Posts Tagged ‘decoupling’

Misguided Love Affair with China; China’s Massive Monetary Expansion and Crackup Boom

Misguided Love Affair with China; China’s Massive Monetary Expansion and Crackup Boom

Courtesy of Mish 

Earth with Ying and Yang symbols

China is pointing the finger at the US, complaining about "Out of Control" US dollar Printing by the Fed.

Dollar issuance by the United States is "out of control", leading to an inflation assault on China, the Chinese commerce minister said in comments reported on Tuesday.

"Because the United States’ issuance of dollars is out of control and international commodity prices are continuing to rise, China is being attacked by imported inflation. The uncertainties of this are causing firms big problems," Chen was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency.

Chinese officials have criticised U.S. monetary policy as being too loose before, but rarely in such explicit language.

Decoupling Theories Renewed 

I will get to loose monetary policy in just a bit, but first consider More than decoupled, China is in league of its own

Two years on from the global financial crisis, the contrast with the rich world is striking. In the United States and Europe, growth is sluggish, a slump into outright deflation is a real risk and central banks look set to loosen policy further.

So the evidence is in: China is decoupled, influenced by, but ultimately independent from other major economies.

"The crisis was a test and China passed the test. Decoupling has become a much more solid thesis now than three years ago when we only talked about it hypothetically," said Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for greater China.

Chinese Money Supply Numbers from People’s Bank of China

Money and Quasi Money Jan 2009 – 496135.31
Money and Quasi Money Sep 2010 – 696384.86

"Out Of Control" Monetary Expansion Irony

I am certainly not about to defend the Fed’s misguided policies, but the complaint from Chinese commerce minister that US monetary printing is "out of control" is the ultimate in "pot calling the kettle black" irony.

Over the past few weeks I have exchanged quite a few Emails regarding China with my friend "BC" who writes …

Total Chinese money supply is up over 4 times since ’03, a 17%/yr. rate at a doubling time of just 4 years; up 66% since Jan. ’08, a 19%/yr. rate at a doubling time of 43 months; and


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Trade Deficit Widens, Signals Weaker U.S. Economic Growth

Trade Deficit Widens, Signals Weaker U.S. Economic Growth

Courtesy of Rom Badilla at Bondsquawk

Stacked Red Cargo Containers

The trade deficit widened for the fourth consecutive month on a jump in imports of consumer goods from China, signaling weaker economic growth for the U.S.  The Department of Commerce revealed that the U.S. Trade Balance for June totaled a deficit of $49.9 billion from a revised prior period gap of $42.0 billion.  The widening was driven by both a 1.3 percent fall in exports and a 3.0 percent increase in imports.  The June number disappointed the market as economists forecasted a negative trade balance of $42.1 billion.

Since January of 2010, the trade gap has widened 42 percent suggesting that economic activity during that period was weaker than originally thought.  Imported goods from China and Mexico highlight much of the activity as the numbers reveal.  Year to date, the trade balance with China totaled a deficit of $119.5 billion, a year over year increase of nearly 16 percent.  Similarly, trade with Mexico reflects a negative balance of$33.1 billion for an increase of 56 percent from a year ago.

Today’s widening suggests that economic growth in 2010 may be weaker than originally estimated due to a change in assumptions of the calculation of GDP data.  BNP’s chief economists, Julia Coronado stated in an email to clients that the widening deficit “has been a significant weight on GDP in 2010.”  Furthermore she added that the “advance estimate of Q2 GDP had assumed a widening in the trade deficit in June; however the data showed an even greater deficit than assumed. Combined with other incoming source data that has been weaker than assumed, Q2 GDP looks to be tracking 1.5% q/q saar, down from the 2.4% advance estimate.”

In addition, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly applications index.  For the week ending August 6, mortgage applications increased by only 0.6 percent from a prior period increase of 1.3 percent.  This anemic numbers partially coincides with stagnant mortgage rates, which influences demand for home purchases and mortgage refinancings.

According to Bankrate.com, the 30 Year Conventional National Average Rate was unchanged at 4.56 percent from the prior week.  Interestingly and given that interest rates are generally correlated, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury dropped 9 basis points to 2.82 percent during the same time-period.

With yesterday’s FOMC announcement that they will reinvest maturing mortgage and agency…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




Outsourcing Unemployment To China

Outsourcing Unemployment To China

Courtesy of Mish

As goes the US consumer so goes Chinese manufacturing. Here is a long but educational video produced by Vanguard on several Chinese manufacturing cities and what the economic downturn has meant for them. It’s well worth a play.

 

That video is more confirmation of the Chinese manufacturing and unemployment woes outlined in How Will China Handle The Yuan? and over a year ago in Is China’s Growth Story Coming Unglued?

Yet the myth of Chinese decoupling still persists.

Some day China will be far less dependent on the US but that day is not in the immediate foreseeable future. The videos are proof enough. Moreover, a strong case can be made that Obama Risks Global Trade War With Misguided Tariffs.

For now, stock are rising along with the biggest global reflation in the history of the world, by central bankers in nearly every country in the world, including China.

However, such stimulus is not infinite and is not without cost. Nor can temporary increases in demand caused by massive give-away programs be cause for permanent celebration. At best, stimulus programs shift demand forward stretching out the recovery period.

At worst, such programs add to malinvestments in housing, commercial real estate, and other areas. Government programs seldom, if ever, allocate resources effectively. The wildly popular cash-for-clunkers program actually destroyed productive assets, a repeat on a small scale of misguided efforts by FDR in the great depression to drive up prices of goods.

Yet for all these efforts unemployment is still rising, and even Fed officials admit the outlook for employment and consumer spending is far from rosy. Please see The Problem with Janet Yellen’s Recovery Outlook for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


Tags: , , , , , , ,




Don’t Count On Asia To Lead Worldwide Recovery

For a free subscription to Phil’s Stock World, click here (it’s easy, no credit card required)

Don’t Count On Asia To Lead Worldwide Recovery

Japan, from National GeographicCourtesy of Mish

Those who think Asia is going to lead the recovery need to think again. Please consider Japan Export Slump Deepens, Casting Doubt on Recovery.

Japan’s export slump deepened in May, casting doubt on the nation’s growth prospects as the economy struggles to emerge from its worst postwar recession.

Shipments abroad dropped 40.9 percent from a year earlier, more than April’s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of economists surveyed was for a 39.3 percent decrease. From a month earlier, exports fell 0.3 percent, the first deterioration since February.

Declines in shipments to Asia accelerated for the first time since January, damping hopes that demand from the region will spur a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. A worldwide stock market rally stalled this month on concern that the global recession will deepen.

“Final demand just isn’t picking up and it’s still hard to expect a very strong economic recovery,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. Kato said the economy will “barely expand” in 2010 once the effect of Japan’s own economic stimulus measures fades.

Steel, autos and semiconductors led the slump. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. Exports to Asia slid 35.5 percent from 33.4 percent a month earlier.

China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus measures haven’t been enough to offset sales declines in the U.S. and Europe.

Far too many have equated a rise in the price of commodities for sustainable growth in China independent of demand in the US and Europe. The idea is as silly now as it was in 2008 when various books were promoting decoupling theories. It’s important to remember that Speculation In China Does Not Mean Inflation In The US or sustainable growth anywhere.

Those looking for significant decoupling are still many years, perhaps even a decade or more early.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Tags: , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Apple Bullish Breakout Suggesting Tech Follows In Its Path?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Apple sending a bullish message to the overall Tech market? Sure could be

Apple (AAPL) is working on a breakout above last year’s highs at (1), after creating a series of higher lows over the past year.

Tech ETF QQQ has been a similar-looking pattern to Apple over the past few months, as it is near old highs while creating higher lows.

Is Apple’s upside breakout suggesting that QQQ will follow in its footsteps and breakout?

Str...



more from Kimble C.S.

Phil's Favorites

Fed Chair Powell Met with a Sovereign Wealth Fund in August and Had a Call with a Central Bank Holding Tens of Billions in U.S. Stocks

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve

This morning the Federal Reserve pumped another $58.15 billion into Wall Street securities firms under the repo loan program it initiated on September 17. That program has been pumping out hundreds of billions of dollars each week to Wall Street with no authorization from Congress, as far as the public is aware.

We decided to take a look at Federal Reserve Chairman ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Despite Pushback Against FAA, Boeing Shares Extend Plunge As Analyst Downgrades Accelerate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Boeing said on Sunday that it told U.S. regulators "multiple times" that it had expanded the role of its MCAS system and that the FAA had observed the system operating in flight tests before the 737 Max was certified for service, according to Bloomberg

The statement was posted online as a result of Friday's ...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • UBS raised the price target for Teradyne, Inc. (NASDAQ: TER) from $47 to $63. Teradyne shares closed at $58.93 on Friday.
  • Bank of America cut the price target on Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) from $400 to $370. Boeing closed at $344.00 on Friday.
  • Raymond James raised the price target for Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) from $151 to $170. Kansas City Southern shares closed at $145.25 on Friday.
  • H.C. Wainwright boosted Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

 

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Markos Zachariadis, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Blockchain is touted as the next step in the digital revolution, a technology that will change every industry from music to wast...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

More from RTT Tv







GDX PnF chart from within the video

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




Important channels around the HUI.
...

more from Chart School

The Technical Traders

Treasuries Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart. 

Our belief ...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



more from Lee

Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>