Posts Tagged ‘double dip scenario’

If This Is Recovery…

If This Is Recovery…

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts from the Frontline

Holiday Shopping Season Gets Underway On "Black Friday"

If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?
Last Business Standing
Stimulus, What Stimulus?
The Reality of Unemployment
Let the Good Times Roll
The Quick Double-Dip Scenario
Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the Internet

No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be a lot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find it very interesting.

If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?

I keep reading about surveys that show that retail sales are up. But as noted above, no one pays extra sales taxes, or decides they need to pay more income taxes. The surest way to measure retail sales is sales taxes. Want to know how incomes are doing? Look at income tax receipts. Let’s look at sales taxes first.

First off, I can find no single source of recent sales tax information. It is all one-off, but it is consistent. Sales taxes in my home state of Texas are down 12.8% year-over-year, and we’re in the fifth straight month of decreases of 11% or more. Projections are for sales taxes to continue to decline into 2010.

There is a very revealing study by the Pew Center on state taxes, called "Beyond California." Everyone knows how bad California is. The Pew Center looks at how the rest of the states are doing, and focuses on 10 states that also have severe problems. Sales tax receipts are down 14% in Arizona, and state income taxes are down 32%.

On average, revenues are down almost 12%. Oregon has seen their revenues collapse a stunning 19%. New York is down 17%, with a deficit of 32%. Illinois has a projected deficit of 47% of its budget, second only to California with 49%. You can see how your state…
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ValueWalk

Gold Bullion Demand Hits Record Volumes in USA

By James Anderson. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With ongoing bailouts exploding the fiat US dollar’s M1, M2, & M3 supplies at record paces. It is not surprising to see physical gold bullion USA imports now hitting 21st Century high levels.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

U.S. Physical Gold Bullion Imports

Most of this recent record-sized US gold import volume is being delivered from Switzerland which has four of the five largest gold refineries in the world.

It is safe...



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Phil's Favorites

BlackRock Is Bailing Out Its ETFs with Fed Money and Taxpayers Eating Losses; It's Also the Sole Manager for $335 Billion of Federal Employees' Retirement Funds

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Laurence (Larry) Fink, Chairman and CEO, BlackRock

BlackRock, the international investment management firm run by billionaire Larry Fink, has played an outsized role in Federal Reserve bailouts of Wall Street. As it turns out, it’s also been quietly managing hundreds of billions of dollars for more than five million federal government employees in their retirement plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP).

During the last financial crisis of 2007 to 2010, the Federal Reserve gave BlackRock no-bid contracts to manage the toxic assets held in ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Rallies 222% in 30-days, Peak Oil Time Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Can you believe that Crude Oil has rallied 222% in the past 30-trading days?

It’s hard to believe that Crude Oil is trading nearly $75 off its lows, yet the current price is around $36!

The chart looks at the Crude Oil continuous contract on a monthly basis for the past couple of decades.

Crude has spent the majority of the past 12-years inside of falling channel (1). The collapse in Crude Oil prices in April saw it hit the bottom of the channel at (2), where it created a large bullish reversal pattern. Since hitting the bottom...



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Zero Hedge

Consumer "Cash" Spending Is Much Worse Than The Reported Figures

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Joe Carson, former chief economist of Alliance Bernstein

Consumer spending fell a record 13.6% in April, according to the preliminary estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). But the spending numbers based on “cash” outlays are much worse.

The government’s monthly report on consumer spending (i.e. personal consumption expenditures) is a blend of actual cash outlays and estimated figures. Spending on durable and nondurable goods reflects “cash” outlays as reported by the monthly sales at retail establishments. But spendi...



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The Technical Traders

Gold & Silver "Washout" - Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd.  Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals.  This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.

With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc.  We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels.  The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplit...



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Biotech/COVID-19

You don't need to worry about spreading the coronavirus with cash

 

You don't need to worry about spreading the coronavirus with cash

Cash is unlikely to give you the coronavirus. Rolf Bruderer/Getty Images

Courtesy of Marilyn Roberts, University of Washington

Some people worry that cash may be spreading the coronavirus.

Earlier this year, bot...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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