Posts Tagged ‘durable goods orders’

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal

Stethoscope on Indian banknotes of different denominations Horizontal

Courtesy of Mish

Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.

As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.

The Washington Post discusses the situation in Durable goods orders disappoint in latest sign of economic weakness

Overall, orders for durable goods rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, well below the 3 percent that analysts had expected. But even that slight rise was driven by a spike in aircraft orders, a volatile category. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 3.8 percent.

Most worrisome, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 8 percent. That indicator tends to predict future equipment spending by businesses, Business spending on equipment and software rose at more than a 20 percent annual rate in the first half of 2010, one of the bright spots in the economic picture; the new data suggest that such spending may not be as strong in the second half of the year.

Detail Digging 

Inquiring minds are digging a bit deeper into the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders July 2010.

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $6.1 billion or 13.1 percent to $52.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased $4.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $802.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent June increase. Computers and electronic products, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $121.1 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, up seven consecutive months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $311.2 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent June increase. Machinery, up


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Durable Goods Orders “Unexpectedly” Sink; How did Economists Blow the Call?

Durable Goods Orders "Unexpectedly" Sink; How did Economists Blow the Call?

Courtesy of Mish 

I cannot help but laugh at economists who refuse to see the economy is slowing dramatically, and somehow think manufacturing is going to lead the way to recovery.

Check out this headline on Bloomberg prior to the durable goods report: Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Probably Rebounded in June

July 28 (Bloomberg) — Orders for durable goods probably increased in June for the sixth time in the past seven months, showing business spending is supporting the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 1 percent after dropping 0.6 percent in May, according to the median of 76 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Excluding transportation gear, orders may have grown 0.4 percent.

“Business spending, particularly for capital equipment, is holding up,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “Ordering is strong as companies ramp up and resupply.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said July 26 that there is fundamental strength in the economy. “I think there is underlying strength there that is still there,” Plosser said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Washington.

In the Bloomberg survey, the median and average forecasts were for an increase of +1%. The high forecast was a preposterous 4%.

Excluding transportation, the median forecast was +.4% and average +.2%.

Individual Forecasts 1.5 Percent or Greater

  • Barclays Capital +1.5%
  • BNP Paribas +4.0%
  • Citi +1.6%
  • Desjardins Group +2.0%
  • High Frequency Economics +2.0%
  • J.P. Morgan Chase +1.7%
  • Janney Montgomery Scott +3.2%
  • Landesbank Berlin +2.8%
  • Nomura Securities Intl. +3.0%
  • PineBridge Investments +2.5%
  • Raymond James +2.0%
  • RBC Capital Markets +2.3%
  • Ried, Thunberg & Co. +1.5%
  • Thomson Reuters/IFR +2.9%
  • Wrightson Associates +1.5%

Individual Forecasts Below Zero Percent

  • 4CAST Ltd. -.5%
  • IHS Global Insight -0.8%
  • MF Global -1.0%
  • Morgan Keegan & Co. -0.5%

 The Actual Report

Inquiring minds are reading the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders June 2010

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 0.8 percent May decrease.

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent.


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Phil's Favorites

Students who plan to seek more education than needed for their career earn more money

 

Students who plan to seek more education than needed for their career earn more money

Extra education has been shown to pay off in the long run. John O'Boyle/Flickr

Courtesy of Soobin Kim, Michigan State University

...



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Zero Hedge

Famed IPO Analyst Call WeWork Prospectus "Masterpiece Of Obfuscation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, when WeWork filed its highly anticipated prospectus for the upcoming IPO that seeks to value the company as much as $50 billion, we shared the one chart that summarized - we thought - all that was wrong with the company: the fact that even as revenue has risen, and it has to rise much, much more for the company to ever grow into its massive valuation - it has burned ever more cash.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Steel About To Breakdown And Send Bearish Economic Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Steel Industry suggesting that a recession is nearing? In my humble opinion, the jury is still out on this one.

This chart from Marketsmith.com takes a look at the patterns of Steel ETF (SLX).

SLX has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of trading range (1). The persistent decline over the past year has it testing the bottom of this trading range at (2).

The weakness over the past year has it below long-term moving averages as its relative strength r...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly is set to speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak in Salt Lake City, Utah at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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The Technical Traders

The Next Breakdown And The Setup

Courtesy of Technical Traders

If you’ve been following our research long enough, you’ll remember that we often discuss Fibonacci Price Theory and how we use it to try to identify opportunities and trends in the markets.  The basic premise of Fibonacci Price Theory is that price is always seeking to establish newer highs or newer lows with every rotation on the charts.  The theory is rather simple to understand and learn and it helps easily identify where support, resistance, and the trend is established.  Let’s take a minute to go over the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory before we continue.

This first example of Fibonacci Price Theory trend is a simple example that highlights the basic premise of the the...



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Lee's Free Thinking

The Treasury Supply Drumbeat Has Begun

Courtesy of Lee Adler

The beat goes on. The US Treasury announced a 30 year TIPS issue today, bringing net new Treasury supply for the month so far to $119 billion. 

Here are the details:

Term and Type: 29-Year 6-Month TIPS

Reopening: Yes

Offering Amount: 7 Billion

Announcement Date: 08/15/2019

Auction Date: 08/22/2019

Issue Date: 08/30/2019

Maturity Date: 02/15/2049

PDF | XML

Supply will pound the financial markets to a pulp as far as the eye can see. Those who are currently panicking to buy Treasuries at these ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

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Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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