Posts Tagged ‘Deflationary Market Collapse’

Hedge Funds Betting on a Deflationary Market Collapse

Hedge Funds Betting on a Deflationary Market Collapse

black swansCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The observations herein regarding the nature of this stock market rally are quite in parallel with our own.

Buying the dollar to play the debt deflation trade may also be a good one in the short run, especially if leveraged foreign punters have to quickly raise cash to cover bad bets made in the US markets.

However we would have to add that this scenario assumes no black swans with regards to the heavy overhang of US dollars being held by overseas central banks.

If we were in such a position, we would be selling the rallies, given the huge amount dollars on the books.

Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say

By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a
continue reading


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Silver Just Had Its Best Month In 40 Years: Here Are July's Best And Worst Performing Assets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

When looking at the torrid market performance in July, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that silver (+35%) had its best month since December 1979 while the dollar the worst for a decade. US equities had a good month in spite of rising virus caseloads due to a strong earnings season relative to expectations, especially in tech towards the end of the month. YTD Silver, Gold and the NASDAQ have been the three best performers while at the bottom of the leaderboard Brent, WTI and European Banks are all down at least 30%.

...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus check: Tell IRS if you didn't get the payment yet

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are now in the final week when a decision on the next coronavirus stimulus package is expected. However, many still haven’t received their first stimulus check. The IRS has said that it would continue to send payments through the end of the year. Yet, if you meet the eligibility requirements and haven’t gotten the coronavirus stimulus check, you should let the IRS know.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

When to contact IRS for coronavirus stimulus check

The IRS has already send the majority of the payments. Though the agency would be sending ...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

The Fed Has Secreted Away the Transactions of Three of Its Emergency Lending Programs

Courtesy of Pam Martens

(Left to right, top) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell; Randal Quarles, Vice Chair for Supervision; Richard Clarida, Vice Chair; (left to right, bottom) Lael Brainard, Michelle Bowman.

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Randal Quarles, the Vice Chairman for Supervision at the Fed, have stated in testimony before Congress that they would be providing transaction level details of their Section 13(3) Emergency Lending Facilities on a regular, ongoing basis. But the three ol...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's How To Buy The Top Stocks In The Hottest Sectors During The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech has been the place to be during the Covid-19 crisis. Investors Business Daily recently highlighted how one can own the strongest of the strong by just owning one ETF (See article here).

This chart looks at the Dorsey Wright Focus Five index ETF (FV), which reflects that it is attempting a bullish breakout while creating higher lows over the past 6-years.

The $2.1 billion fund tracks the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, which provides access to five First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Dorsey Wright & Associates selects the funds based on relative price momentum, then weights the compone...



more from Kimble C.S.

Biotech/COVID-19

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

 

Video: Who controls pandemic data?

Public data is vital to the functioning of a democracy. Witthaya Prasongsin / Getty Images

Courtesy of Julia Lane, New York University

Editor’s note: When the Trump administration ordered hospitals to report COVID-19 data to the Department of Health and Human Services rather than the Centers for Disease Control and Pre...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



more from Bitcoin

The Technical Traders

ARE THE MARKETS ABOUT TO TURN?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Deborah Honig from Adelaide Capital asks Chris the question on everyone’s mind – where are the markets heading? Where is the ‘big money’, the early movers in the market, going? Chris and Deborah also look at the technicals for Gold and Silver and discuss whether Gold and Silver are starting a big run-up now, or should we wait before taking positions?

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

...

more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Chart School

US Dollar Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.

Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.

The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals  (like: inflation, money s...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



more from Our Members

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

more from Promotions

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.