Posts Tagged ‘discouraged workers’

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Stephen Roach on discouraged workers

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made 

After last Friday’s print of 9.7 percent for the unemployment rate, more than a few pundits are calling the 10.1 percent jobless rate seen back in October the high for the cycle. It seems to be way too early to make that call based on the millions of "discouraged" workers who, when they start looking for work again, will suddenly count as "unemployed" again.

Stephen Roach seems to agree, figuring that the real jobless rate today is 11.5 percent.
 

The odds of a double-dip recession are now 40 percent? That’s good to know. There’s been a lot of talk about another downturn for the U.S. economy, but it comes as news to me that they’ve already taken the time to poll economists and that they were this pessimistic.


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USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

USA Today: Jobs May Rebound In 2010 – OK But Where Will Unemployment Be?

Courtesy of Mish

The USA Today says Jobs May Rebound In 2010.

The article has some very nice interactive graphs showing state by state forecasts. The charts below that I copied are not interactive.

The chart above is confusing because it does not match the headline. The reason is the chart is showing third quarter 2009 vs. third quarter 2010, while the headline "rebound" is for the whole year.

I am very interested in projecting unemployment. Unfortunately charts in the article do not list numbers precisely. However we can roughly extrapolate from these charts.

I added the lines in blue. Without knowing the precise numbers I can easily be off by a million or more, but assuming the charts are to scale, the USA today forecast is approximately 143.5 million jobs by the end of the 2013.

I think that is an extremely optimistic number but let’s see what the unemployment rate would roughly look like if no jobs are added in 2010, then we hit 143.5 million employed at the end of 2013, with 2012 adding the most jobs.

For this scenario, I assumed the number of jobs to keep up with birthrate and immigration (plus return of marginally attached and discouraged workers) is 120,000 a month.

Projecting The USA Today Unemployment Rate

That certainly does not look very pretty does it?

Yet, I assumed some moderately favorable things.

1. No double dip recession
2. A shrinking monthly labor pool rate shrinking from +120,000 down to +70,000 by 2020 (this lowers the unemployment rate)
3. No second recession for an entire decade

Note the unemployment rate is above 10% at the end of 2013 and still above 8% at the end of the next decade.

You can download my spreadsheet and create your own charts automatically using your own assumptions. Click here to download the USA Today Unemployment Scenario as shown above.

Methodology Described

To understand the methodology to change the chart and to see my baseline scenario please see Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 – It Looks Grim.

My baseline scenario has the unemployment rate at 10% all the way out to 2015.

Mauldin Scenarios

For scenarios by John Mauldin please see Mapping Unemployment – You Make The Call
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Phil's Favorites

Trump and Biden clash in chaotic debate - experts react on the court, race and election integrity

 

Trump and Biden clash in chaotic debate – experts react on the court, race and election integrity

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden at the first debate of the presidential campaign. AP/Julio Cortez and AP/Patrick Semansky

Courtesy of Alison Gash, ...



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Zero Hedge

We've Reached "The Endpoint" - Monetary And Fiscal Policy Won't Help

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

Remember all those “green shoots?”

That was the ubiquitous phrase used by White House officials and TV talking heads in 2009 to describe how the U.S. economy was coming back to life after the 2008 global financial crisis.

The problem was we did not get green shoots; what we got was more like brown weeds.

The economy did recover, yes, but it was th...



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ValueWalk

Kudlow Calls Trump's Failed PPP A "Stroke of Genius"

By Brendan Byrne. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Kudlow Calls Trump’s Failed PPP A “Stroke of Genius”

Watchdog Report Shows Just How Badly the Program Failed to Help Businesses in Need of Relief

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Larry Kudlow Dubs Failed PPP A Stroke Of Genius

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In an interview on CNBC this morning, National Economic Council Director and top White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow called Trump’s ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Friday, 01 May 2020, 11:47:29 PM

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Comment: In 2008 the Central banks were newbies, now there locked and loaded .. its going to be a great show



Date Found: Saturday, 02 May 2020, 12:21:35 AM

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Comment: The Fed has done everything it poss...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Key Inflation Indicators Facing Big Test In September!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation has long been a word that the Federal Reserve uses but the general markets have forgotten about.

Why? Well because it’s been virtually non-existent for years. Key indicators like commodities (i.e. copper) have been in a down-trends and the Materials Sector (XLB) has lagged… until this year.

In today’s chart 3-pack, we take a look at the Equal Weight Commodity Index, ...



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Digital Currencies

The Great Unbanking: How DeFi Is Completing The Job Bitcoin Started

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Paul De Havilland via CoinTelegraph.com,

While most of us will prefer to forget the horrors of 2020, DeFi may well prove to be the guarantee of a better, more liberated future...

...



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Politics

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

 

'Colossal Backdoor Bailout': Outrage as Pentagon Funnels Hundreds of Millions Meant for Covid Supplies to Private Defense Contractors

"If you can't get a Covid test or find an N95, it’s because these contractors stole from the American people to make faster jets and fancy uniforms."

By Jake Johnson

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley hold an end of year press conference at the Pentagon on December 20, 2019 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Instead of adhering to congressional inten...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

 

How and when will we know that a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective?

How much longer must society wait for a vaccine? ANDRZEJ WOJCICKI/Getty Images

By William Petri, University of Virginia

With COVID-19 vaccines currently in the final phase of study, you’ve probably been wondering how the FDA will decide if a vaccine is safe and effective.

Based on the status of the Phase 3 trials currently underway, it i...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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