dozen senior GM executives have dumped shares, even though the stock has been trading for less than $2.

Meanwhile, the work necessary for averting a GM bankruptcy remains undone. Though the automaker is reportedly making progress on negotiations with the United Auto Workers (UAW), open issues remain, and the GM even got into a public spat with the UAW over importing cars from China and Mexico. The union is now demanding more assurances as to what cars GM plans to build in the U.S. in the future. (See portraits of autoworkers.)

On a more positive note, the two sides have reportedly reached agreement on how to finance the Voluntary Employees’ Beneficiary Association (VEBA), which was set up to fund retiree health-care benefits for GM’s blue-collar workforce. GM is said to be agreeing to deposit half the $20 billion it owes the VEBA and to fund the other half with GM stock. The agreement appears to be very similar to the deal Chrysler LLC reached with the UAW. That deal puts the UAW in control of the new Chrysler, with 55% of the stock. The union has also reportedly agreed to cut labor costs, though neither the union nor GM would confirm the figures.

As part of the overall restructuring plan put forward by the company, 16 manufacturing facilities in the U.S. will be closed, including four assembly plants, according to Alan Reuther, director of the UAW’s Washington office.

In a related move, GM announced


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Mapping The Chrysler Fallout

Mapping The Chrysler Fallout

The map below demonstrates the chickenpox impact that just the initial round of Chrysler dealer shutdowns will have on the US economy. As is evident from the map (an interactive version of the map can be accessed here), the pain will be focused east of the Rockies, although major West Coast metropolises will not be spared either: every dot represents an automotive dealer that Chrysler disclosed today will be made redundant.

As for the hardest hit states, the biggest losers in terms of shutterings will be:

  • Pennsylvania: 53
  • Ohio: 47
  • Texas: 45
  • Illinois: 43
  • Michigan: 40
  • California: 31
  • New Jersey: 30
  • Florida: 29
  • New York: 26

 

 


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Key Inflation Indicators Facing Big Test In September!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation has long been a word that the Federal Reserve uses but the general markets have forgotten about.

Why? Well because it’s been virtually non-existent for years. Key indicators like commodities (i.e. copper) have been in a down-trends and the Materials Sector (XLB) has lagged… until this year.

In today’s chart 3-pack, we take a look at the Equal Weight Commodity Index, ...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 09-23-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW!

 

Major Topics

00:02:57 - Checking on the Market
00:09:49 - Futures
00:19:50 - STP
00:22:52 - TQQQ | SQQQ 
00:26:45 - SDS | CMG
00:27:16 - UNG
00:30:02 - LTP
00:38:10 - BRK-B
00:41:51 - AAPL
00:43:45 - Trading Technique
00:48:25 - INTC
00:51:01 - COVID-19 Update
01:07:14 - More Trading Techniques
01:13:19 - Current News
01:16:41 - STP
01:17:09 - CMG | TSLA
01:19:36 - IMAX

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly We...



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ValueWalk

How Leading From The Heart Can Propel Business Executives To Greatness

By Kimberly Roush. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A healthy ego can be a good thing, allowing someone to take pride in who they are and what they do.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

But when business executives allow an unhealthy ego to drive them, enormous problems are certain to follow, says Kimberly Roush, founder of All-Star Executive Coaching and co-author of Who Are You… When You Are Big?

“A big ego can...



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Zero Hedge

Sweden Dominates Drug-Deaths In Europe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As highlighted by the latest edition of the European Drug Report, Sweden is the country with the most drug-induced deaths per million of the population in Europe.

In 2018, 81 people died per million inhabitants, ahead of the United Kingdom's 76 drug-induced deaths per million. Finland and Ireland jointly had the third-highest death rate with 72 deaths per million.

You will find more infographics ...



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Politics

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

 

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

"If you can't get a Covid test or find an N95, it’s because these contractors stole from the American people to make faster jets and fancy uniforms."

By Jake Johnson

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley hold an end of year press conference at the Pentagon on December 20, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Instead of adhering to congressional inten...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

 

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

How much longer must society wait for a vaccine? ANDRZEJ WOJCICKI/Getty Images

By William Petri, University of Virginia

With COVID-19 vaccines currently in the final phase of study, you’ve probably been wondering how the FDA will decide if a vaccine is safe and effective.

Based on the status of the Phase 3 trials currently underway, it i...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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