Posts Tagged ‘deflation’

Enjoying Coffee in the Lodge with Jesse

THE BANKS MUST BE RESTRAINED, AND THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM REFORMED, WITH BALANCE RESTORED TO THE ECONOMY, BEFORE THERE CAN BE ANY SUSTAINED RECOVERY – Jesse 

Enjoying Coffee at the Lodge with Jesse 

By Ilene

coffee at the lodge with JesseI have long been a fan of Jesse’s Café Américain. Jesse is a brilliant writer and a deep thinker who uniquely transcends politics, easily seeing through lies and disinformation. He has a great feel for what really matters, and the courage to speak out about it.  Jesse and I have spoken before about the economy, markets and politics, and being at a crossroads once again, it was a perfect time to catch up. 

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Ilene: Hi Jesse, since our last interview, I would guess that we’d both agree that nothing has been done to clean up the financial system – the banks and government interconnectedness, conflicts of interest, and out-and-out fraudulent activities.  Are things better or worse, or in line, with what you were expecting over a year ago?

Jesse: I think things are progressing in line with what I had expected, with the Fed and the government trying to prop up an unsustainable status quo by monetizing debt.  I am still a little shocked by the brazen manner in which the financial markets are being conducted and regulated, and the news is reported in the US. It is one thing to hold a theory that says something will happen, but it is quite another to see it actually happening, and so blatantly, almost without a word of protest.

Ilene: How do you view our financial system and the global financial system now, with no progress towards any kind of reform?

Jesse: The US is now being run by an oligarchy, with lip service being paid to the electorate in allowing the people to vote for the candidates that the parties and the powers will put forward.  There will be no recovery for the middle class until they assert themselves. I know I have stated this often in my tag phrase, “The banks must be restrained…” But it is the case.

There are areas of resistance to this trend on what one might call ‘the fringes of Empire,’ those client states which have been ruled by powerful cliques with the support and the protection of the US.  Although certainly not a great analogy, it does remind one of…
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Stock World Weekly

Here’s the latest Stock World Weekly Newsletter, New Year’s Edition.

Feedback welcome — please leave comments, we value your input. - Ilene

BEN DEVIL

Picture credit: William Banzai7


For Stock World Weekly archives, click here.   


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LPS Mortgage Monitor: Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month, Nearly 2.2 Million Loans are 90 days+ Delinquent Not Yet in Foreclosure

Courtesy of Mish 

A press release from LPS' Mortgage Monitor Report shows Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month

The November Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS) shows that the volume of loans moving to REO continued to drop as moratoria further delayed foreclosure sales. While the 90+ delinquency category has steadily declined, the number of loans moving to seriously delinquent status beyond 90 days far outpaced the number of foreclosure starts. Nearly 2.2 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.

Foreclosure inventories also continued to rise for the fifth straight month as delinquent accounts are referred for foreclosure, but the sale of foreclosure properties continued to decline. When compared to January 2008 levels, the foreclosure inventory of Jumbo Prime loans is nearly seven times higher; the inventory of Agency Prime loans is nearly six times higher; and the foreclosure inventory of Option ARM loans, like the ones procured from www.loansforemergency.com, is approaching five times the inventory in January 2008.

The report also shows that one-third of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent have not made a payment in a year; however, the number of new problem loans declined nearly 5.4 percent from October, which is opposite of the seasonality trend that typically impacts new delinquencies this time of year. Self-cures for loans one to two months delinquent increased in November to a six-month high.

In the month of November, 261,153 loans were referred to foreclosure, which represents a 0.7% month-over-month decline. The total number of delinquent loans is nearly 2.1 times historical averages – and foreclosure inventory is currently at 7.7 times historical averages.

As reported in LPS' First Look release, other key results from LPS' latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

  • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 9.02 percent
  • Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 4.08 percent
  • Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.10 percent
  • States with most non-current* loans: Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, Georgia, New Jersey
  • States with fewest non-current* loans: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana

Charts From The Report

The report is 34 pages long. Inquiring minds may wish to give it a closer look. Here are a few select charts.


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2011 – What’s Coming

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

Oh boy is 2011 going to be an exciting year! Some things that I think might happen:

  • -Volatility is going up across the board. If you have the stomach for the swings that are coming across all markets there is a ton of money to be made; balls and timing are all that are necessary. The markets will create dozens of opportunities to make and lose.
  • -There will be 50 days with a swing in the S&P greater than 1%. There will be 10 days where gold swings $50. There will be two days with a drop greater than 100 bucks. Most of the big moves will be down moves. Bonds will not be spared the volatility.
  • -Gold will be higher a year from now but off its peak. At some time in the fall, gold will be near 1,800 and the New York Times will do a front-page story that gold is on its way to 2,000. That will be the high point of the year.
  • -Copper will continue to rise. This metal will benefit as the poor man’s gold. Why buy an ounce of something for $1,600 when you can have a whole pound of something else for only $5? The logic is compelling only because there is no logic. Increasingly, it will become understood that money does not hold value. Copper will do a better job of storing value then a Treasury Bond.
  • -The US bond market is in for a heck of a year. The 30-year will trade at BOTH 3% and 5%. Higher rates will come early in the year, then the deflation trade will come back into vogue.
  • -Spain will be the next sovereign debtor that falls prey to the market. This will happen before the end of the 1st Q. The package to bail them out will exceed $500b. This will exhaust the EU resources. There will be very high expectations that contagion will then move to Italy. That will not happen in 2011 (2012?) The European Central Bank will step up to the table (finally) and support the market for Italy. Sometime between March and June Italian bonds will be a great buy.
  • -The IMF will contribute $125b to the Spanish bailout. The US portion


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Disinflation Continues in November Core CPI Report

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Consumer prices for virtually everything remain uninflated…ex Food and Energy of course.

MarketBeat’s Dave Kansas sees nothing for the Inflationistas to latch onto in this morning’s reading:

In November, the CPI rose a scant 0.1%, giving consumer prices an anemic 1.1% rise during the last 12 months. The so-called core, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1%, for an annual rate of 0.8%. Both readings are well below the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 1.7% to 2%.

Reports like these keep the green light on for the "Students of the Depression" running monetary policy.

For discussion’s sake, Peter Boockvar at The Big Picture has a slightly more alarmed take on the report…

The absolute CPI price index (aka cost of living) is now at the 2nd highest reading on record at 218.88 seasonally adjusted, just a hair off the all time high of 219.10. The core rate, which the Fed loves to focus on, is at an all time record high.

Sources:

November CPI Offers Little to Inflationmongers (MarketBeat)

Benign Inflation?  Not As I See It  (TBP) 


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Post Mortem for the World’s Reserve Currency

This is a thoughtful analysis by Mike Whitney showing what a financial mess we’re in – the proverbial rock and a hard place scenario. – Ilene 

Post Mortem for the World’s Reserve Currency

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY, originally published at CounterPunch and Global Research

money printingPaul Volcker is worried about the future of the dollar and for good reason. The Fed has initiated a program (Quantitative Easing) that presages an end to Bretton Woods 2 and replaces it with different system altogether. Naturally, that’s made trading partners pretty nervous. Despite the unfairness of the present system--where export-dependent countries recycle capital to US markets to sustain demand—most nations would rather stick with the "devil they know", then venture into the unknown.  But US allies weren’t consulted on the matter.  The Fed unilaterally decided that the only way to fight deflation and high unemployment in the US, was by weakening the dollar and making US exports more competitive. Hence QE2.

But that means that the US will be battling for the same export market as everyone else, which will inevitably shrink global demand for goods and services.  This is a major change in the Fed’s policy and there’s a good chance it will backfire. Here’s the deal: If US markets no longer provide sufficient demand for foreign exports, then there will be less incentive to trade in dollars. Thus, QE poses a real threat to the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency.   

Here’s what Volcker said:  “The growing sense around much of the world is that we have lost both relative economic strength and more important, we have lost a coherent successful governing model to be emulated by the rest of the world. Instead, we’re faced with broken financial markets, underperformance of our economy and a fractious political climate…..The  question is whether the exceptional role of the dollar can be maintained." 

This is a good summary of the problems facing the dollar. Notice that Volcker did not invoke the doomsday scenario that one hears so often on the Internet, that China, which has more than $1 trillion in US Treasuries and dollar-backed assets, will one day pull the plug on the USA and send the dollar plunging.  While that’s technically possible, it’s not going to happen. China has no intention of crashing the dollar and thrusting its own economy into a long-term slump.  In fact, China has…
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Wrong Planet

Courtesy of Michael Panzner

Recent national polls have found that:

Globe with bar and line graphs

Combine that with reports like the following, which reveals just how bad things still are in a key segment of the economy, and all I can say is: what planet are the bulls on?

"At Least 3 More Years of Housing Troubles Seen" (Reuters)

The housing market will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.

"We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014," said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than 3 million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than 1 million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.

Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as $300 billion in adjustable rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robo-signing scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.

There have been allegations banks used so-called robo-signers to sign hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.

Mortgage rates will start to rise in 2011, further dampening demand and limiting affordability, said Pete Flint, chief executive of Trulia.com, a real estate search and research website. "Nationally, prices will decline between 5 percent and 7 percent, with most of the decline occurring in the first half of next year," he said.

Interest rates on 30-year fixed rate loans will creep up to 5 percent, and that alone will add $120 per month to the typical mortgage payment on a $400,000 loan, Flint said in a joint news conference.

The two firms released a survey showing a marked deterioration in consumers’ views of the housing market, too. Almost half — 48 percent — said they’d consider walking away from their homes and their mortgages if they were underwater on their loans. That’s up…
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The Three Stages of Delusion

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box 

[Artwork courtesy of William Banzai7]

I am back from the Forbes cruise to Mexico and starting to deal with a thousand things, but first on the list is making sure you get this week’s Outside the Box. And a good one it is. In fact, it is two short pieces coming to us from friends based in London over the pond.

Both of them have to deal with the unfolding crisis that is Europe, which is going to unfold for several years as they lurch from solution to solution. The first is from Dylan Grice of Societe Generale and reminds us why we should put no stock in what leaders say about a crisis. He has lined up the statements of leaders from one crisis after another. He finds a simple, repeating pattern. And shows where we are now.

The second is from hedge fund manager Omar Sayed, who I met last time I was sin London. A very bright chap and good guy. He offers us very succinctly four paths that Europe can take. Some of them are not pretty. It all makes for a very interesting OTB. I trust your week will go well.

Your over-dosed on guacamole (and it was worth it) analyst,

John Mauldin, Editor

Outside the Box


Flashback to Crises Past: Three Stages of Delusion 
Popular Delusions

By Dylan Grice

The recent sequence of reassurances from various eurozone policymakers suggests we are in the early, not latter, stages of the euro crisis. Only an Anglo-Saxon style QE will prevent dissolution of the euro. Such a radically un-German solution will only be taken with a full acceptance of how serious the euro’s problems are. But denial persists.

The dawning of reality hurts. Prodded and bullied along a tortuous emotional path by events unforeseen and beyond our control, we descend through three phases: the first is denial that there is a problem; the second is denial that there is a big problem; the third is denial that the problem was anything to do with us.

US policymakers’ three steps during the housing crash fit the template well. Asked in 2005 about the danger posed to the economy by the housing bubble, Bernanke responded: “I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.” Here was the…
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2&3, 3&4 or 4&5? That is the Question.

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

Published at Zero Hedge

I think this day chart of the 30 year says it all. After the very stinky NFP numbers the bond made a predictable jump higher. But it wasn’t long after that the air started leaking out and the bond closed on the lows.

Why the stinky price action when we get a big miss on NFP number? QE and the talk of stimulus done it. The numbers were so bad that by 9:30 talking heads and pundits concluded that the tax cuts were coming and we might just get a break on Social Security payroll deductions any day. Forget about restraining QE-2; the talk went straight into high gear with the only question; “How big might QE-3 be?”

So with that gibberish in mind bonds headed to the crapper while gold set new highs. The confirm that QE is now driving bonds lower came late in the day when there was a convenient leak of a Sunday TV appearance by Ben B. The only quote leaked was: “We might do more”. Stocks liked that talk and ended up; while the bonds ratcheted down another notch.

I am pleased that the market has made the connection that more QE and more stimulus is bad for bonds. The market is the only discipline left that may slow the insanity creeping over D.C. When market forces turn on the “New Monetarism” and shut the door on the insanity, the policies will change. Until they get hit hard over the head the Fed will continue to print. We are getting closer by the day. Consider this graph of the long bond since QE-2 was announced:

Long rates have backed up by 40 bp in just the past month. The exact opposite reaction that ‘the Bernank’ wants. How deflationary is this increase in interest rates? Mildly so. My guess is that the impact of rising rates exactly offsets the stimulative benefit of keeping short rates at historic lows. Yes, more debt is financed short term than long, but a back up in mortgage rates and the increase in long term fixed rate capital for municipalities and corporations will offset any benefits from ZIRP.

On the question(s): “Will interest rates fall from the current levels of ~3% for ten-year


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Rosie’s Must Read On A Hope-Based Rally Now, Followed By Shock Therapy Later

Tyler Durden presents Rosie’s Must Read On A Hope-Based Rally Now, Followed By Shock Therapy Later. This is practically in answer to Joshua Brown’s depiction of a lonely, frustrated bear searching the world for negative data.  Frustrated, perhaps; lonely, not so fast. – Ilene 

Toy bear on top of newspaper turned to stock listings

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

Now that his relentless skepticism, following today’s abysmal data release (orchestrated or not), has been fully validated, much to the chagrin of top ticking flippers such as Goldman and other sundry blog sites, Rosenberg comes out with a must read essay on the state of the economy now versus later, entitled very appropriately "Hope-Based Rally Now, Shock Therapy Later." This is certainly one Rosie’s better pieces out there and a must read for those who refuse to be led by the propaganda machine into believing lies and manipulation: "This has become such a hope-based market that the Dow jumped over 100 points earlier this week on a Reuters news story in Brussels, which reported that the U.S.A. would back an even greater financial commitment to Europe! Quick — get Sarah Palin on the line." Incidentally, if there is any confusion where Zero Hedge stands, we suggest rereading our post from last night which made it all too clear that we still refuse to drink the hopium (and self-aggrandizement) that seems to have gotten straight to the head of such a broad (literally and metaphorically) cross-section of the financial punditry.

HOPE-BASED RALLY NOW, SHOCK THERAPY LATER

At symbol Amazement

I’m on the way back from a two-day business trip in London, U.K. with a few of my Gluskin Sheff colleagues. It’s been a good year-and-a-half since I was last there (the next best thing to old New York), and the first time I can remember it snowing this early — a few centimetres almost shut down the city (enough to make a Torontonian chuckle).

While we continue to refrain from hyperventilating as others throw in the towel, it is completely understandable that investor sentiment has improved. Moreover, the incoming economic data, at least when benchmarked against the double-dip fears that prevailed in July and August, currently look “green shooty” in nature. But is the U.S. economy really out of the woods? Hardly.

The recovery is obviously still so fragile that the Fed felt the need to expand its balance sheet by an additional…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Sending Bullish Message To Investors?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Just as the health of the banking sector is a big deal to the economy, it’s equally important to the S&P 500 (SPY) and broader stock market.

Although the bull market has grinding higher, it’s awaiting confirmation from the banks and banks stocks.

Today’s chart is of the S&P 500 Bank ETF (KBE) and shows how the banks are at an important juncture in time and price.

KBE (the bank ETF) is testing the upper end of a falling channel, offering bulls an opportunity for a breakout – see point (2).

The banks were at a similar juncture nearl...



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Phil's Favorites

BIS Drops a Bombshell: Four U.S. Mega Banks Are Core of Repo Loan Crisis

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo. (Source: Office of Financial Research.)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 9, 2019  Yesterday, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) dropped a bombshell report that torpedoed the Federal Reserve’s official narrative on what has caused the overnight lending market (repo loan market) on Wall Street to seiz...



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Zero Hedge

Africom Confirms Russian Air Defense System Shot Down US Drone Over Libyan Capital  

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

U.S. Africa Command (Africom) has confirmed that an unarmed American drone over the Libyan capital last month was shot down by Russian air defenses, reported Reuters.

Africom dropped three headlines via Reuters in the overnight, revealing how the surveillance drone was shot down over Tripoli. 

  • EXCLUSIVE-U.S....



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Insider Scoop

KalVista Shares Sink On Failed Mid-Stage Study Of Diabetic Macular Edema Drug

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of thinly-traded micro-cap biotech Kalvista Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: KALV) are seen moving to the downside Monday.

What Happened

Massachusetts-based KalVista, which focuses on developing small molecule protease inhibitors, said a Phase 2 study that evaluated its KVD001 in patients with diabetic macular edema, who were poor responders to previous treatment with anti-VEGF t...



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Digital Currencies

The Road To Retirement: Millennials Put Their Faith In Bitcoin But Goldman Says Go With Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

"Drop Gold" - the ever-present tagline of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust TV commercial - appears to be working its magic on a certain cohort of society.

2019 has seen assets under management in GBTC soar...

Source: Bloomberg

And for Millennials, according to the lates...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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