Posts Tagged ‘Economic Cycle Research Institute’

ECRI WLI “Flattens Out” at -9.8% – ECRI says “Gage is Fine”

ECRI WLI "Flattens Out" at -9.8% – ECRI says "Gage is Fine"

Courtesy of Mish

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Co-founders, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continue to pour out statements about the ECRI WLI that are worth taking a close look at, if not outright challenging them.

Please consider Know How to Read WLI.

Sir, “Out on a limb, the ECRI weekly leading indicator … suggests a double-dip recession is imminent,” according to James Mackintosh (The Short View, August 4). This is a popular misconception pushed by pessimistic pundits.

Let’s review what the Weekly Leading index (WLI) has done this year. After rising to a two-and-a-quarter-year high by end-April, it plunged for all of two months – before flattening out and finally edging up to a six-week high by end-July. That’s hardly a recession signal.

Imagine flying in an aircraft that hits a huge air pocket and plunges 5,000ft in 10 seconds. That would leave you quite shaken up, but it doesn’t mean the aircraft’s about to crash – unless it keeps falling. That’s pretty much what’s happened with the WLI. Unless it turns down again and then keeps falling, it wouldn’t make sense to predict an imminent recession.

Many self-proclaimed experts have been back-fitting our data, looking at the WLI the wrong way, and screaming that the end is near. This is like people saying they don’t remember an aircraft dropping so fast and not crashing, while blaming the instrument makers for not trusting their own altimeter. Well, we do trust it. Bottom line, the gauge is just fine – as long as you know how to read it.

When there really is danger of an imminent recession, it will be signalled by a cyclical downturn in the WLI itself rather than its growth rate. But that hasn’t happened yet.

ECRI WLI

click on chart for sharper image

When there is "danger" of an imminent recession by the ECRI’s calls, history suggests we will have been in a recession for months. Nonetheless, one must be careful of "reading" indicators, especially when no one knows for sure what the hell it even consists of.

Instead, I would like to point out that two weeks of flattening after an enormous plunge to -10.8 is hardly worth calling "flattening". Let’s see where the index goes from here before we talk about "flattening" after that unprecedented nosedive.…
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ECRI Falls Deeper into the Abyss

ECRI Falls Deeper into the Abyss

Courtesy of Bondsquawk 

The Economic Cycle Research Institute released its Weekly Leading Indices for the week ending July 23. While the Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 121.1 from a downward revised prior period reading of 120.6, the Weekly Growth Rate Index fell further by two-tenths of a percent to -10.7 percent.  This latest reading marks the 12th decline in a row and 8th straight week in negative territory, dating back to the first week in June.

For our new Bondsquawk readers, check out this to understand the significance of this leading economic indicator. 


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ECRI TURNS NEGATIVE

ECRI TURNS NEGATIVE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Via Barrons:

The Economic Cycle Research Institute today offered up its view of last week’s “weekly leading indicators,” a closely watched private mailing, today showed a dip in the indicator for the week ended last Friday to 123.2, a decline of 3.5%, in contrast to the 0.3% rise the preceding week.

The Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, however, remarked that “While the plunge in WLI growth to a one-year low assures a significant slowing in U.S. economic growth in the coming months, the recent weakness has not lasted long enough to signal a new recession threat.”

The ECRI notice follows better-than-expected consumer confidence data this morning from the University of Michigan, but also a smaller-than-expected gain in business inventories in April, this morning’s weak retail sales data for May and, of course, last Friday’s disappointing jobs number.

ECRI2 ECRI TURNS NEGATIVE 


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Get Ready for a Double Dip

Get Ready for a Double Dip

Courtesy of John Nyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

In my view, it’s becoming increasingly likely that we’re rapidly heading towards a double dip recession.  It won’t be tomorrow or this week or even next month, but many warning flags point towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could very well be facing a new leg down in the world’s economic situation. 

We’ll take a look at some of the factors at work but first let’s take a look at the past week and where we stand at Wall Street Sector Selector. 

Looking at My Screens 

Obviously the volatility that has come back into the markets in recent weeks was in play last week as the Dow experienced its third worst drop of the year on Friday, fast on the heels of Wednesday’s rocket ride up. 

This week’s action took our Standard, 2X and Option Master Portfolios to 100% cash as we took profits and cut losses during the week. 

Currently our portfolios look like this year to date: 

Sector Selector Standard:                  +7.5%

Sector Selector 2X:                              -17.8%

Sector Selector Option Master:      +47.1% 

This week’s positions were closed for the following gains/losses: 

VXX:                    +50.3%

EFZ:                     +2.8%

YXI:                      -8.5%

PSQ:                    -5.3%

EEV:                    +5.9%

SKF:                    -12.9%

December S&P Put Option:   +29.7%   

We remain in the “Red Flag Flying” mode, expecting lower prices ahead.  However, almost incredibly, our indicators are moving towards a new “buy” signal that we might see confirmed within the next days or weeks. 

A quite likely scenario is a relief, short term rally through August-September, followed by further declines into 4th Quarter and next year. 

Whatever happens, we will continue working both the “long” and “short” side of this market that remains unbelievably volatile and challenging. 

The View from 35,000 Feet 

This week’s action was driven by conflicting forces but ended largely negative, with the S&P 500 unable to break through its 200 Day Moving Average.  As we’ve said before, this average is widely viewed as the demarcation line between bull and bear markets, and until or if the major indexes are able to sustain positive momentum above this line, we can consider that we are in a bear market, at least for the short term. 

The big catalyst for Friday’s sell off, of…
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We Face Extraordinary Danger and Extraordinary Opportunity

We Face Extraordinary Danger and Extraordinary Opportunity

Courtesy of John Nyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

Black Cat Looking at Goldfish in Bowl

As I look across the global landscape today, I see extraordinary danger and extraordinary opportunity. 

Danger comes from the deteriorating economic environment at home and abroad and extraordinary opportunity comes from the enormous volatility and opportunities to “short” the market followed by a once in a generation opportunity to “buy dollars for dimes” once a bottom to this market has been reached.

Over the next five years I believe we will see more bankruptcies, both individual and sovereign, than we’ve seen in our history and we’ll also see more millionaires and billionaires created than ever before.

As individuals we will each make one of two choices.  We can assume the “deer in the headlights” posture and stash our money under the mattress, or we can educate ourselves, take prudently managed risk and work to take advantage of the enormous opportunities that will present themselves. 

Looking at My Screens 

This week we saw enormous volatility in every asset class as global forces washed over the markets of the world and investors/traders tried to position themselves on the only side of the market that counts, “the right side.” 

The downtrend that started in April is still firmly in place, notwithstanding Thursday’s rally from oversold levels and we remain in the “Red Flag Flying” mode expecting lower prices ahead. 

Taking a look at the chart of the S&P 500 we see:

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com 

In the chart above, we can see that the S&P remains just below its 200 Day Moving Average which will provide significant resistance while the MACD remains on a sell signal but momentum is turning up.  Above the blue 50 Day Moving Average is rolling over and the 200 Day red line is flattening which is also a bearish indicator. 

So for the time being, at least, we remain in a bearish configuration, expecting lower prices ahead. 

By the way, if you share our view and expectations of lower prices, this week’s mega rally on Thursday presented some extraordinary buying opportunities on the “short” side with relatively low risk at the moment.  I’ll be describing these in detail to my subscribers in our Position/Stop Loss Update this weekend. 

Members note that this week’s Position/Stop Loss Update will be sent on Monday afternoon due to markets being…
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Phil's Favorites

What China wants: 3 things motivating China's position in trade negotiations with the US

 

What China wants: 3 things motivating China's position in trade negotiations with the US

Courtesy of Penelope B. Prime, Georgia State University

Relations between the U.S. and China have deteriorated sharply in recent days after trade negotiations broke down, leading some to suggest we are on the cusp of a new “cold war.”

President Donald Trump blames the resumption of hostilities on China. Specifically, he and his negotiators say their Chinese counterparts backtracked on an agreement to change laws aimed at enforcing the ...



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Zero Hedge

White House Planned To Use Huawei As Trade 'Bargaining Chip'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

If there was any lingering doubt that President Trump has treated Huawei like a 'bargaining chip' during trade talks with the Chinese, Bloomberg just put the issue to rest.

In a report sourced to administration insiders, BBG reported that the Trump administration waited to blacklist Huawei until talks with the Chinese had hit an impasse, because they were concerned that targeting Huawei would disrupt the talks.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities; Long-Term Bottom Being Created This Month?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodities creating a long-term bottom? What the index does at (3) over the next few weeks, will go a long way to answering this important question!

Commodities don’t have much to brag about over the past 8-years, as lower highs have taken place since the peak back in 2011. After the peak in 2011, they have created falling channel (1).

The index hit the top of this channel the prior two months at (2), creating back to back bearish reversal patterns.

Softness this month has the index testing 2017 lows and rising support at (3). While ...



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Insider Scoop

Off-Roaders Are In Buying Mood, BMO Says In Polaris Upgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

A long winter and the worst of the U.S.-China trade war may both be in the rearview mirror for off-road vehicle maker Polaris Industries Inc. (NYSE: PII), BMO Capital Markets said Tuesday.

The Analyst

Gerrick Johnson upgraded Polaris from Mark...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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