Posts Tagged ‘earnings forecast’

THE EXPECTATION RATIO CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG EARNINGS

THE EXPECTATION RATIO CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG EARNINGS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Q3 earnings are officially over and it was one for the record books.  75% of all firms beat earnings estimates while just 14% missed.   Companies didn’t just beat earnings – they beat earnings by a wide margin.  The average historical beat is just over 3% while firms beat by over 7% in Q3.  This is a continuation of a trend we have been talking about ever since the Expectation Ratio reversed course earlier this year.

The analysts have been fantastically wrong about the earnings outlook and that trend looks like it is likely to continue.  The latest reading on the ER shows another strong reading of 1.27, but a short-term downtrend.  This is a clear sign that we have likely seen a peak in the divergence between analysts and reality.  In other words, the analysts are catching up to reality.  For now, however, the long-term trend remains positive and the ratio continues to forecast an environment of very low expectations and stronger than expected earnings.

Curiously, the real underlying organic growth in earnings has not been all that strong.  Firms continue to beat on very strong margin expansion that is primarily based on cost cutting.  Just 29% of all S%P firms reported year over year revenue improvement last quarter.  Of course, Wall Street isn’t a world based in reality, but a world based on reality compared to expectations.  Despite this organic weakness, expectations remain very depressed and as long as firms can overcome these low expectations the market is likely to remain buoyant.

 THE EXPECTATION RATIO CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG EARNINGS

 


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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Zero Hedge

To The Stars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Every once in a while, especially at market extremes, it’s good to take a stake of the bigger picture. Now that the market, highly encouraged by the Fed, has baked in a rate cut for July (25bp or 50bp we shall see) a quick look at some yearly charts may provide some eye opening context as to where and when this rate cut is supposed to take place.

...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar - 07-17-19

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:02:11 Indexes Charts
00:02:59 Energy Charts
00:04:28 S&P500
00:18:48 Money Talk Portfolio
00:31:25 7 Steps to Consistently Making 30-40% Annual Returns
00:35:41 Top Trades
00:45:33 Long Term Portfolio
00:49:34 WPM
00:50:34 NFLX
01:06:31 Petroleum Status Report
01:09:16 Money Talk Portfolio Review
01:23:40 AAPL
01:33:06 Natural Gas
01:38:43 Charts and Portfolio Reviewa
01:44:20 Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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