Posts Tagged ‘discouraged workers’

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made 

After last Friday’s print of 9.7 percent for the unemployment rate, more than a few pundits are calling the 10.1 percent jobless rate seen back in October the high for the cycle. It seems to be way too early to make that call based on the millions of "discouraged" workers who, when they start looking for work again, will suddenly count as "unemployed" again.

Stephen Roach seems to agree, figuring that the real jobless rate today is 11.5 percent.
 

The odds of a double-dip recession are now 40 percent? That’s good to know. There’s been a lot of talk about another downturn for the U.S. economy, but it comes as news to me that they’ve already taken the time to poll economists and that they were this pessimistic.


Tags: , , , ,




USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

Courtesy of Mish

The USA Today says Jobs May Rebound In 2010.

The article has some very nice interactive graphs showing state by state forecasts. The charts below that I copied are not interactive.

The chart above is confusing because it does not match the headline. The reason is the chart is showing third quarter 2009 vs. third quarter 2010, while the headline "rebound" is for the whole year.

I am very interested in projecting unemployment. Unfortunately charts in the article do not list numbers precisely. However we can roughly extrapolate from these charts.

I added the lines in blue. Without knowing the precise numbers I can easily be off by a million or more, but assuming the charts are to scale, the USA today forecast is approximately 143.5 million jobs by the end of the 2013.

I think that is an extremely optimistic number but let’s see what the unemployment rate would roughly look like if no jobs are added in 2010, then we hit 143.5 million employed at the end of 2013, with 2012 adding the most jobs.

For this scenario, I assumed the number of jobs to keep up with birthrate and immigration (plus return of marginally attached and discouraged workers) is 120,000 a month.

Projecting The USA Today Unemployment Rate

That certainly does not look very pretty does it?

Yet, I assumed some moderately favorable things.

1. No double dip recession
2. A shrinking monthly labor pool rate shrinking from +120,000 down to +70,000 by 2020 (this lowers the unemployment rate)
3. No second recession for an entire decade

Note the unemployment rate is above 10% at the end of 2013 and still above 8% at the end of the next decade.

You can download my spreadsheet and create your own charts automatically using your own assumptions. Click here to download the USA Today Unemployment Scenario as shown above.

Methodology Described

To understand the methodology to change the chart and to see my baseline scenario please see Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 – It Looks Grim.

My baseline scenario has the unemployment rate at 10% all the way out to 2015.

Mauldin Scenarios

For scenarios by John Mauldin please see Mapping Unemployment – You Make The Call
continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

After JPMorgan Chase Admits to Its 4th and 5th Felony Charge, Its Board Gives a $50 Million Bonus to Its CEO, Jamie Dimon

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Jamie Dimon Being Sworn In at House Financial Services Committee Hearing, May 27, 2021

The unthinkable is happening with alarming regularity at the Frankenbank JPMorgan Chase. Over the last seven years, with Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon at the helm, JPMorgan Chase has managed to do what no other federally-insured American bank has managed to do in the history of banking in the United States. The bank has admitted to ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Scaled-Back Olympics Opening Ceremony Marred By Protests As Sponsors Flee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The 2020(1) Summer Games officially commenced Friday in Tokyo where a scaled back opening ceremony went off without a hitch: it began with the Japanese flag being carried out by a group of children, before dancers representing traditional carpenters re-enacted the construction of traditional wooden dwellings common in Japan.

A wooden set of Olympic rings featured in the ceremony was reportedly constructed from the wood of trees planted in the summer of 1964, the last time Tokyo hosted the Games. Japan's emperor was on hand to officially open the Games a...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Sam Bankman-Fried, Founder and CEO of FTX, Joins Howard Lindzon to Discuss Futures, the Global Scale of Crypto and More

 

Sam Bankman-Fried, Founder and CEO of FTX, Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss Futures, the Global Scale of Crypto and More (EP.159)

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I am really excited to share this ‘Panic’ podcast with Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of the crypto currency exchange FTX.

Listen right now here on Megaphone.

I rec...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech/COVID-19

US is split between the vaccinated and unvaccinated - and deaths and hospitalizations reflect this divide

 

US is split between the vaccinated and unvaccinated – and deaths and hospitalizations reflect this divide

As coronavirus cases surge, unvaccinated people are accounting for nearly all hospitalizations and deaths. Fat Camera/E+ via Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University and Ryan McNamara, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

Investing with Channels - Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The US has a lot of debt, to sell more units of the debt to non US buyers the FED and Treasury must get the unit price of the debt down.

This video assumes a 'risk on' bullish bias into the Nov 2022 US mid terms. The bias assumes a US dollar trending down from it current high price of $93 on the DXY.






Chart 1 - US Dollar Channels


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




Chart 2 - Ethereum/USD


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showin...



more from Chart School

Politics

New York defines illegal firearms use as a 'public nuisance' in bid to pierce gun industry's powerful liability shield

 

New York defines illegal firearms use as a ‘public nuisance’ in bid to pierce gun industry’s powerful liability shield

Illegal gun use is now a public nuisance in New York. AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews

Courtesy of Timothy D. Lytton, Georgia State University

Could calling the illegal use of firearms a “public nuisance” bring an end to the gun industry’s immunity from civil lawsuits? ...



more from Politics

Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

...

more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.