Posts Tagged
‘Doug Short’
by ilene - September 15th, 2010 5:06 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short, working with Rick Davis’s data from Consumer Metrics Institute
Note from dshort: The charts are now updated through September 13th. The Growth Index has been in contraction territory for 244 days. The encouraging news, however, is that the contraction has gradually slowed and leveled out over the past three days. Is this the beginning of a reversal? Perhaps. However, we saw a similar situation in mid-June. The Growth Index leveled out and increased in value for a little over two weeks before continuing its decline.
The direction of the more volatile Weighted Composite Index will determine the reality of a sustained reversal. The Composite hit its recent low on August 1 with a year-over-year contraction of 9.43%. The contraction has lessened to -4.28%.
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For the past several months, the Consumer Metrics Institute’s
Daily Growth Index has been one of the most interesting data series I follow, and I recommend bookmarking the
Institute’s website. Their page of
frequently asked questions is an excellent introduction to the service.
The charts below focus on the ‘Trailing Quarter’ Growth Index, which is computed as a 91-day moving average for the year-over-year growth/contraction of the Weighted Composite Index, an index that tracks near real-time consumer behavior in a wide range of consumption categories. The Growth Index is a calculated metric that smooths the volatility and gives a better sense of expansions and contractions in consumption.
The 91-day period is useful for comparison with key quarterly metrics such as GDP. Since the consumer accounts for over two-thirds of the US economy, one would expect that a well-crafted index of consumer behavior would serve as a leading indicator. As the chart suggests, during the five-year history of the index, it has generally lived up to that expectation. Actually, the chart understates the degree to which the Growth Index leads GDP. Why? Because the advance estimates for GDP are released a month after the end of the quarter in question, so the Growth Index lead time has been substantial.
Has the Growth Index…
Tags: consumer metrics institute, Doug Short, Economy, rick davis
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by ilene - September 10th, 2010 12:26 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short
Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 14th consecutive week, coming in at -10.1, a fractional improvement over last week’s -10.2, which was a downward revision from -10.1. So this index has essentially hovered around -10.1 for the past five weeks. The latest weekly number is based on data through September 3.
The rate of decline from the peak in October 2009 is unprecedented in the Institute’s published data back to 1967. Recently, however, the Institute has disclosed that two earlier decades of data not available to the general public contained comparable declines in WLI growth (in 1951 and 1966) when no recession followed (HT Barry Ritholtz).
The Published Record
The ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable (but by no means perfect) record for forecasting recessions. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.
A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turn negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.
Three of the false negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 68 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.
The third significant false negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.
The Latest WLI Decline
The question, of course, is whether the latest WLI decline is a leading indicator of a recession or a false negative. The published index has never dropped to the current level without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a near-term recession was in the…
Tags: Barry Ritholtz, Doug Short, ECRI, ECRI Weekly Leading Index, GDP, Mish, negative growth, Recession, WLI
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by ilene - September 8th, 2010 11:00 am
Courtesy of Doug Short
Over the past few days I’ve been studying the Chicago Fed’s
National Activity Index (CFNAI), a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this
background PDF file on the Chicago Fed’s website.
I generated the first chart below from the historical data dating from March 1967. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful for showing trends. I’ve also highlighted official recessions, with the latest bounded by the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s estimated end date. The official end, of course, is the provenance of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis, which often makes its call after a year or more from the start or end.
The next chart highlights the -0.7 level. The latest Chicago Fed release explains:
"When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended."
With the exception of the 1973-75 recession, the -0.7 level has coincided fairly closely with recession boundaries. The 1973-75 event was perhaps an outlier because of the rapid rise of inflation following the 1973 Oil Embargo. Otherwise a cross below -0.7 level has synchronized within a month or two of a recession start. A cross above the level has lagged recession ends by 2-4 months.
Here’s a chart of the CFNAI without the MA3 overlay — for the purpose of highlighting the high inter-month volatility. Consider: the index has ranged from a high 2.57 to a low of -4.78 with a average monthly change of 0.59. That’s 8% of the entire index range!
In the final chart I’ve let Excel draw a linear regression through the CFNAI data series. The slope confirms the casual impression of the previous charts that National Activity, as a function of the 85 indicators in the index, has been declining since the late 1960s. I’m reluctant to draw any conclusions from the slope, but…
Tags: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Doug Short, Economy
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by Chart School - August 14th, 2010 6:43 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short
It’s time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.
This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.
Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today’s market in relation to historic market cycles.
Tags: bear market, charts, Doug Short, Stock Market
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by ilene - August 14th, 2010 12:48 am
Courtesy of Doug Short
Note: The index data has been updated through August 11th.
For the past several months, the Consumer Metrics Institute’s Daily Growth Index has been one of the most interesting data series I follow, and I recommend bookmarking the Institute’s website. Their page of frequently asked questions is an excellent introduction to the service.
The charts below focus on the ‘Trailing Quarter’ Growth Index, which is computed as a 91-day moving average for the year-over-year growth/contraction of the Weighted Composite Index, an index that tracks near real-time consumer behavior in a wide range of consumption categories. The Growth Index is a calculated metric that smooths the volatility and gives a better sense of expansions and contractions in consumption.
The 91-day period is useful for comparison with key quarterly metrics such as GDP. Since the consumer accounts for over two-thirds of the US economy, one would expect that a well-crafted index of consumer behavior would serve as a leading indicator. As the chart suggests, during the five-year history of the index, it has generally lived up to that expectation. Actually, the chart understates the degree to which the Growth Index leads GDP. Why? Because the advance estimates for GDP are released a month after the end of the quarter in question, so the Growth Index lead time has been substantial.
Has the Growth Index also served as a leading indicator of the stock market? The next chart is an overlay of the index and the S&P 500. The Growth Index clearly peaked before the market in 2007 and bottomed in late August of 2008, over six months before the market low in March 2009.
The most recent peak in the Growth Index was around the first of September, 2009, almost eight months before the interim high in the S&P 500 on April 23rd. Since its peak, the Growth Index has declined dramatically and is now well into contraction territory.
It’s important to remember that the Growth Index is a moving average of year-over-year expansion/contraction whereas the market is a continuous record of value. Even so, the pattern is remarkable. The question is whether the latest dip in the Growth Index is signaling a substantial market decline like in 2008-2009 or a buying opportunity like in June…
Tags: consumer metrics institute, Doug Short, GDP, growth index, Recession, rick davis
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by ilene - July 31st, 2010 7:48 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short
With all the other releases on Friday, especially the 3-year revised GDP, I’m a bit late in updating my monthly Michigan Sentiment chart.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is 67.8, down significantly from the June reading of 76.0. The survey’s chief economist, Richard Curtin, summarizes:
Scarce jobs and stagnating incomes have been the top concerns of consumers for some time. What changed in July was their recognition that the anticipated slowdown in the economy will keep jobs scarce for some time, while their uncertainties about future prospects were increased by the policies of the Obama administration. Rather than itching to resume old spending habits, consumers have begun to actively embrace a more defensive outlook, making them more likely to further pare their debt and increase saving and reserve funds. This new defensive posture could result in even slower economic growth and fewer jobs in the future.
See the full release in PDF format here.
Because the sentiment index has trended upward since its inception in 1978, I’ve added a liner regression to help understand the pattern of reversion to the trend. I’ve also highlighted recessions to help evaluate the value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index as a leading indicator of the economy.
Note: The Real GDP numbers include the Second Quarter and are now updated with the BEA’s revised estimates from 2007 through First Quarter 2010.
Click for a larger image
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Read more about Doug Short here >
Tags: consumers, debt, Doug Short, Economy, incomes, Jobs, Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, savings
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by ilene - January 2nd, 2010 2:11 pm
Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon
Relying on the valuation methodology made famous by Yale professor Robert Shiller, author of the prescient bestseller Irrational Exuberance, along with some analysis of his own, Doug Short, publisher of dshort.com, raises the question that many bulls seem to be ignoring (or avoiding): "Is the Stock Market Cheap?":
For a more precise view of how today’s P/E10 relates to the past, our chart includes horizontal bands to divide the monthly valuations into quintiles — five groups, each with 20% of the total. Ratios in the top 20% suggest a highly overvalued market, the bottom 20% a highly undervalued market. What can we learn from this analysis? Over the past several months, the decline from the all-time P/E10 high dramatically accelerated toward value territory, with the ratio dropping from the 1st to the upper 4th quintile in March. The price rebound since March has now put the ratio at the top of the 2nd quintile — quite expensive!
A more cautionary observation is that every time the P/E10 has fallen from the first to the fourth quintile, it has ultimately declined to the fifth quintile and bottomed in single digits. Based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require an S&P 500 price decline below 600. Of course, a happier alternative would be for corporate earnings to make a strong and prolonged surge. When might we see the P/E10 bottom? These secular declines have ranged in length from over 19 years to as few as three. The current decline is now nearing its tenth year.
I would add that the equity market’s low-valuation extremes were hit during what might be described as "turbulent times," including World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and the stagflation of the late-1970s. Except for the most delusional of permabulls, it would be hard for anyone to argue that the unraveling that began more than two years ago doesn’t also fit that bill.
Tags: Doug Short, P/E, Robert Shiller, stock market valuation
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by Chart School - August 12th, 2009 1:05 pm
Courtesy of Bill Luby’s VIX AND MORE
While we are waiting to see what the FOMC has to say, I thought I would use this lull to highlight the work of Doug Short, which can be found at dshort.com.
Yesterday, in The Road to Recovery, Doug looked at the profile of recoveries from four strong bear markets. Given the relative ease with which stocks have recovered from their March lows (see chart below), Doug adopts a skeptical tone (which I share) about the path forward for stocks:
For a related post and graphic that puts the above in a different perspective, readers are encouraged to check out Doug’s The “Real” Mega-Bear Quartet 2000.
[source: dshort.com]
“Our current market is now 47% above the March 9th low. It has significantly outperformed the 1974 and 2002 rebounds over the equivalent period, and it briefly surpassed the 48% rally in the 1929 Dow. Will it continue to show resilience?”
Tags: Bill Luby's Vix and More, Doug Short, Road to Recovery
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by ilene - June 18th, 2009 5:24 pm
And now for some fun with bear market chart patterns!
Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock
As the market weakens, investors are once again beginning to wonder whether the worst is really over…or whether we’re once again headed back to the depths of the March lows.So it’s a good time to review where we are and how this bear market compares to the many we’ve had before.
So, once again, we turn to chart-master Doug Short, who publishes regular updates at dshort.com. The slideshow below includes Doug’s latest charts on the bear markets since 1950. For updated, interactive versions, please visit dshort.com.
See Also:
Tracking The Second Great Depression
So far, the collapse of the world economy since April 2008 has been worse than the collapse in the Great Depression. One glance at the fall in world output, trade, and stock prices puts the recent "green shoots" in perspective. More here.
Tags: bear market, charts, Doug Short
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.