Posts Tagged ‘DECK’

Deckers Options Active As Earnings Report Sparks UGG-ly Selloff In Shares

 

Today’s tickers: DECK, LULU & PG

DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp. – Shares in Deckers Outdoor Corp. fell as much as 12.15% to as low as $79.25 on Friday after the Company behind footwear brands UGG and Teva said 2012 earnings will be unchanged at $5.07 a share, missing average analyst expectations of $5.80 a share. Put buying in the March expiry suggests some traders are prepping for the stock to take a few more kicks to the face in the near term. Options traders appear to have purchased more than 2,150 puts at the Mar. $75 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event that Deckers Outdoor’s shares shed another 7.25% to trade below the average breakeven price of $73.50. Bearish positions are also building at the Mar. $72.5 strike, where more than 1,100 puts were picked up for an average premium of $1.00 a-pop. Front month put positioning contrasts with April expiry activity in far out-of-the-money put options. It looks like strategists betting the stock is unlikely to crash much lower ahead of April expiration sold around 6,000 puts at the $70 strike at a premium of $1.51 each, and sold another 1,900 puts at the lower $65 strike for an average premium of $0.76 apiece. Put sellers walk away with the full amount of premium received on the trades as long as DECK’s shares keep their footing above the strike prices described at April expiration.

LULU - Lululemon Athletica, Inc. – Traders appear to be bulking up on bullish Lululemon options today, with shares in the retailer of high-end athletic apparel earlier rallying to a record high of $67.57. Call buying in the March expiry this morning may be the work of strategists preparing for…
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White Christmas Portfolio – Goaaaaalll!!!

Looks like we’ll be having a green Christmas this year!

Congratulations to all who played along with our latest virtual portfolio as we couldn’t have made 33 better trades in a month as we blasted past our goal for an 89.4% gain, from $15,000 to $28,415 in just 25 days.  There’s certainly as much luck as skill in getting this kind of result but, since we’re over a month ahead of schedule and ahead of our $25,000 goal – there’s no reason to shut this down and we’ll see how far we can push things through Christmas – on one condition.

In the last update, I put up a link to our NYC Food Bank, where we are fortunate enough to have arranged for matching donations for the next Million Dollars that comes in.  If you should happen to benefit from what you learn following our virtual portfolio – PLEASE take a moment to give something back to the millions who are less fortunate.  It doesn’t have to be the Food Bank – all of our communities have needs and you may find it pleasantly surprising at how good it makes you feel to just walk into a local shelter – hand someone a check and say "Happy Holidays."  

Reach more New Yorkers with a matching gift!

That’s all you have to do.  They may try to hug you (there’s a lot of huggy people working in shelters) but they won’t put you on a list or bug you for money or come to your house – they are just thrilled to make it through a week with enough money to take care of the people who really need it.  Please keep that in mind as this is a particularly hard holiday season for charities – as giving has plunged around the country and needs, obviously, have skyrocketed.  

Thank you.  Now we can get back to our Capitalistic endeavors!  

  • 2 NFLX Nov $67.50 puts sold for $3 expired worthless – up $600
  • 5 DECK Nov $105 calls sold for $6.60 expired worthless – up $3,300
  • 5 SCO Nov $45/48 bull call spreads at $1.10 expired worthless – down $1,100
  • 20 FAS Nov $11 puts sold for .65 (-$1,300) expired worthless


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I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas – Portfolio

Wow, what a market!

Maybe we closed out our $25,000 Portfolio too early last week, with a virtual gain of $105,000 (420%) for the year, but we still have our Income Portfolio, which was quite bullishly positioned and well ahead of goal as well as positions in our very aggressive September's Dozen List that are winding down, so we decided to set up this new virtual portfolio with the goal of turning $15,000 in to $25,000 between now and Christmas to have a little extra spending cash for the holidays.  

The strategy is the same as the $25,000 Portfolio, which is meant to be the aggressive, "risk" portion of a $250,000 or larger portfolio, utilizing excess margin to our advantage with the goal of making a series of hit and run plays, with the goal of making $1,000 a week for the next 10 weeks.  Also like the $25KP, we take our winners off the table and work out our losers as best we can because, above all else, this is an exercise in adjusting and managing short-term positions.

This virtual portfolio will be available to Voyeur Members but trade ideas during chat will have their usual 1-hour delay. Premium members will get the trades with no delay Basic Members also see WCP-related comments with no delay as well.  New trade ideas and updates will be copied into the comment section of this post or, assuming I write one, the updates of this post.  If you are not a Member yet, now is a good time to join. Check out the subscription page – Our EXAMPLE trade on C closed up 200% and our ENP example returned 137% – not bad for free samples, right?

Our first official trade for the new portfolio was one we discussed on the weekend, GNW, which I added to the main post on Monday (and discussed that afternoon, in part, in my BNN interview).  We're not going to re-hash the logic for every trade here, this is simply a review post to track the trade ideas (and, while we do our best to be as accurate as possible, we do NOT include trading fees, which vary greatly so always take that into account) so we can see how they are
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Monday Market Movement – “Like Moths to a Flame!”

"Investors are drawn to China like moths to a flame." – Neil Woodford

That’s a great quote.  Neil is the head of investments at Invesco, running the UK’s largest investment fund with a decade of 15% average returns under his belt so let’s take the man seriously for starters.  Mr Woodford’s concerns coincide with figures showing that food prices in China were 10.1pc higher in October than in the same month last year – a level of inflation not seen since mid-2007. This is deepening concern that China’s economy is now starting to overheat.

"I do not deny that in the long term an economy like China will grow much more rapidly than the West. But I think one has to be very careful about correlating growth necessarily with economic opportunity, and opportunity to make money," said Mr. Woodford.  

And so it is that the moths are all drawn to the light, even as it burns them. For they are blindly drawn to its grace, hitting their heads about the light, destroying their senses, going without food, and becoming easy prey to those that hunt them.  Even those few moths that will get within the embrase of the light will burn unable to escape, ever

There was no escape for Ireland this weekend as the IMF and EU pinned the country down and forced them to swallow a $130Bn aid package at (get this!) 6.7%.  $17.5Bn of this money is to come out of Irish pension funds all just to make sure Bill Gross doesn’t lose any of the money he lent to Ireland!  I honestly cannot tell you who is the more vile, despicable villain in this debacle.  Is it the banks, who started this mess with their idiotic lending practices?  Is it the lobbyists and lawmakers, who turned Ireland into a tax haven for EU Corporations and destroyed the economy by funneling tax breaks to the wealthy?  Is it the Irish Government, who stupidly bailed out the failing banks with guarantees that put the nation on the hook for more money than their entire GDP.  Is it the bondholders, who drove up the cost of financing Ireland’s newfound debt to levels that threatened to break the National Bank or is it the EU & IMF, who are effectively playing the role of loan sharks, borrowing $100Bn at…
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Weak Weekly Wrap-Up – Charting Uncertain Waters

I’m just doing a quick wrap-up this week because, surprisingly, it MIGHT be time for a new Buy List!

I had said to Members on Cinco de Mayo, in our 5% Rule Review, that if we broke below 1,155 we would retrace all the way to 1,100 with our 5% Rule resistance points around 1,100 at 1,155, 1,114, 1,100, 1,073 and 1,045.   We actually spiked as low as 1,066 on Thursday but finished the week at a very sad 1,110 as we watched for that "weak bounce" zone to be broken all day.  This does not bode technically well for the markets next week but I told Members we would have to give the markets a pass for the day.  Based on the uncertainty of the weekend, we can’t expect a lot of capital commitments ahead of the EU decision.  After all, we’re in cash – why shouldn’t other smart funds be too?

When I predicted we’d hit 1,000 on Wednesday, I did not think it would be on Thursday!  The markets are now negative for the year and the S&P has spiked almost to the Feb low of 1,044 (and our lowest close was 1,056).  That’s right, these 5% Rule numbers are the SAME ones we used back then and it’s the same series we used to measure our winter run at the end of last year.  We expect a bounce here, hopefully at least a test of 1,155 on a relief rally if Greece is "fixed" yet again on Monday but we’re not going to be too impressed until we’re over that line. 

Still that means it’s time to at least lay out a new Watch List, which is the prelude to a Buy List – giving us a list of stocks we’d like to get into at lower prices.  Our last Member Watch List was back in December and by Feb 6th we had our famous Buy List, which we triggered at Dow 10,058 for a very successful run through March 18th ("Bye Bye Buy List!"), when we closed 2/3 of the positions and we have since cashed out the rest as I got more and more worried about the rally, finally calling for all cash last week.  

Speaking of last week, for those of you who say I don’t pick enough straight stocks – I listed 33 short trade ideas from my unofficial "Sell Listlast Friday (4/30) when the Dow was way up at 11,167…
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GDWheee Friday – Could be a Wild Ride!

Attention ladies and gentlemen:

The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times.  Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report.  The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it's a miss). 

Since our biggest weekend fear is financial panic in Europe, our cash US dollars will become more valuable in a crisis and if the market drops, all the better as we can ride back in and do some bargain hunting.  If the market takes off on good GDP and Greece is "fixed" and Spain is "fixed" and Portugal and Ireland are not really a problem (especially for MS and JPM) and the CRIMINAL charges against Goldman look beatable and and the Financial Reform Bill doesn't disrupt the market with a disorderly breakup of the big banks and the Bank of International Settlements Report continues to be ignored and the run on the Greek banks doesn't spread to other STUPID counties – well, then we can BUYBUYBUY because, if all this doesn't matter, then it's very likely that the entire planet Earth could explode but Wall Street will keep ticking higher.

Yep, I can't wait to ride this baby mindlessly higher!  After all, what can go wrong?  BIDU is ONLY $710 a share, BLK is $190, CMP is $76, GOLD is $84, BUCY is $65, FAST is $56, MMM is $90, FOSL $40, F $13.50, DECK $149, SHOO $55, TPX $35, LZB $14, CTB $22, NOG $16, CEO $176, FTI $75, CLB $150, CIB $46, BBD $19, TD $75, BCA $45, BAP $87, ITUB $22, EDU $94, WYNN $93, FFIV $72, CY $14, CREE $77, UPS $70, UNP $78… 

These were stocks I was looking at last week, when I told members I thought it was easier to construct a Sell List than our usual…
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Option Bulls Buy Calls to Celebrate New Coverage of NuVasive Spinal Treatment

Today’s tickers: NUVA, TRE, FXE, BBY, DECK, LEN, AA, ESRX, JDSU & UNH

NUVA – NuVasive Inc. – The spinal surgery equipment maker’s shares are up sharply today by more than 32.50% to $39.38. NuVasive’s shares surged on news health insurance company, Aetna, is changing its policy to allow reimbursement for surgical spine treatment know as lateral interbody fusion. Bullish posturing in call options was observed today following the news about extended coverage for the treatment, which was previously excluded for being an experimental procedure. Plain-vanilla call buyers picked up nearly 2,000 contracts at the March $40 strike for an average premium of $1.34 apiece. Investors long the calls are prepared to pocket profits if NUVA’s shares rally above the effective breakeven point on the calls at $41.34 by expiration day next month.

TRE – Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. – British Columbia, Canada-based gold mining company, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp., attracted heavier than usual two-way trading traffic in put options today. The firm, which explores and acquires gold properties in Tanzania, realized a 2.30% rally in its shares during the session to $4.05. More than 25,000 in-the-money put options changed hands at the October $5 strike with the majority of the volume trading to the bid. Approximately 14,200 puts were sold for an average premium of $1.31 per contract, while 5,200 put contracts were purchased at that strike for roughly the same amount of premium. In-the-money put sellers are perhaps anticipating continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying by October expiration. Investors short the puts keep the full $1.31 premium per contract if TRE’s shares rally above $5.00 by expiration day. Put sellers stand ready to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $3.69 apiece in the event that the put contracts remain in-the-money through expiration day.

FXE – CurrencyShares Euro Trust – Shares of the FXE exchange-traded fund, which reflects the price of the Euro, are up 0.45% to $135.88 in afternoon trading. A decent-sized put butterfly spread on the fund indicates one investor does not expect the current rally to continue. On the contrary, the parameters of the spread benefit the trader most if shares decrease roughly 2.25% in value by April expiration. To enact the bearish butterfly play, the investor purchased 5,000 puts at the April $134 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece [wing 1], and picked…
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Phil's Favorites

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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Zero Hedge

Restaurants Slashed Jobs Last Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Jonathan Maze of Restaurant Business

The restaurant industry lost 17,400 jobs in November, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Friday.

It was the first monthly decline in the number of restaurant workers since April, suggesting that a renewed virus and state shutdowns of dine-in service are taking their toll.

The data is likely to increase pressure on Congress and the president to approve a new stimulus package, one that includes specific aid to independent restaurants that have been devastated by the pandemic.

The industry had been adding jobs at a rapid clip since May, as restaurants reopened dining rooms and expanded while consumers grew more comfortable with dining out. But it remains far below its pre-pande...



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ValueWalk

Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First on CNBC: CNBC Transcript: National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on the November jobs report.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

CARL QUINTANILLA: The director of the National Economic Council will talk about the November jobs’ number this morning. Larry, good morning. Happy Friday, good to have you back.

LARRY KUDLOW: Thank you. Hello folks, how are...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is The US Dollar About To Reach A Melting Point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been 20 years since the last major peak in the US Dollar. Could the greenback’s latest turn lower confirm another peak?

Today’s chart takes a macro view of the US Dollar Index and highlights the long-term down-trend at each point (1). As you can see, the buck is on a topsy turvy ride, bouncing up and down within this down-trend.

The latest bottom formed after the financial crisis and has seen the US Dollar trade within a 9 year up-trend channel marked by each (2). This gave bulls some confidence that the US Dollar may have formed a long-term bottomȂ...



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Politics

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

 

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

"Georgia elections director yesterday: Trump's rhetoric is going to get people killed. Trump today: here's 46 minutes of unhinged conspiracy theories."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

Activists march through the city of Detroit on November 7, 2020 to denounce President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud. (Photo: Adam J. Dewey/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just days...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.

Gold Gann Angle Chart ...



Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



 

Gold Channel Chart
 


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Ang...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.